Wade Nelson
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When I look at the Republican candidates it looks to me like the party has really stagnated. None of them are interesting, at least not any more so than they were four or eight years ago.

This is really the best they have to offer? None of them really have any sincere redeeming qualities. Newt Gingrich will dig his own grave; the fact that anyone takes him seriously at all is a mystery to me.

I'm not going to make any excuses for Obama either, but at least he appears to have some respect for the average citizen.
 
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William Boykin
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This is a perfect storm for an ugly negative campaign.

With both candidates having such high negatives, this doesn't mean that Gingrich is hosed. Rather, it means that the job that the GOP has in front of them is to demonstrate that while Gingrich might be a Grinch, Obama is evil incarnate.

The sad truth of the matter is that the GOP is much, much better at this type of game. While I think that Obama has an edge, the fact that he hasn't been able to shift the nature of this campaign from being a positive one to one that WILL be a horribly negative one means that I think that Gingrich has a better shot than some people might think.

Darilian
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William Boykin
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LeeDambis wrote:
How negative campaigning could hit Obama:

"He kept us in Afghanistan and left Guantanamo Bay Open." No good. The Republicans stand for this type of foreign policy.

"Obamacare is mandatory, expensive, and will bankrupt us." Weak at best. Hasn't even been implemented yet. Could be cost neutral. Won't suppress the base.

"A typical tax-and-spend liberal." Gets the usual traction with conservatives and budget hawks who weren't voting Democrat anyway. Won't suppress the base.

"Wants to raise taxes in order to fix his budget deficit." See above.

"Budget deficits skyrocketed on his watch." See above, but gets a little more traction as long as Republicans don't shut down government and show everyone just how much they depend on it.

"A do-nothing president." Corollary: a do-nothing Republican Congress full of Tea Partiers.

"Authorized the killing of American citizens without due process." Dings the base. Corollary: tough on terror; killed bin Laden, too. Republicans also stand for this type of foreign policy without an equivalent level of transparency (and that other guy let bin Laden get away).

"Wants to gut defense spending in order to pay for welfare programs." Probably energizes the base. Could be effective with moderates. Automatic cuts would not happen until after the election, so the Republicans would have to stage-manage this issue in order to give it traction.

"Soft on illegal immigration." Doesn't work. Deportations haven't dropped. The Republicans also want to get what few Latino votes they can.

Any others?



I'm talking "Willie Horton" ugly. I'm talking "Daisy" ugly. You're talking issues, I'm talking about in your face, How can you trust this guy when he's having panic attacks in the White House incompetent???- a very real rumor that is going around.

I'm talking about bare knuckles politics in its more raw form, and I don't think that Pres. Obama is really up for that. This will make the campaign against Hilary seem like a total cakewalk.

Darilian
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CHAPEL
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Just admit it. We don't have a single electable candidate in 2012. The all suck. And they're all Republicans.

I would love to have at least one Democrat on the 2012 Ballot next year.
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Sean Chick (Formerly Paul O'Sullivan)
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Fag an bealac! Riam nar druid ar sbarin lann! Cuimhnigidh ar Luimnech agus feall na Sassonach! Erin go Bragh! Remember Limerick! Remember Ireland and Fontenoy!
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Well, I'm afraid it'll have to wait. Whatever it was, I'm sure it was better than my plan to get out of this by pretending to be mad. I mean, who would have noticed another madman round here?
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LeeDambis wrote:
Umm. Except you've got to have a Willie Horton. What do the Republicans have? Birtherism? Been there, done that. Bill Ayers? That's soooo 2008. He's incompetent? The same people have been saying that since January, 2009. No, at best we have a Carteresque national malaise. What we don't have is a fresh face like Ronald Reagan - just a bunch of retreads who were making the same complaints in 2008 when Obama won the presidency.


Reagan was not a fresh face. He had been a high profile governor of California, a favorite among conservative's after Goldwater fell from prominence, and had challenged Ford in 1976. Even Nixon was afraid of him in 1968.

Gingrich has been underrated. I wrote him off after his first stumbles, but when he rose in the polls two months ago I took notice and didn't laugh. No one man is more responsible for the GOP of today than Gingrich. He knows how to press the right buttons and he fights dirty. The election will be ugly regardless, but with Gingrich in the seat it may rival 1800, 1860, and 1896.

First Newt has got to win the nomination. I hope he does. Not because he is more "beatable" but because a "moderate" Republican like Romney could lose and give the conservative's a free pass. If Obama is going to win, let him defeat someone like Gingrich, a staunch conservative who will pull out the kitchen sink in 2012.

