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Subject: Infiltrate then Move? rss

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Roger Grossman
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I think this has been answered somewhere, but I can't find it: Can a unit Infiltrate to one card and then move to another in the same turn (since it's not marked exposed after it Infiltrates)?

Thanks,

RG
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Mark L
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I'm pretty sure they could (assuming you have the HQ/Staff handy to give the additional order, of course).
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Chris Hobbs
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I think this is right, but it has the odd effect of making it easier to traverse terrain when under fire then when there's no fire. Without fire, the furthest a unit can move is a single card. Infiltration could allow a unit to move several cards:

* Infiltrate during BN HQ activation impulse
* Infiltrate during CO HQ activation impulse
* Infiltrate during CO Staff HQ activation impulse
* Infiltrate during PLT HQ Initiative impulse
* Infiltrate during Staff Initiative HQ impulse
* Infiltrate one more time during general initiative
* Finally, move during general initiative (and gain an exposed marker)

Perhaps not the most realistic example, but possible under the rules. You could have a squad make a lap of the board in a single turn
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Bendik Vedeler
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Actually that chain is not possible under the rules, as the rules prohibit a unit performing the same action more than once in a turn (specifically I think the rules prohibit performing two actions with the same name, but I don't have the rules handy at the moment, and the end-result in this case is the same: you can only infiltrate once per turn).
 
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Chris Hobbs
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From 4.2: "A unit may perform more than one Action in a given Impulse, but
it may perform only one (1) Action of any named type in that Impulse."

It can't repeat an action during a single impulse, but it can be given the same order in multiple impulses.
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Pelle Nilsson
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If you have adjacent cards with trenches you can also move repeatedly (once per impulse) since that also allows you to move without being exposed.

(At least under v1 rules.)
 
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Pelle Nilsson
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LancerDeuce wrote:

* Infiltrate during PLT HQ Initiative impulse
* Infiltrate during Staff Initiative HQ impulse


NRBH, but I think this is just one combined impulse, so only one infiltrate move not two for these? At least under v1 rules as I remember them.
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Chris Hobbs
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PLT and Staff are combined in one impulse under the activation phase, but they are in separate impulses during the initiative phase.

And thanks for the reminder about trenches. I'd forgotten that possibility.
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Roger Grossman
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Quote:
I think this is right, but it has the odd effect of making it easier to traverse terrain when under fire then when there's no fire.


Yeah, that's precisely what seems weird, and I have a hard time believing that was the intent of the design. Pending an explanation from the designer to the contrary (and taking note of the trench exception), I think I may put in a house rule that after a unit infiltrates, it is marked "Infiltrated" but not "Exposed," which means it doesn't suffer any adverse NCM but can't move or infiltrate again that turn. I tend to play more on Vassal than on the table (MUCH easier to keep things orderly), and this can easily be effected through the "label" function.

It's just hard for me to accept that a unit could traverse more cards by infiltrating, which sounds like it would significantly slow you down, then it can by moving. As I say, though, maybe Ben has a perfectly good explanation that will produce one of those cherished, 'Ah, I get it" moments.

RG
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Chris Hobbs
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I was giving this some thought as well, as it is clearly a bit hokey.

I wonder if an alternative solution would be to allow units to move as many cards while exposed as they wanted (assuming commands) as long as they only travel on cleared cards not in enemy LOS.

The downside of this is that they might move through cards that will, later that turn, turn out to be within LOS of a freshly revealed enemy.
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Roger Grossman
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Quote:
The downside of this is that they might move through cards that will, later that turn, turn out to be within LOS of a freshly revealed enemy.

Yeah, that's a problem. Another thing is that this game, unlike most other tac sims, seems to be modeling events very near the point of contact (a few hexes, in other sims). It therefore seems to me units are generally going to be pretty cautious about their movements (so to speak).

In other words, whereas units might well have the physical capacity to keep moving, there's a lot of fire going on nearby, much of it from unspotted enemies, and I can imagine that putting the breaks on movement (although I hasten to add I am not speaking from any experience).

What do you do think of my mark-as-infiltrated idea, Chris?

RG
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IIRC the original rule (going back almost 10 years now) was for a "Moved can fire" and a "Moved can't fire" marker. Eventually it was changed to one "Exposed -2" marker to account for units taking fire from unspotted enemy.
I'll try to find the original explanation.

