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Subject: Prognosticate? Heck, I Can Barely Spell It! rss

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Geoff Burkman
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Okay, just to vary things up a bit, I’d like to try another one of those “what’s going to happen?” reports. Presented below is the first Stage of a 4-player bout recently completed on boiteajeux.net. Your task, Constant Reader, should you be so inclined, is to complete the poll that follows and/or comment on the proceedings and post your prediction(s) of the final outcome of the game. I’ll give it, say, a week, and will then post the full session report thereafter, either separately or as an addendum here. I’m hoping this might be an enjoyable change of pace for everyone; I’ll be parceling out most of the geekgold I have left as a bribe reward to those whose prognostication skills deserve it. Have fun!

Round One/Sheep
Mike – Occ/Patron
Angel – Occ(-1f)/Conjurer
Weiss – RSf
Geoff – 2C(2)
Mike – 3W(3)
Angel – 1C(1)
Weiss – 2W(2)
Geoff – SP + House Goat

Current Status
Angel – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 2f, 1C, 1 Ock
Geoff – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 3f, 2C, 1 MnImp
Mike – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 2f, 3W, 1 Ock
Weiss – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 4f, 2W/1R/1S

Round Two/Fences
Geoff – 1R(2)
Mike – RSf
Angel – SP + Simple Fireplace (-1C)
Weiss – 3W(3)
Geoff – Occ/Charcoal Burner°
Mike – Occ(+1f)/Bread Seller~
Angel – TP(2f +1G)
Weiss – 2W(2)

Current Status
Angel – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 4f, 1G, 1 Ock, 1 MnImp
Geoff – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 3f, 2C/2R, 1 Ock, 1 MnImp
Mike – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 4f, 3W/1R/1S, 2 Ock
Weiss – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 4f, 7W/1R/1S

Round Three/Sow & Bake
Angel – 3W(3)
Weiss – 2C(4)
Geoff – Occ(-1f)/House Steward (4W)
Mike – RSf
Angel – 1W(3)
Weiss – SP + Outhouse (-1W/1C)
Geoff – Fish(3f)
Mike – 2W(2)

Current Status
Angel – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 4f, 6W, 1G, 1 Ock, 1 MnImp
Geoff – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 5f, 4W/2C/2R, 2 Ock, 1 MnImp
Mike – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 5f, 5W/2R/2S, 2 Ock
Weiss – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 4f, 6W/3C/1R/1S, 1 MnImp

Round Four/MIMI
Weiss – MIMI/Fp2 (-2C)°
Geoff – Occ(-1f)/Wood Deliveryman (7W> )
Mike – BR(1) + x (-5W/2R)
Angel – 1R(2)
Weiss – Sheep(4)burn3
Geoff – SP + Clay Pit
Mike – RSf
Angel – 1C(3)

Current Status
Angel – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 0f, 6W/3C/2R, 1G, 1 Ock, 1 MnImp
Geoff – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 2f, 5W/2C/2R, 3 Ock, 2 MnImp
Mike – 3Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 2f, 1R/3S, 2 Ock
Weiss – 2Wood Hut, 2 Peeps, 6f, 6W/1C/1R/1S, 1sh, 1 MjImp/1 MnImp

Poll
Who will win this game?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Angel
3.8% 1
Geoff
53.8% 14
Mike
26.9% 7
Weiss
15.4% 4
Voters 26
This poll is now closed.   26 answers
Poll created by MisterG
Closes: Sun Feb 5, 2012 6:00 am


Poll
What will the margin of victory be over second place?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
One point
15.4% 4
2-5 points
57.7% 15
6-10 points
15.4% 4
More than ten points
11.5% 3
Voters 26
This poll is now closed.   26 answers
Poll created by MisterG
Closes: Sun Feb 5, 2012 6:00 am


Poll
Who will come in last?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Angel
61.5% 16
Geoff
3.8% 1
Mike
11.5% 3
Weiss
23.1% 6
Voters 26
This poll is now closed.   26 answers
Poll created by MisterG
Closes: Sun Feb 5, 2012 6:00 am


Poll
What will the margin of defeat be between first and last?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
1-5 points
7.4% 2
6-10 points
3.7% 1
10-15 points
59.3% 16
more than 15 points
29.6% 8
Voters 27
This poll is now closed.   27 answers
Poll created by MisterG
Closes: Sun Feb 5, 2012 6:00 am


Please feel free to add any comments you may have about each player's relative position/strength in the game and how you might imagine they plan to proceed. I'll keep an eye on this thread to answer any questions that may arise, but will do my best to not post any spoilers, per se.