I wish I could agree with you Lee, but I think the Republicans can make a good case against Obama and pull it off, regardless of the candidate. The safe money is on Obama, but in 2008 I put a $100 bet on him. Now I wouldn't put anymore than $20.
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William Boykin
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Except that they DIDN'T have a Willie Horton. Horton was released under an amnesty program started by Dukakis' (Republican!) predeccessor. In addition, Horton wasn't suppossed to be eligible for a furlough, and this was done without Dukakis' knowledge or permission. Moreover, the program was generally seen- prior to 1988- as successful in reducing recidivism.

About the only thing you can nail Dukakis on was the fact that he vetoed a bill that would have prevented furloughs for 1st Degree murderers. The problem is that Horton, who wasn't eligible for parole, was somehow able to get on the furlough program anyway, so even if that law had been passed, that wouldn't had stopped the mistake that allowed Horton to be released.

But the facts of the case are truly beside the point, because the ad took on a life of its own, as the Republican's used this to viciously portray Dukakis and Democrats in general as 'Soft on Crime' and to show what happens when you propose anything but a policy of locking up the guilty and throwing away the key.

It had nothing to do with the actual case, but with how that case could be portrayed to focus groups to make the 'Revolving Door' ad that was a nuclear attack against the Dukakis campaign.

Darilian
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M Hellyer
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What makes this an issue for BGG.com? Where's the gaming content?
 
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William Boykin
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PlayMe1 wrote:
What makes this an issue for BGG.com? Where's the gaming content?


You're new here, aren't you?

Darilian
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The Steak Fairy
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PlayMe1 wrote:
What makes this an issue for BGG.com? Where's the gaming content?


How did you even find it? We thought this forum was pretty well hidden from the sight of gamers who can't see the gaming content implicit in all the topics contained here.
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MGK
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bjlillo wrote:
PlayMe1 wrote:
What makes this an issue for BGG.com? Where's the gaming content?


We're batting around ideas for Campaign Manager 2012. It's still an early prototype though.


EXCUSE ME I THOUGHT THIS THREAD WAS ABOUT A FAN EXPANSION FOR TICKET TO RIDE
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William Boykin
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mightygodking wrote:
bjlillo wrote:
PlayMe1 wrote:
What makes this an issue for BGG.com? Where's the gaming content?


We're batting around ideas for Campaign Manager 2012. It's still an early prototype though.


EXCUSE ME I THOUGHT THIS THREAD WAS ABOUT A FAN EXPANSION FOR TICKET TO RIDE


Didn't Gingrich have some idea of subsidizing Mag-Lev trains or something?

Ticket to Ride, the Gingrich Edition!!!



Darilian
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jbrier
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LeeDambis wrote:
This is the BGG sewer, where anything goes.


...and we're the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?
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Chad Ellis
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Koldfoot wrote:
Obama and Newt's unfavorable rating is basically the same. (48% to 49%) Given that the country is divided roughly equally between republicans and democrats, one would expect this.


No, you wouldn't. "Unfavorable" doesn't just mean "I'd vote against him in favor of someone from my party/political views". If we should really expect Obama to have unfavorables of 48% because the country is split then we would have expected it to be about that when he took office. Instead his unfavorables were around 18%.

Similarly, Newt's problem isn't that he's disliked by the left side of the spectrum but that his unfavorable ratings are growing -- with a 6% increase in the past month.

I agree with you that Newt's standing with Republicans will rise if he wins the nomination, but in order to win the Presidency he needs to gain independent votes and right now he's got a 48-33 unfavorable margin. If he convinces all his undecideds he'll be in good shape, but that's a tough challenge.
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Derek Green
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To weigh in on the issue as a totality, I believe that Obama must likely will be reelected if Newt is the Republican nominee. The Republicans will do better than in 2008; Virginia and Indiana most likely won't swing again, just to look at two very safe bets. I believe that Darilian is correct that the Republicans will try to find a Willie Horton issue but Lee is right that it will be a difficult search. However, as you all know, that is what the Republican party of today does best, so I wouldn't put it past them. Obama is good at seeming like a nice guy and he has shown recently that he can appear to be a man for brief periods of time if he puts his mind to it, so he may be able to take the haymakers that Newt is going to bring to the party.

The main thing that could screw Obama is that his weakness on civil rights and the fourth amendment could become common knowledge and demobilize the liberal base. Of course, the fact that the predominantly Republican businessmen in the country control hiring at most companies also means that they can set the economic conditions of 2012. We'll have to wait a little longer to know for sure how the landscape will look.

My real fear about the 2012 elections is about how the congressional results will set Obama up for an anemic and worthless second term. If that happens, then we can be guaranteed a Republican president in 2016 who will come into a weak country with a radical Libertarian agenda or a militaristic set of objectives. This seems to me more and more likely as the Democrats will almost certainly not hold the Senate and definitely will not be meaningfully stronger there. The House may go to the Democrats, but they held it in 2009-2010 and it was able to accomplish balls because the Republicans had 41 votes in the Senate.
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