Recommend
5 
 Thumb up
 Hide
7 Posts

Whistling Death» Forums » Sessions

Subject: A different lesson learnt? rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Morten Lund
Denmark
Århus
Denmark
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Yes, Beware the Geek bringing gifts!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Warning! Conclusions and execution of gameplay in original post is flawed - a correction will follow!

Whistling Death Scenario 1: Fighter Comparison Test, Fall 1942

I am finally getting to actually *play* the Fighting wings series, and decided to play the solitaire Flight Training Scenarios, to make sure I had the procedures down right. (possibly more on these in separate AARs, later) On a whim, just to make things a bit more interesting (and get the gun rules in play too) I decided to up the ante a bit: not only would the P-40E be chasing the Zero, to stay behind it as long as possible, the Warhawk would also be shooting at the zero, trying to down it (not quite in the spirit of the test perhaps). This is the After Action Report:

Setup:
The planes start co-speed and angles, both at 4,5 or 250 mph, in the VL band at 5000 ft, with the Warhawk two hexes behind the Zero. Will the nimble Zero outturn the heavier Warhawk before the american plane's heavier broadside can be brought to bear?
 


Turn 1:
The Zero is programmed to turn as hard as possible, though not using ET turns (which would have brought the Zero out of trouble immediately, by insta-turning inside the Warhawk's available arc). This works out to be a 30 deg turn in every new hex entered, netting a total deceleration of 12 for 4 turns (4x3 points). the Sakae 12 engine delivers 8 points of access in Emergency Power, giving a net decel of 4, not enough for a loss of 0,5 FP, so speed will be unchanged next turn.

The Warhawk can cut the same arc as the zero, but at a far greater cost in decel, or turn drag. Where each BT turn costs the Zero 3, the Warhawk will bleed 5 points, and even worse: the Allison engine will only deliver 7 points of acceleration in Emergency Power. Gentlemen: If the Warhawk yanks back on the stick, he will bleed speed like a stuck pig. So if we want to keep up with the Zero, be as gentle as possible, while remaining in shot parameters.

The plan is as follows: Since we will be shooting today, try to get as close to the Zero in distance, but don't try to fly his arc, because it will cost you far more than him! So in order to to this, I flew the Warhawk in a slight lag pursuit, not turning in the second hex entered, but waiting until the third. This kept turn decel down to a manageable 10, for a net decel of 3 - again not enough for a loss of FP for turn 2 - AND just barely kept the Zero inside the firing arc, at range 2.
 


Shot #1:
At range 2, the Warhawk has a combined firepower of 27. the Zero has a defense factor of 5, which is doubled to 10 due to the angle off or deflection from the Warhawk's nose to the Zero's nose, giving combat odds of 27:10 or 2,7:1 which is rounded in favour of the defender to 2:1. The dieroll was a gratifying 14 on a D100, with a +10 modifier for using BT turns. Consulting the Combat results table, this gives 4 hits, and 1 critical hit, as the Warhawks row of 6 .50 MGs deliver a critical for each full 3 hits. The critical hit was to the engine, resulting in a loss of power. The Sakae engine now only delivers 5 point of accel - this could prove decisive!

Turn 2:
Both planes had a carry-over of 0,5 FP from turn 1, which would be added to the actual speed, meaning that both planes would move 5 hexes. Again the Zero was programmed to "Move 1, turn 30 degrees right", making it end up in hex 2215. but this time the accel/decel balance looks a lot worse: Turn 1 left the Zero with 4 decel carried over, plus the 12 it incurred this turn from turning, for a total of 16 decel. With the damaged engine delivering only 5 points, this meant a net decel of 11 points, which means the loss of a full FP of speed for turn 3

With the sighting of strikes to the Jap's engine, the Warhawk could afford to pull a little tighter without the Zero running away from him. Going whole hog, the Warhawk pulled 5 BT turns for a honking 25 points of decel, totaling 28 with the 3 carried over from turn 1. Factoring in the access from the Alison, this gives a net of 21 decel, for a loss of 2 FP, down to 2,5, getting pretty close to the stall speed of 2,0.

In the process, the Warhawk cut across the Zero's arc, and closed to range 1 for the shot, but bled airspeed like there's no tomorrow.
 


Shot #2:
At range 1, the Warhawk's firepower increases to a whopping 42, with the Zero's defense still at 10, this gives odds 4:1. The die roll was 71 (+10 for the BT turns), giving another 4 hits to the Zero, again with 1 critical hit, which turned out to be a fuel leak. The zero was badly hurt, streaming smoke and fuel, having sustained a total of 8 hits, taking it over its severely damaged threshold, but not yet at structural collapse. Being severely damaged meant that engine power is reduced by a further ¼, giving the Sakai a rather sad 4 power points, furthermore the Zero now must check to see if the wings can take the strain if using BT turns.

Turn 3:
at this point the Zero was still the fastest at speed 3,5, giving it a move of 3 for this turn, while the Warhawk was staggering along at 2,5, giving it a move of 2 for this turn. The Zero was hurting however, and if the Warhawk could keep scoring hits at the going rate, the Zero would loose out.

The zero kept to its (debatable) game plan of turning right as tightly as possible, wing spar be damned, and thus ended up in hex 2515. The roll to avoid overstressing from the BT turns (95-20, for 75 or less) was passed easily with a roll of 15 - it was creaking, but it was holding together for now! In the end it was close to an escape, but only close. The Warhawk made it to hex 2314, with the Zero barely inside the arc, opening the range to 2. Time to die!
 