IMHO, during normal movement your troops are looking for the enemy, they are in a move-to-contact type of posture. They are taking time to find the enemy, but of course the enemy always find you first
It's not an admin type of movement where guys are just walking along a road (that happens in the staging area).
Remember, per their training and doctrine (even today) once they cross the Line of Departure "enemy contact is expected". (as opposed to "likely" or "possible")
That's the point of an LD, a line beyond which you are expected to find the enemy.

Infiltration movement represents units attempting to move along covered and/or concealed routes, avoiding known enemy fire. That's why it requires card draws and failure marks them Exposed. Success has them at least concealed (not Exposed).

Given the action point expenditure card draws limitations how likely is it that a unit can Infiltrate 3-4 cards? Did anyone crunch the math?
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Mark L
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On CSW, Ben posted the following response to a query about multiple moves using trench/bunker/pillbox cover:

Ben Hull - Jun 9, 2009 3:52 am (#2755)
Quote:
Query:
It seems to me that you can (a)buse that to move a unit 5 cards in one turn, in the unlikely event that you have enough cards with trenches (2 or 3?) and enough Commands and different Commander/Staff available to give the unit one (Infiltrate) Move order per phase. But maybe I miss some fine print.

Ben's reply:
No fine print, the systemic limitations you mentioned should keep things in check

For the case of multiple infiltration actions, the systemic limitations to pull it off are even greater: card draw, plus VOF on card moving to/from. So I think this was mostly a matter of simplifying the rules. Trying to orchestrate such a move is probably a waste of effort, IMO.

The numbers:

There are 10 of 50 action cards with the infiltrate icon. So assuming a full deck, chances of success are:

1 draw: 20% (10/50)
2 draws: 36.3% (20% + (1-20%)*10/49)
3 draws: 49.6% (36.3% + (1-36.3%)*10/48)
4 draws: 60.3% (49.6% + (1-49.6%)*10/47)

(That's assuming I calculated it correctly. If not, those figures are still pretty close, I think.)

For multiple successful attempts, just multiply the probabilities together (simplification, since it assumes a full deck each attempt).
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Pablo Klinkisch
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zhredder wrote:
1 draw: 20% (10/50)
2 draws: 36.3% (20% + (1-20%)*10/49)
3 draws: 49.6% (36.3% + (1-36.3%)*10/48)
4 draws: 60.3% (49.6% + (1-49.6%)*10/47)

(That's assuming I calculated it correctly. If not, those figures are still pretty close, I think.)


They are correct, although I would have written them differently
Here the chances for _at least_ 1 infiltrate card with X tries (left column) and Y Infiltrate cards still in the deck (first row)

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
1 20,00% 18,37% 16,67% 14,89% 13,04% 11,11% 9,09% 6,98%
2 36,33% 33,67% 30,85% 27,84% 24,64% 21,21% 17,55% 13,62%
3 49,59% 46,37% 42,88% 39,07% 34,91% 30,37% 25,40% 19,94%
4 60,32% 56,87% 53,03% 48,76% 44,00% 38,66% 32,68% 25,95%
5 68,94% 65,49% 61,57% 57,10% 52,00% 46,14% 39,41% 31,64%
6 75,85% 72,55% 68,72% 64,25% 59,02% 52,87% 45,62% 37,04%
7 81,33% 78,30% 74,68% 70,36% 65,17% 58,92% 51,35% 42,14%
8 85,68% 82,95% 79,62% 75,54% 70,53% 64,32% 56,61% 46,97%
9 89,09% 86,69% 83,70% 79,93% 75,18% 69,14% 61,43% 51,51%
10 91,75% 89,69% 87,04% 83,63% 79,21% 73,43% 65,84% 55,79%


 
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Pablo Klinkisch
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great, the identation disappeared...
Solved. Thanks Pelle!!
 
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Pelle Nilsson
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Try to mark it as code. [ c ] [ / c ] (minus spaces).
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Mark L
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Sancherib wrote:
They are correct, although I would have written them differently

Yeah, my technique was admittedly a rather naive, brute-force method. I'm sure there's a more elegant way to calculate it. Using the formula for "combinations" comes to mind, but I couldn't remember how.
 
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Pablo Klinkisch
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zhredder wrote:
Sancherib wrote:
They are correct, although I would have written them differently

Yeah, my technique was admittedly a rather naive, brute-force method. I'm sure there's a more elegant way to calculate it. Using the formula for "combinations" comes to mind, but I couldn't remember how.

Hypergeometric distribution, the one that tells you _not_ to play lottery
 
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