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Twilight Struggle» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Liklihood of winning after initial coup series rss

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Timothy Bina
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Based on a sample of 285 games, here is my record of winning based on success of the initial coup series against Iran:

Went on to win 48% of the games I'd played after losing the initial coup series.
Won 56% of the games after winning the initial coup series.
Won 44% of the games where Iran had no influence at the end of round 1.
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Russ Hewson
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Have you got the numbers to split your last data point between the US and the USSR (% of games won as the US after Iran had no influence at the end of turn 1 and vice versa)? The first two unsurprisingly confirm that having influence in Iran at the end of the first turn is a predictor for doing well I just think it's likely that it's more important for the US than the USSR.
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Timothy Bina
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Here's the breakdown by side:
USSR/Lost Initial Coup Series: 26/47 = 55% win rate
USSR/No IP after Initial Coup Series: 13/30 = 43%
USSR/Won Initial Coup Series: 47/70 = 67%

USA/Lost Initial Coup Series: 24/57 = 42%
USA/No IP after Initial Coup Series: 9/11 = 45%
USA/Won Initial Coup Series: 28/62 = 45%

The surprising stat here is what happens when the initial coup series leaves Iran empty. Since the US is at par when the initial coup series leaves Iran empty and the USSR stat is low, I'm concluding that my reaction to this situation when I'm playing USSR is poor.
 
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Russ Hewson
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Stupid question I'm sure, but if the USSR have a 67% chance of winning if they win the inital coup series then surely the USA have a 33% chance (notwithstanding any draws)? I see the number of games are different too...

EDIT - Ahh I see you are only counting the side you were playing.
 
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