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Subject: Is war coming with Iran? rss

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I found the following exchange interesting, in the Republican debate last night.

Is Bachmann right? She almost has me convinced (on this point, anyway):


PAUL: You know what I really fear about what's happening here? It's another Iraq coming. It is war propaganda going on. (Applause.) And — and we're arguing — to me the greatest danger is that we will have a president that will overreact, that we will soon bomb Iran.

BACHMANN: And with all due respect to Ron Paul, I think I have never heard a more dangerous answer for American security than the one that we just heard from Ron Paul. And I'll tell you the reason why. (Cheers, boos, applause.) And the reason — the reason — the reason why I would say that is because we know without a shadow of a doubt that Iran will take a nuclear weapon, they will use it to wipe our ally Israel off the face of the map, and they've stated they will use it against the United States of America.


http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2011/12/15/143812131...
 
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Does anyone know what is Obama's strategy, regarding Iran and its nuclear program?
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Boaty McBoatface
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No, this time there will be fewer allies, the US has a lot less money to spend (so it can't get a coalition of the billing this time). On top of this the Iranian millitary has not been crippled by a previous war. This is all just hot air, and Iran knows it.
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Dan Schaeffer
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bjlillo wrote:
Well, Iran's leaders have definitely stated on multiple occasions that they intend to wipe Israel off the map. I'm not sure she's right that they have said they will use nuclear weapons against the US.


I'm not 100% certain that the leadership of Iran has said they intend to wipe Israel off the map. As I understand it, the translation of what Ahmedinajad actually said is open for debate and interpretation, in part because "wipe [X] off the map" is not idiomatic in Farsi.

This is a brief but interesting analysis of the question.

I'm no fan of Iran, and in particular I believe its nuclear weapons programs aer a major threat and should be shut down. But I think if you're going to advocate military action to do so, you need to build your case on a more solid foundation than a questionable translation of a line in a speech from 2005.

(I also have not heard anything about threats to use nuclear weapons against the US. I suspect that Bachmann pulled that out of her ass, which is where she seems to get most of her "facts" about important policy issues.)
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She is wrong.

Iran is of course building nuclear weapons. However, not to attack Israel or the US. Why on earth should they attack anyway? What would they gain?

They need nuclear weapons for strategic reasons:
There are three countries with nuclear weapons surrounding them (Israel, Pakistan and India). Pakistan is very unstable. Israel has openly called for a preemptive nuclear strike against Iran. Another two neighbouring countries (Afghanistan and Iraq) are under US control. The USA already proved that they are willing to invade for oil. And Iran has one of the largest oil resources that are not controlled by the US.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said it too.

Oh, and Ahmadinejad didn't say that Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map.




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Ahmedinajad is as crazy as a bum full of Smarties. As soon as that nuke is built he'll be hammering that big red button like it's the World Finals of Daley Thompson's Decathalon.

Oh, hyperbole alert, btw.
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War is coming.

Whether it's Iran first or not remains to be seen.
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Fwing wrote:
War is coming.

Whether it's Iran first or not remains to be seen.

True. We've got a recession that we need to spend our way out of. Worked for The Milk Snatcher in the 80's...
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Can we assume the current Iranian leadership will act rationally?
 
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bjlillo wrote:
Golux13 wrote:
I'm not 100% certain that the leadership of Iran has said they intend to wipe Israel off the map. As I understand it, the translation of what Ahmedinajad actually said is open for debate and interpretation, in part because "wipe [X] off the map" is not idiomatic in Farsi.


I'm sure when he called Israel a cancer that needed to be cut out of the body and a germ that needed to be wiped away, he didn't really mean wipe them off the map either, right? That guy is all in on the "Jews ruling the world" conspiracy.


Do you mean this? "Like a cancer cell that spreads through the body, this regime infects any region. It must be removed from the body."

I'm not suggesting Ahmedinajad is a good guy, or that I'm a fan of Iran's current leadership. I realize he's a threat to Israel (among others) and a destabilizing influence in the region. All the same, I think there's an incentive and a tendency to seize on the most damning interpretation and translation and try to use that to justify action, so I take it with a grain of salt.
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Boaty McBoatface
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tesuji wrote:
Can we assume the current Iranian leadership will act rationally?


Have they acted irrationaly so far?
 
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I think Ahmedinejad really loathes Israel. I also think that Ahmedinejad's feeling's for Israel are largely irrelevant because the Presidency of Iran is largely ceremonial, and even though he wants more power, the council of mullahs is really very interested in making sure that he doesn't get more power - and the mullahs are reportedly quite aware that war with Israel is a bad, bad idea.

You'll see a civil war in Iran before you see it go to war with Israel.
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bjlillo wrote:
Golux13 wrote:
Do you mean this? "Like a cancer cell that spreads through the body, this regime infects any region. It must be removed from the body."


