Ok, so what's the deal here?
Could some tech savvy BGGeek make a probability tool that would count the chance to get 1, 2, 3 and so on stars with blue, red, green dice and combinations of them?
I'd like to know, if 1 red and 1 blue are better than 3 blue for example.
Ha ha! Got one that sort of works. From what I can see, 2 blue are better than 1 red, so to answer my own question - 3 blue are better than 1 red and 1 blue. Interesting. Palladin is not so medicore fighter as I can see.
- Last edited Sun Jan 8, 2012 7:36 pm (Total Number of Edits: 1)
- Posted Sun Jan 8, 2012 6:51 pm
Dist of Columbia
I have not done a full analysis (would take a few hours), but this might help:
The expected value of the dice rolls are as follows:
Any combinations will have an expected value equivalent to the sum of the individual dice's expected values.
BB = 8/6
BR = (4 + 7)/6 = 11/6
BBR = 15/6
RR = 14/6
Note that the exact distributions are different for every combination - I started working on this but realized it was.... a lot of work.
"Expected Values" are basically means / averages
I remember doing the work myself at one point. Yes, two blue can get a potentially HIGHER number than a single red if you roll both two-star sides, but overall you are more likely to get more stars with a red die than with two blue.
Let's look at the red die on its own.
So you have a 2/3 chance of getting a star, 1/3 chance of getting two or more, and 1/6 chance of getting three.
Now, let's look at the blue die.
Since there are two dice, there are 36 different outcomes.
There are 9 combinations were you'll get 0.
There are 12 combinations where you'll get a 1
There are 10 combinations where you'll get a 2.
There are 4 combinations that net you a 3.
There is 1 combination were you'll get a 4.
So the odds are 1/4 miss, 1/3 one, 5/18 two, 1/9 three, 1/36 four for blues, and 1/3 miss, 1/3 one, 1/6 two, 1/6 three for one red.
Hm... I guess the two are actually more comparable than I remembered, although I did do the math in my head before. For two blue dice, you are less likely to mess up, but for a red die, you have a much, much better chance of hitting a three or above. Maybe that's why I considered a red die slightly superior.
- Last edited Mon Jan 9, 2012 3:50 am (Total Number of Edits: 2)
- Posted Mon Jan 9, 2012 3:34 am
The tool that I used is "Dice probability viewer" by SamuelF for The Lost and the Damned (Google).
It seems that BBB averages 2 stars per roll, BR 1,66 stars, RR 2,33 stars. And BBR - 2,5 stars.
That also means, Palladin has weaker armor than Mages... and Candy... and Cola
- Last edited Mon Jan 9, 2012 5:58 am (Total Number of Edits: 1)
- Posted Mon Jan 9, 2012 4:37 am