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Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game» Forums » General

Subject: Chances of Raiders hitting Galactica rss

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David Goldfarb
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In Exodus games, it can often happen that you have many Raiders firing on Galactica, hitting on an 8. I grew curious to see how activating Raiders compared to activating Basestars, assuming 2 Basestars on the board, so I played around with a spreadsheet and generated this table:

# of hits 0 1 2 3 4 5 1+ 2+
# of Raiders
8 0.344 0.393 0.196 0.056 0.010 0.001 0.656 0.264
9 0.301 0.387 0.221 0.074 0.016 0.002 0.699 0.313
10 0.263 0.376 0.242 0.092 0.023 0.004 0.737 0.361
11 0.230 0.362 0.258 0.111 0.032 0.006 0.770 0.408
12 0.201 0.345 0.271 0.129 0.042 0.009 0.799 0.453
13 0.176 0.327 0.281 0.147 0.052 0.013 0.824 0.496
14 0.154 0.308 0.286 0.164 0.064 0.018 0.846 0.537
15 0.135 0.289 0.289 0.179 0.077 0.024 0.865 0.576
16 0.118 0.270 0.289 0.193 0.089 0.031 0.882 0.612
17 0.103 0.251 0.287 0.205 0.102 0.038 0.897 0.646
18 0.090 0.232 0.282 0.215 0.115 0.046 0.910 0.677
19 0.079 0.215 0.276 0.223 0.128 0.055 0.921 0.706
20 0.069 0.198 0.268 0.230 0.140 0.064 0.931 0.733

# Basestars
2 0.141 0.469 0.391 0.859 0.391


The first column is the number of Raiders on the board, the other columns are the probability of getting a certain number of hits, summarized at the end as "1 or more" and "2 or more". Corresponding numbers for the Basestars are shown at the bottom.

This yields the interesting and slightly counterintuitive result that you need to be shooting with 15 or more Raiders in order to get a better chance of at least one hit, but you only need 11 in order to get a better chance of at least two. With 10 or fewer, you're probably better off (from a Cylon perspective) activating the Basestars or the Basestar Bridge.

10 Raiders is the breakpoint where the expected amount of damage from activating Raiders becomes higher than the guaranteed 1 damage from using Basestar Bridge -- of course, with BB there's the tradeoff that you get to draw two and choose one, which may make that more attractive.

ETA: Actually, my arithmetic is wrong there. That breakpoint comes at 9. The expected damage from two Basestars is 1.25; the point where expected damage from Raiders exceeds that is 11 Raiders shooting.

After playing around a bit more, I generated this chart, as well:

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Michael
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We just had a game where cylons tried to win by damage with 18 raiders and 2 basestars on the board and cylon fleet in play. They chose to activate raiders twice and ended up only hitting twice out of the 4 damage they needed, with humans winning the game after much debate over whether it would be better activating basestars or raiders.

Very interesting chart that I'll be sure to link to the people who were in that game.
 
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pkmnrckt wrote:
We just had a game where cylons tried to win by damage with 18 raiders and 2 basestars on the board and cylon fleet in play. They chose to activate raiders twice and ended up only hitting twice out of the 4 damage they needed, with humans winning the game after much debate over whether it would be better activating basestars or raiders.

Very interesting chart that I'll be sure to link to the people who were in that game.
We had one game where 12 raiders activated against Gal. Gal. needed 5 more damage to get destroyed. The first raider managed to roll an 8. The first raider managed to also hit the fuel token (among 7 remaining damage tokens) FTW wow.
 
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David Goldfarb
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The bit above about "expected damage" is a little silly -- it was late when I posted it. Basically each Basestar gives an expected damage of 5/8 and each Raider gives an expected damage of 1/8, it's exactly linear, so of course the breakpoint for that is going to be 11 Raiders.

If you're trying to win on damage, activating 18 Raiders twice is clearly better than activating 2 Basestars -- the chance of getting 4 damage with the Raiders is about 46%, with the Basestars is about 15%.
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David Goldfarb
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...and, actually, I've just realized that my 46% there is the chance of getting 2 or more hits with 18, twice in a row. But in the situation you describe, the Cylons needed a total of 4 hits from 36 shots, so 1 hit the first time and 3 the next would have done it (to take one example). The chance of at least 4 hits from 36 shots is better than 62%.
 
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David Goldfarb
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Obviously the human crew will want to keep one or two civvies on the board. The traitors among them might find ways of stopping that. (For instance, using Communications to move them to where they die.)
 
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TheToaster wrote:
Why it's always an option to keep a civvie on the board if you have a big swarm arrive so they have to chase it around in circles laugh.
Starbuck did that in one of our games.... When the other cylon was outed due to a loyalty peek from another player, she figured with 2 pre-sleeper phase cylons, may as well reveal. 1st action was to escort the last civvy on the board (One of the other 2 you start off with at the beg. of the game was already escorted in an earlier turn), 2nd action from Expert Pilot was to reveal. That only left 3 raiders to shoot and Galactica and did hit once through several activations, but it did seem like a better thing to do since we could've just hit up Comms. to move it.
 
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