That's one of the quotes, yes. That's pretty obviously a threat against Israel.

Quote:
I'm not suggesting Ahmedinajad is a good guy, or that I'm a fan of Iran's current leadership. I realize he's a threat to Israel (among others) and a destabilizing influence in the region. All the same, I think there's an incentive and a tendency to seize on the most damning interpretation and translation and try to use that to justify action, so I take it with a grain of salt.


The guy is a Holocaust denier and thinks that Jews run the world. Why do you think he deserves the benefit of the doubt?


I don't think he deserves the benefit of the doubt. I just don't think a questionably translated statement or series of statements is sufficient to justify war.

Note also: As much as I despise Holocaust deniers, and as ludicrous as I find those who believe the Jews run the world (because if they do, where's my fucking dividend check?), I don't believe either of those is justification for military action either. There are plenty of similarly-minded people right here in the USofA, and I don't think they should be subject to violence on the basis of their profoundly stupid comments.
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mightygodking wrote:
I also think that Ahmedinejad's feeling's for Israel are largely irrelevant because the Presidency of Iran is largely ceremonial


I think it's always important to stress this incredibly important point when discussing Iran.

Ahmedinejad is just a large side-show/distraction.
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Somebody is already at war with Iran. You don't think all the recent explosions are accidents, do you?
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SabreRedleg wrote:
Somebody is already at war with Iran. You don't think all the recent explosions are accidents, do you?


That would be the CIA/Mossad.
 
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Dolphinandrew wrote:
mightygodking wrote:
I also think that Ahmedinejad's feeling's for Israel are largely irrelevant because the Presidency of Iran is largely ceremonial


I think it's always important to stress this incredibly important point when discussing Iran.

Ahmedinejad is just a large side-show/distraction.


Its been said many, many times. It just convenient for people like Bachmann to forget.
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Fwing wrote:
War is coming.

Whether it's Iran first or not remains to be seen.




War Is Coming - Six Feet Under
Quote:
Prepare yourself for the worst it's coming soon
I believe in those foretold prophecies of doom
They say the end is close, it's coming fast
Not every single one of us is gonna last
So, stand and fight or kill yourself right now
It'll be one less motherfucker to kill
Skin shot, burned, stabbed, scorched and torn
This pain is real - you can't ignore...

War is coming

Arm yourself with the right to kill at will
Shoot to kill it's them or you
Time to choose, time to choose or die
Blood's pouring from the hole in your side
Take the pain - it'll focus and strengthen you
Take the pain - or your life's fuckin' through
Face the pain - let it become part of you
Take the pain

War is coming

Prepare yourself for the worst it's coming soon
I believe in those foretold prophecies of doom
They say the end is close, it's coming fast
Not every single one of us is gonna last
So, stand and fight or kill yourself right now
It'll be one less motherfucker to kill
Skin shot, burned, stabbed, scorched and torn
This pain is real - you can't ignore...

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Hegel wrote:
She is wrong.

Iran is of course building nuclear weapons. However, not to attack Israel or the US. Why on earth should they attack anyway? What would they gain?

They need nuclear weapons for strategic reasons:
There are three countries with nuclear weapons surrounding them (Israel, Pakistan and India). Pakistan is very unstable. Israel has openly called for a preemptive nuclear strike against Iran. Another two neighbouring countries (Afghanistan and Iraq) are under US control. The USA already proved that they are willing to invade for oil. And Iran has one of the largest oil resources that are not controlled by the US.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said it too.

Oh, and Ahmadinejad didn't say that Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map.




Wow, I'm glad we're only paying $1/gallon now after all of that oil we looted in the middle east. shake

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Bojan Ramadanovic
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Funny thing is... they are going to get the bomb and you can't do shit about it.
The war on the scale you would need to prevent them would be ways ahead of Vietnam and Iraq. With massive ground force commitment, fighting for years in large mountainous country against motivated and relatively well trained opposition.
Theoretically you would win of course but recent experiences against relatively trivial uprising in mesopotamia have shown that your public is not willing to support even a fraction of cost needed for this sort of endeavour.
Prior to Iraq/Afganistan you had a good bluffing hand because none knew just how much of you overwhelming force you are actually able to deploy. Now that cat is out of the bag and any threat of military action by USA beyond aerial and shore bombardment can justly be laughed out of the parliament for at least a generation.
USA knows it, Iran knows it and even Israel knows it (which is why *their* threat to intervene is nothing but empty bluster either - given that they do not have force necessary and would be relying on your guys to come pick the chestnuts out of the fire for them).

I greatly dislike idea of the Islamic Republic having a bomb (even if I do think on balance of probability that they will not use it first - my money for that one is on Pakistan with N. Korea second likeliest candidate) but at this stage of the game all you can do is look at the best ways of living with it (which, to their credit, is what I think your diplomats are doing).

