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Commands & Colors: Napoleonics» Forums » General

Subject: Reverse tendencies rss

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Guillaume Gleize
France
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Well ... now that I finaly found the stats of the 2 last official battles of the base box (Quatre Bras & Waterloo), I got an answer to the question of my previous thread:

Quatre-Bras: 61% of french victories
Waterloo: 81% of french victories (!)

Believe it or not but, even as being french myself, I was quite disappointed by thoses stats. I think we all here are lovers of this game but also lovers of history. I hope this stat based only on 22 sessions will change a while with the experience.

In the other hand the good news is that I got an answer to my initial question: Overall the 15 scenarios, the allied armies are only winning 50,1% of the time (so the french 49,9%). We can say this CCN Base box is definitively BALANCED!
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Dom Rougier
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You don't think that Waterloo was likely to be won by the French? Napoleon was forced to rush, play his hand and attack head on, but:

“It has been a damned serious business. Blücher and I have lost 30,000 men. It has been a damned nice thing, the nearest-run-thing you ever saw in your life, by God!”

Quatre-Bras is perhaps another story.
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Guillaume Gleize
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Do you mean that the conditions were so good for the french that if the real battle was done again with random new conditions (better weather, different decisions etc ...) the french would win it 80% of the time?

If you're right: so the scenario of this game is right.
No irony: it's just a real question ... for me I donno.

We both must take care of national temptations like:

(English): We were supposed to loose but our courage and intelligence etc ...
(french): If the english had been alone, the weather better, thoses young grenadiers more experienced & the orders of Napoleon respected etc ...

Let's try to stay free spirit gentlemen.

Great victory for the allies indeed.

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Dom Rougier
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Well, I don't know what I'd peg the actual percentages at, but I'm happy with a French advantage, especially without the Prussians and a larger campaign to worry about.

80% does seem high, but I'd probably be happy with 60% or so. You're quite right about the national bias, and since this presumably carries over into the multitude of books written, then it's a very difficult thing to judge fairly. I've also played the Waterloo scenario the least of any of them, so that's a factor as well.

The remainder of the scenarios are definitely pretty even - I've had crushing defeats and mighty victories on most of them, in equal parts, so I'm pretty happy with the balance overall.

 
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Was George Orwell an Optimist?
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Abdullah Ibrahim - African River
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As 22 sessions are nothing like a statistically valid sample, any conclusions drawn are just smoke.
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Guillaume Gleize
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I agree that 22 sessions isn't enough to have a stat at even +/- 10% ... but it's a serious tendency IMAO.

Anyway: we all agree on one point: this CCN base extention is balanced!

cool
 
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Miguel (working on TENNISmind...)
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Caen
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My latest game: Big*Bang, a simple abstract about the first minutes of the Universe
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The problem is not only the number of games, but also who played them. If I play 10 times against an inexperienced (or bad!) player, then I'm biasing the statistics a lot, until many many other people compensate the effect...
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Was George Orwell an Optimist?
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franchi wrote:
The problem is not only the number of games, but also who played them. If I play 10 times against an inexperienced (or bad!) player, then I'm biasing the statistics a lot, until many many other people compensate the effect...

Even if they have considerable experience, isolated players tend to fall into group-think patterns which tacitly over-value or under-value various game elements. It takes a lot of plays by a large and diverse pool of players to get realistic assessments of balance.
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Angelus Seniores
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from a historical point of view, the percentages should be reversed, ie +-81% chance to win Quatre-bras for the french and +-61% for Waterloo.

at quatre-bras, marechal Ney started with much more troops than the Brits, but choose to wait instead of attack at that time, later on, as more british troops arrived, it was a much more difficult battle but still they had slight superiority and won.

At waterloo, there's not much that can be done to compensate for the Prussian reinforcements later that day, tilting quantitative superiority to the allies side. the french mistakes just added to that.
I think, whatever the conditions, allies would still win the battle. but an early win vs the brits alone was certainly possible and could discourage the prussians to continue the fight.
The biggest mistake the french made was to accept the battle with the Brits in the defensive position of their choice.
Had Napoleon somehow flanked or lured Wellington into changing his position, it would have been another story.
 
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