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Subject: On the way to Number 1? rss

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Andrew Young
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Could this one sit atop Twilight Struggle as the number 1 wargame on BGG?

Its at 14 now. Climbing has slowed as it would toward the top... I wonder what will happen to the ranking after the general Mayfair release....



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Scott Petersen
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medievalbanquet wrote:
Could this one sit atop Twilight Struggle as the number 1 wargame on BGG?

Its at 14 now. Climbing has slowed as it would toward the top... I wonder what will happen to the ranking after the general Mayfair release....




Considering its average rating is lower than TS' rating and will only decrease with more exposure, I don't think TS has anything to worry about. Ratings tend to decrease as the fan ratings are diluted.
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What are the differences between the War Game Ranks and the Board Game Ranks? I noticed that they're not the same as going here and sorting by rank:

http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgamecategory/1019/wargame

I poked around the Help section and Wiki and nothing jumped out at me. Just curious.
 
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Basiliv wrote:
What are the differences between the War Game Ranks and the Board Game Ranks? I noticed that they're not the same as going here and sorting by rank:

http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgamecategory/1019/wargame

I poked around the Help section and Wiki and nothing jumped out at me. Just curious.

The system classifies some users as wargamers based on their rating some hidden threshold quantity of wargamers. Only those votes count toward the wargame ranking. I forgot about that part in my comment above. However, I would suspect wargamers would favor TS.
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scottredracecar wrote:
medievalbanquet wrote:
Could this one sit atop Twilight Struggle as the number 1 wargame on BGG?

Its at 14 now. Climbing has slowed as it would toward the top... I wonder what will happen to the ranking after the general Mayfair release....




Considering its average rating is lower than TS' rating and will only decrease with more exposure, I don't think TS has anything to worry about. Ratings tend to decrease as the fan ratings are diluted.

Why must it decrease with more exposure?
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scottredracecar wrote:
Basiliv wrote:
What are the differences between the War Game Ranks and the Board Game Ranks? I noticed that they're not the same as going here and sorting by rank:

http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgamecategory/1019/wargame

I poked around the Help section and Wiki and nothing jumped out at me. Just curious.

The system classifies some users as wargamers based on their rating some hidden threshold quantity of wargamers. Only those votes count toward the wargame ranking. I forgot about that part in my comment above. However, I would suspect wargamers would favor TS.


I'm a wargamer and I favor Snow.

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out4blood wrote:
scottredracecar wrote:
medievalbanquet wrote:
Could this one sit atop Twilight Struggle as the number 1 wargame on BGG?

Its at 14 now. Climbing has slowed as it would toward the top... I wonder what will happen to the ranking after the general Mayfair release....




Considering its average rating is lower than TS' rating and will only decrease with more exposure, I don't think TS has anything to worry about. Ratings tend to decrease as the fan ratings are diluted.

Why must it decrease with more exposure?


Exactly. Someone's got to be #1... why not Snow?

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out4blood wrote:
Why must it decrease with more exposure?

It's not an absolute certainty, Tim, but the odds of it happening, based on logic and past observation, are overwhelming. The first players of a game are those who are attracted to it, giving them a built-in bias. If the game is good, it will get inflated ratings. Word gets out and now those who aren't necessarily predisposed to liking the game will try it. Many will love it and some won't, but overall, that second group will almost always rate the game lower. Then, you get people who try the hot thing, even though they aren't the game's intended audience. This group will give a goodly share of negative ratings, simply because it's a game they could never like. The overall effect is that the ratings steadily go down after the first group of gamers rate it.

As I said, it doesn't have to play out that way. But if you look at the ratings over time, that's almost always what happens. Snow started out with ratings close to 8.4 and they've steadily dropped to a little over 8.2. That's still a fantastic rating and the drop has been less than I've seen for other games. But history is still holding true and if the game becomes more readily available, the decline will almost certainly continue.
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A recent game that has defied gravity a bit in that way is Dominant Species. It started out drifting around 8.00 and has stayed there ever since... Its part of the reason it is now the #20 game when I always expected it would cap out around 50, as I did not think it would ever remain at the level it was after those people who would normally be disinterested in it start trying it.
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scottredracecar wrote:
Basiliv wrote:
What are the differences between the War Game Ranks and the Board Game Ranks? I noticed that they're not the same as going here and sorting by rank:

http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgamecategory/1019/wargame

I poked around the Help section and Wiki and nothing jumped out at me. Just curious.

The system classifies some users as wargamers based on their rating some hidden threshold quantity of wargamers. Only those votes count toward the wargame ranking. I forgot about that part in my comment above. However, I would suspect wargamers would favor TS.

Thanks Scott, that's interesting. So I assume that means that when compared to, say, Struggle of Empires, not enough wargamers ranked Struggle to give it a Wargame Rank. Instead, a larger number of "strategy gamers" ranked it, and too few "strategy gamers" have ranked Acres to give it a Strategy Game Rank?