Shot #3
At range 2 firepower remains at 27, while the defense rises to 15, due to the higher deflection, for 1,5-1 odds. The roll is good at 19 (no +10 modifier, as the Warhawk was too slow to use BT turns), for the 2 hits the Zero had remaining plus change, as well as one critical, which turned out to hit an empty part of the airframe. The Zero broke up, and spiraled into the sea. The pilot did not bail out.

Lessons Learned:
So: The alternative lesson is: Should the Warhawk be able to get itself into this position, it is possible to make the kill, even in the short time available before the Zero has turned inside the Warhawk's arc, and disappeared from view. It took some good die rolling, but it worked. Honking back on the stick in turn 2 would have been risky in a multiple A/C dogfight, but here it seemed worth it, as the danger would magically go away in turn 4 - and if using the rules for a tracking shot and long bursts, the Warhawk will have a better chance of ending the fight already in turn 2. Zeroes are flimsy, and burn easily - with another distribution of criticals, the fight might also have ended before turn 3

But don't forget JD's original lesson: DON'T start a turning fight with someone more nimble than you are! Get your shot in, and extend away!

Flying level is easy peasy - Next up: Transitions and the Gunnery Pattern!

[Edit: Typos, and a goof on shot #3]
9 
 Thumb up
1.25
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Greg Boeser
United States
Minnesota
flag msg tools
mbmb
But you are violating your own advice. You can achieve the same position with the P-40 on turn one by turning at the HT rate for less decel (2x4 vs 2x5) and a lower shot penalty (+10 for HT instead of +20 for BT). The deflection in turn 1 is 60 degrees for a defense factor modifier of x3, which results in the shot being on the 1.5 : 1 column. Then you get to count your harmony bonus of -15 for a range 2 attack.
Also in turn 2 you seem to forget about the Zero's carried half FP. It too should have moved 5 hexes total but that is not shown in your illustration.
4 
 Thumb up
1.00
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J.D. Webster
United States
Unspecified
Unspecified
flag msg tools
designer
mbmbmbmbmb
Hi, and thanks for your scenario AAR.

However, I’ve spotted several errors in it that invalidates your premise. I’ll summarize them below.

Turn 1 – The turn 1 shot is in error. The final deflection should be 60 degrees for a x3 defense making the odds only 27 to 15, or 1.5 to 1. The shot modifiers are also wrong. They should be +20 for BT turns and –15 for gun harmony at range 2. This gives a net +5 LH modifier. With a roll of 14 you get a Likelihood number of –45+5 for a final LH of –40. This still gives 4 hits and 1 critical hit.

Turn 2 – You only moved the Zero 4 hexes when its speed was 4.5 with a half FP carry, while correctly moving the P-40. Thus you artificially (accidentally) closed the range. The Zero should have ended in hex 2314 facing N, leaving you with another range 2 shot, exact same parameters as before. But a percentile roll of 71 gives you a +22+05LH for a final Likelihood number of +27 resulting in only 1 hit and no critical hits at 1.5 to 1 odds.

Turn 3 – You only flew the Zero in an “HT rate arc” facing once every FP, when it is still capable of BT rate at speed 3.5 which would allow 60 degrees of facing per FP. Thus it should have ended in hex 2316 facing south if it started in the 2314 facing N, or using your erroneous end hex as the start spot, it should have ended in hex 2416 facing SSE. In either case, the Zero ends outside the P-40’s horizontal gun arc and can’t be shot.

So in reality, you just have one pissed off Zero pilot who will be on your tail in 2-3 more turns and it will be the P-40 doing the dieing.

Note that even though the Zero can face twice per FP (60 deg. per FP), it pays BT decel for every 30 degrees of facing done in a move, so that would be 18 decel to turn and escape.

Would love to see you re-evaluate your premise based on the corrections to your errors.

Cheers,

J.D. Webster
5 
 Thumb up
1.00
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Morten Lund
Denmark
Århus
Denmark
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Yes, Beware the Geek bringing gifts!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
jdakapluto wrote:
Hi, and thanks for your scenario AAR.

However, I’ve spotted several errors in it that invalidates your premise. I’ll summarize them below.

...

Would love to see you re-evaluate your premise based on the corrections to your errors.

Cheers,

J.D. Webster


I obviously stand corrected - I will definitely take a good look at both your posts, and re-evaluate (hopefully before I get transferred to navigation school!) - thanks for taking my flawed arguments apart

My only semi-defense is that I played the scenario at 2 in the morning, after my daughter went to sleep for the 3rd time. Obviously sloppy work on my part, which will not do at all

I'll take my second checkride sometime this weekend

cheers,
Morten
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J.D. Webster
United States
Unspecified
Unspecified
flag msg tools
designer
mbmbmbmbmb
Thanks for putting the photos in the report. Looks good. Helped me spot the errors.

JD
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Morten Lund
Denmark
Århus
Denmark
flag msg tools
designer
badge
Yes, Beware the Geek bringing gifts!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
and thanks for taking the time to go through my AAR - I think I'll have this one taken down, once a new, correct one is ready
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
J.D. Webster
United States
Unspecified
Unspecified
flag msg tools
designer
mbmbmbmbmb
The more important thing to me is that you are able to learn the rules okay, not that you made a misinterpretation or mistake in your test run. Happy to help you in any capacity. Even game you one on one if you are so interested.

JD
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.