Happy clairvoyance and gaming to all!


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Gastel Etswane
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Angel's final stats are wrong I think. Doesn't she have 4f?
 
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Derakon Derakon
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I'm amused at the consensus on the voting so far. Granted there's only three voters...
 
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Hell I voted and I don't play the game!
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Jonathan C
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"He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep, to gain what he cannot lose."
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markgravitygood wrote:
Hell I voted and I don't play the game!


that is so awesome
 
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Geoff Burkman
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Gastel wrote:
Angel's final stats are wrong I think. Doesn't she have 4f?


One word: harvest.*


*Hmmm, actually that was three, wasn't it?whistle
 
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Benjamin Kerenza
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When I first read the Current status I thought it was pre harvest and thought, crickey this has to be mendicant game, and what are you doing Angel. Then I realised shake

I'd like to vote Geoff as he's got some good food options and wood coming in steadily from all three of his ocks. But some how after the discussion at the end of the last report I am wary of jumping to conclusions and if it was so simple he wouldn't have posted a two parter.

As for last, originally Angel before realising they had come out of harvest with zero food instead of going in. Therefore Weis was the obvious choice with 6food after the first harvest there may be a falter in food engine.
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Lukas E.
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I think it's difficult to decide at this point of the game, since it depends strongly on when FG is popping up.
The only crucial points (depending on FG in Stage 2) i think were:
- Geoffs not-building room in R4 and occing instead (occing as second action in r4 and clay pit via fg or SP in R5 would have been better i think) and his lost struggle for the first FP and missed first benefit from Charcoal Burner
- Mike's Bread Seller -> if this is his best occ, Patron was a wasted action and all further occs are wasted actions (can't believe it's gonna be a hardcore baking game)

If FG comes in R5, I think Geoff will win, but i voted for Weiss, because he is in a good position for a late FG and seems to keep an important occ back (HoF?).
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Derakon Derakon
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Here's my take on things:

1) Geoff. When in doubt, if Geoff's reporting on a game, you have better odds of him coming out on top than anyone else. He's demonstrated that he's a strong competitive player, which sadly isn't always the case with his opponents (and, all else being equal, the Ugoi and Play-Agricola crowd seem stronger than the BaJ guys). In this specific game, he has a fairly strong position with Charky, and seems set to build a large clay house thanks to the Clay Pit.
2) Weiss. His big problem is that he can't build a room yet, but otherwise he has plenty of slack food-wise to get his farm in gear. Sometimes not having useful early cards can be a blessing; he has good resources, tons of food, and the only thing approaching a food engine (Angel's Simple Fireplace doesn't count).
3) Mike. As noted, Bread Seller is not a compelling followup to Patron. He does have first shot at growth if it comes up, but odds are it won't, so unless he's willing to chain-grab SP he may well not get first growth. It seems likely he's going for the Stone Oven comboing with the Bread Seller, but that's still pretty weak IMO unless he has a better source of grain.
4) Angel. Has demonstrated somewhat poor priorities, getting Conjurer out round 1 instead of taking RSf, for example (if you're going to play Conjurer at all, it doesn't need to be in the first round). As of the harvest, has enough resources to build a room but basically nothing else of note.
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david landes
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My votes are in. Key factors/variability that will impact the outcome:
- The value of Mike's hand of 5 remaining occupations which he has somewhat committed to play
- Whether Mike's three stone is an outgrowth of collecting reed/food, or he actually has some larger card-supported plan
- Whether Family Growth flips for turn 5 (big for Mike)
- Geoff should get 6 wood to start R5 (not knowing what else he has planned) and additionally has banked great wood/clay future resource potential as well as future food support (the goat and 3 to 5 food). Given 5 Occ/MIs played already, the question is whether he has any more support coming from his cards or if he shot the wad in his first 8 moves) (Might have been useful to know whether this was a random 7, random 10 pitch-down, or full pass and select game)
- Weiss is a bit of a wildcard with the 6 food, 2 extra vps, and no initial view into the occupations on hand (It's possible they are weak, but the first move of round 2 was the only real time when one might have been played, and three wood isn't obviosly bad)
- Angel seems worst positioned.