EDIT: Woops, I now see that Acres has a Strategy Game Rank, but pretend it doesn't.
 
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Considering that it has such a high avarage already it will certainly come into the top 100 any minute now and probably go as high as top 30.

But the trend is going down. I've been watching the avarage for some time now and when there were about 300 votes we had 8.34, but right now we're down at 8.24, so expect it to drop even more and hence not compete with twilight struggle. But it will get high maybe even top 10, but we'll have to wait and see.

The thing is that I don't really believe this to be a regular players game as agricola and Puerto rico and hence I think the rating will decrease even more when more regular players get a look at it... Of course I'm probably wrong since twilight struggle is so high, but may it was even higher (around 9?) at an avarage with this 500 votes.
 
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I realize the topic here is about AFAoS becoming #1. But the thread also has discussed war-gamers and the way they rate games. I think this brings up another related topic: The Rating System.

I think we would have more accurate ratings if no one was allowed to rate a game until it had been out one year. By then, the initial glitter will have worn away and perhaps more accurate ratings would emerge...(perhaps).

I know that I have thought games were awesome after 3-4 plays, and maybe even after 8-10. But as new games came out over the next six months, the "great" game of Essen becomes a "good" game in light of the new one that I just got. I have deliberately tried to hold off rating a game until I had played it 10 times - but for most games, that could take several years (I will play it 5-7 times in the first 2-3 months, then forget in the glitter of a newer game, and not play it over 1-2 times in the next year or so).

Perhaps if we all had waited a year to rate Twilight, or Puerto Rico, or Agricola, etc. the games would be nowhere near where they are rated today!? But we might have a more accurate rating. Currently, I would give AFAoS a 10. But will I do so a year from now? And to be honest, most of us don't go back and re-rate old games.




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out4blood wrote:
Why must it decrease with more exposure?

I don't know about must, but it's likely. See regression toward the mean.
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Iain K
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Yep, that's why.
 
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citizen k wrote:
Yep, that's why.

That, plus the assumption that the mean is less than the present rating.
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I haven't rated it yet. If I can figure out the French counters to certain British strats, I will likely be giving it a high rating...

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Aldaron wrote:
That, plus the assumption that the mean is less than the present rating.

A Bayesian statistics approach to the question need not make this assumption. Instead, based off the fact that a large majority of games have lower average scores, it is much more likely that the population average rating for AFAoS is lower than its current value.
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Andrew Young
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Ok, so what's the over under on it breaking the top 10?


Poll
Are you taking the over or the under on Snow being in the top 10 Wargames on BGG?
Over
Under
      49 answers
Poll created by medievalbanquet


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medievalbanquet wrote:
Could this one sit atop Twilight Struggle as the number 1 wargame on BGG?

Its at 14 now. Climbing has slowed as it would toward the top... I wonder what will happen to the ranking after the general Mayfair release....





How about as a Eurogame? How does it rate with the rest of the pack? Of course, my ignorance could, once again, be on display. On that survey from a week or two ago, I went with it as a Eurogame, rather than a wargame. For whatever it is worth, I think it is a great game, which sometimes makes me sigh over this "wargame/eurogame" debate.

goo

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fusag wrote:
Aldaron wrote:
That, plus the assumption that the mean is less than the present rating.

A Bayesian statistics approach to the question need not make this assumption. Instead, based off the fact that a large majority of games have lower average scores, it is much more likely that the population average rating for AFAoS is lower than its current value.


Yes, but would it then still be described as regression to the mean?
 
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fusag wrote:
Aldaron wrote:
That, plus the assumption that the mean is less than the present rating.

A Bayesian statistics approach to the question need not make this assumption. Instead, based off the fact that a large majority of games have lower average scores, it is much more likely that the population average rating for AFAoS is lower than its current value.

I bet you can see for yourself why that doesn't address my point.
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medievalbanquet wrote:
Ok, so what's the over under on it breaking the top 10?


Poll
Are you taking the over or the under on Snow being in the top 10 Wargames on BGG?
Over
Under
      49 answers
Poll created by medievalbanquet




Forgive me, but what's 'over and under' mean?
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Andrew Young
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Over in this case means Snow's ranking will settle above 10 while under is below 10.

Ever heard the term as it relates to sports?



 
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Went down to 13 from 14 over night!

 
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medievalbanquet wrote:
Over in this case means Snow's ranking will settle above 10 while under is below 10.

Ever heard the term as it relates to sports?

Yes, the sports term is why this is confusing and not welldefined. What you have written is about the same thing as before. Explain!

As I see it
Above 10 in sports mean something good, that is you have a better placement so 5 or 3 are examples of this.

While Above in mathematics and when numbers are just seen as numbers often means larger than 10, so numbers like 15 and 22.

When it comes to number there is nothing like "Above", but larger or smaller. So redefine the poll please.


... Or maybe its just me who's a mathematician here.
 
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