Carl Garber
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Alrighty! Time for another fun prediction thread! My last one was whether or on The Castles of Burgundy would be Feld's highest ranked and it has easily accomplished that goal (and then some!). Now the next question is: How high will it go? and Where will it rank among 2011 releases?

This is a tough question to answer. Some factors to consider:

1) It is now in the BGG top 100 so it will have increased exposure.
2) It now has a North American release so its availability will increase.
3) It now has a North American release so its avg. ratings will suffer (For some reason Americans rate games lower than most of the rest of the world, why is that?).

Considering the above I think The Castles of Burgundy still has a shot at making the top 50. Looking at Navegador as a comparison (avg. rating 7.79, 2270 ratings, ranked 52), Castles of Burgundy can reach this goal if it's avg rating decreases by only .10 over its next 1000 ratings. Looking at The Castles of Burgundy's high maintained average so far, this decrease of .10 seems like a good estimate , and it should easily get another 1000 ratings as well considering it's wider release.

As for where it will rank among 2011 releases I think top 5 is a liklihood. Right now I think A Few Acres of Snow, Eclipse, and possibly Trajan and Mage Knight have a chance to finish above it (with LOTR in the mix as well I suppose).

So my final predictions:

The Castles of Burgundy will settle around a rank of 50 and will be the 4th or 5th highest release of 2011.

That's my opinion, what's yours?

EDIT: wow! Somehow forgot about Ora et Labora which is a lock for top 50. My predictions still stand though.
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Brandon M
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CarlG wrote:
Alrighty! Time for another fun prediction thread! My last one was whether or on The Castles of Burgundy would be Feld's highest ranked and it has easily accomplished that goal (and then some!). Now the next question is: How high will it go? and Where will it rank among 2011 releases?


Wow, I didn't realize this was Feld's highest ranked game. I feel like it was just recently in the 200s. Apparently it passed In the Year of the Dragon though, and it definitely deserves to be his highest ranked game.

However, Notre Dame has been ranked higher in the past (in the 50s at least), so I think Die Burgen von Burgund has some ground to make up before it can be declared the greatest Feld up to this point. This should make the top 50 though, now that it is more readily available in the US. In the dice-as-workers genre (Kingsburg, Alien Frontiers, Troyes, Die Burgen von Burgund), this is easily the best game.
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BibKamp318
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mugs wrote:
However, Notre Dame has been ranked higher in the past (in the 50s at least), so I think Die Burgen von Burgund has some ground to make up before it can be declared the greatest Feld up to this point.

Also In the Year of the Dragon spent some time in the top 50 and reached 48th position I think. So still a way to go for Die Burgen von Burgund, but with a US release the probability of moving up is increasing
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BibKamp318
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CarlG wrote:
For some reason Americans rate games lower than most of the rest of the world, why is that?

We once measured the satisfaction with a service we provided reasonably similarly consistently across the globe, and the marks we got where something like:
- US: 8.5
- EMEA: 7.5
- AsPac: 6.7

For the same service ...

Different cultures have a different framework around "what is a good result"
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Pasvik -
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Somewhere around 30!
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Pasvik -
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Edit: Somewhere around 20!!!!!!!
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Carl Garber
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Wow! We all low-balled it apparently! It is now up to 16th and it's avg rating continues to go up! Currently at 8.01. Also it went up .030 in geek rating over this last month so it is still climbing! Is top 10 a possibility?
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Bryan Thunkd
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CarlG wrote:
Is top 10 a possibility?


I think so. Also, Feld has 4 games coming out this year, so I'm sure there will be new converts who will start looking at his other games and fall in love with this one.

I know this would bump out a couple of the games currently in the top ten for me.
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Carl Garber
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Up to 13th now and only .002 behind Caylus! It is also up to a 8.05 avg! I think now 9th is its ceiling, beating out Le Havre. Le Havre has an 8.05 avg a well and 11000 votes. I think at the rate CoB is growing it will eventually catch those numbers! Also, Mage Knight has started to fall which means it will be that much easier for CoB to get into the Top 10! It looks like it will also be the 2nd highest rated 2011 game!
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