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Subject: Let's talk probabilities ! rss

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K K
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Ok, so what's the deal here?

Could some tech savvy BGGeek make a probability tool that would count the chance to get 1, 2, 3 and so on stars with blue, red, green dice and combinations of them?

I'd like to know, if 1 red and 1 blue are better than 3 blue for example.


Edit:

Ha ha! Got one that sort of works. From what I can see, 2 blue are better than 1 red, so to answer my own question - 3 blue are better than 1 red and 1 blue. Interesting. Palladin is not so medicore fighter as I can see.
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Chris Topher
United States
Dist of Columbia
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I have not done a full analysis (would take a few hours), but this might help:

The expected value of the dice rolls are as follows:
Blue: 4/6
Red: 7/6
Green: 11/6
White: 6/6

Any combinations will have an expected value equivalent to the sum of the individual dice's expected values.

So:
BB = 8/6
BR = (4 + 7)/6 = 11/6
BBR = 15/6
RR = 14/6

Note that the exact distributions are different for every combination - I started working on this but realized it was.... a lot of work.

"Expected Values" are basically means / averages

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Xylon Lionheart
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I remember doing the work myself at one point. Yes, two blue can get a potentially HIGHER number than a single red if you roll both two-star sides, but overall you are more likely to get more stars with a red die than with two blue.

Let's look at the red die on its own.

Potion
Blank
One
One
Two
Three

So you have a 2/3 chance of getting a star, 1/3 chance of getting two or more, and 1/6 chance of getting three.

Now, let's look at the blue die.

Heart Heart
Blank Blank
Blank Blank
One One
One One
Two Two

Since there are two dice, there are 36 different outcomes.

There are 9 combinations were you'll get 0.
There are 12 combinations where you'll get a 1
There are 10 combinations where you'll get a 2.
There are 4 combinations that net you a 3.
There is 1 combination were you'll get a 4.

So the odds are 1/4 miss, 1/3 one, 5/18 two, 1/9 three, 1/36 four for blues, and 1/3 miss, 1/3 one, 1/6 two, 1/6 three for one red.

Hm... I guess the two are actually more comparable than I remembered, although I did do the math in my head before. For two blue dice, you are less likely to mess up, but for a red die, you have a much, much better chance of hitting a three or above. Maybe that's why I considered a red die slightly superior.
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K K
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The tool that I used is "Dice probability viewer" by SamuelF for The Lost and the Damned (Google).

It seems that BBB averages 2 stars per roll, BR 1,66 stars, RR 2,33 stars. And BBR - 2,5 stars.

That also means, Palladin has weaker armor than Mages... and Candy... and Cola
 
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