Remember, only thing worse then impotence is blustering impotence.
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tesuji wrote:
"...we know without a shadow of a doubt that Iran will take a nuclear weapon, they will use it to wipe our ally Israel off the face of the map..."

Bachmann is clueless about nukes. The fission weapon Iran can build would "only" have a blast radius of 3 or 4 km. A fusion weapon, which Iran probably cannot build but perhaps Israel has, has a radius circa 10-20 km. Israel is over 20,000 square km.

Iran doesn't have the precision guidance and delivery systems needed to target Israel well. Israel has those systems. They also have anti-missile defense systems.

Israel is not known for restraint once it's been attacked. Israel is not known for losing. Israel is known for excellent intelligence and precision military operations.

Iran's leadership can say anything they want, but if they have two brain cells to rub together, they know they will die if they nuke Israel.
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bramadan wrote:
Funny thing is... they are going to get the bomb and you can't do shit about it.
The war on the scale you would need to prevent them would be ways ahead of Vietnam and Iraq. With massive ground force commitment, fighting for years in large mountainous country against motivated and relatively well trained opposition.
Theoretically you would win of course but recent experiences against relatively trivial uprising in mesopotamia have shown that your public is not willing to support even a fraction of cost needed for this sort of endeavour.
Prior to Iraq/Afganistan you had a good bluffing hand because none knew just how much of you overwhelming force you are actually able to deploy. Now that cat is out of the bag and any threat of military action by USA beyond aerial and shore bombardment can justly be laughed out of the parliament for at least a generation.
USA knows it, Iran knows it and even Israel knows it (which is why *their* threat to intervene is nothing but empty bluster either - given that they do not have force necessary and would be relying on your guys to come pick the chestnuts out of the fire for them).

I greatly dislike idea of the Islamic Republic having a bomb (even if I do think on balance of probability that they will not use it first - my money for that one is on Pakistan with N. Korea second likeliest candidate) but at this stage of the game all you can do is look at the best ways of living with it (which, to their credit, is what I think your diplomats are doing).

Remember, only thing worse then impotence is blustering impotence.


The thing is, to 'win' against Iran, all you have to do is take the guns out of their hands. We're not going to occupy/invade them. We just want to blow-up their tanks/ships/missiles/planes. This, we're fucking awesome at, and wouldn't take us much to do and maintain.
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bippi wrote:
The thing is, to 'win' against Iran, all you have to do is take the guns out of their hands. We're not going to occupy/invade them. We just want to blow-up their tanks/ships/missiles/planes. This, we're fucking awesome at, and wouldn't take us much to do and maintain.


I'd bet on the Iranians to outlast us if we tried.
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bippi wrote:
bramadan wrote:
Funny thing is... they are going to get the bomb and you can't do shit about it.
The war on the scale you would need to prevent them would be ways ahead of Vietnam and Iraq. With massive ground force commitment, fighting for years in large mountainous country against motivated and relatively well trained opposition.
Theoretically you would win of course but recent experiences against relatively trivial uprising in mesopotamia have shown that your public is not willing to support even a fraction of cost needed for this sort of endeavour.
Prior to Iraq/Afganistan you had a good bluffing hand because none knew just how much of you overwhelming force you are actually able to deploy. Now that cat is out of the bag and any threat of military action by USA beyond aerial and shore bombardment can justly be laughed out of the parliament for at least a generation.
USA knows it, Iran knows it and even Israel knows it (which is why *their* threat to intervene is nothing but empty bluster either - given that they do not have force necessary and would be relying on your guys to come pick the chestnuts out of the fire for them).

I greatly dislike idea of the Islamic Republic having a bomb (even if I do think on balance of probability that they will not use it first - my money for that one is on Pakistan with N. Korea second likeliest candidate) but at this stage of the game all you can do is look at the best ways of living with it (which, to their credit, is what I think your diplomats are doing).

Remember, only thing worse then impotence is blustering impotence.


The thing is, to 'win' against Iran, all you have to do is take the guns out of their hands. We're not going to occupy/invade them. We just want to blow-up their tanks/ships/missiles/planes. This, we're fucking awesome at, and wouldn't take us much to do and maintain.


Unless you count the more-or-less permanent closure of the Straight of Hormuz as "not much".
Putting weaponry under ground is not a novel invention and Iranians have been building deep bunkers against just such an eventuality as US airborne attack for at least 30 years now, including a significant part of their nuclear program.

Maintaining semi-permanent bombing campaign while dealing with economic fallout from effective cessation of commercial shipping in Persian Gulf would not be a stable equilibrium for USA at any time - much less in your current economic and fiscal condition.
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bramadan wrote:

Maintaining semi-permanent bombing campaign while dealing with economic fallout from effective cessation of commercial shipping in Persian Gulf would not be a stable equilibrium for USA at any time - much less in your current economic and fiscal condition.


You got me there. Will that stop us?
 
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