Overall, I think Mike and Geoff will compete for it and Weiss is a wildcard.
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Geoff Burkman
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Aha, now things are getting interesting! In retrospect, I'm wondering if I should have also posted Stage Two. Re derakon's comment, I'm also wondering if I shouldn't post a run of personal losses.
 
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david landes
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Geoff.. I was torn in my victory choice.. but at the last I decided to 'bet against the house' and not choose you... shake
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Derakon Derakon
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MisterG wrote:
Aha, now things are getting interesting! In retrospect, I'm wondering if I should have also posted Stage Two. Re derakon's comment, I'm also wondering if I shouldn't post a run of personal losses.
You can't blame a guy for trying to use past records as an indicator for future performance.

I also chose "margin of victory of 1 point" because I figured you were more likely to post a close game than one with a larger margin, even if the 2-5 margin option would be statistically more likely if we were looking at a random game.
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Benjamin Kerenza
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To start with Geoffs reports are fairly even by his own calculation:
MisterG wrote:
10 Most Recent Reports - 5 Wins, 4 Losses, 1 Tie
50 Most Recent Reports - 22 Wins, 23 Losses, 4 Tie, 1 NA*
100 Most Recent Reports - 48 Wins, 47 Losses, 4 Tie, 1 NA*

* - This was a game in which I served as reporter only.


I chose mostly on the aha value,
Geoff is clearly in a strong position with all that wood and clay and food but that seems too simple. Second option is Mike with his one room, but I feel lilke if he's going to do something with that 3 stone there might be an early swing. If I am truely looking for an aha moment then maybe Angel pulls out grocer?

As for the last place Weiss looks like the ideal condidate for over confidence, especially going into stage two with 6 food and a fireplace.

Derakon wrote:
I also chose "margin of victory of 1 point" because I figured you were more likely to post a close game than one with a larger margin, even if the 2-5 margin option would be statistically more likely if we were looking at a random game.


Thats a good guess I went with the opposite, it's a massive point difference which we never see coming. sufficed to say the only one I knew it wasn't was 2-5.
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I can't answer until I have more information

Is this a draft or dealt game?

Also, can I cheat? (I'm not telling other people how to, just that you can ) (j/k, I'm not going to cheat)

Oh by the way I gave you a tiny bit more geekgold so you can dole more out
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Dave
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Derakon wrote:
Here's my take on things:

1) Geoff. When in doubt, if Geoff's reporting on a game, you have better odds of him coming out on top than anyone else.

"That's just what they'll be expecting..."

I voted Mike. The Patron will no doubt lead to a couple more useful ocks pretty soon. Besides, the family growth opportunity is at the ready.
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Geoff Burkman
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zeroth hour wrote:
I can't answer until I have more information

Is this a draft or dealt game?


Sorry, I did neglect to mention that. E & K decks only, random draw.

Quote:
Also, can I cheat? (I'm not telling other people how to, just that you can ) (j/k, I'm not going to cheat)


I realized post facto that, yes, it would be possible for people to "cheat." I wish to think that no one will, if only to preserve the entertainment value. Plus, it would look mighty suspicious if someone posts anything too close for comfort. So, I guess the answer is, yes, you can, and I'm glad you won't.

Quote:
Oh by the way I gave you a tiny bit more geekgold so you can dole more out


Pineapples, ho!
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Geoff Burkman
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I am also thinking what I might do is wait until the polls close (no, not November) and then post Stage Two with a follow-up poll and opportunity for further comment.
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MisterG wrote:
I am also thinking what I might do is wait until the polls close (no, not November) and then post Stage Two with a follow-up poll and opportunity for further comment.


Alright, my rationales...

Everyone seems to be competent at the level of being able to plan for FG. Great.

Mike: Has the 3rd room already, though that at Stage 1 is actually somewhat of a detriment unless FG comes exactly at R5 (and that's only a 33% chance). 2 food in the bin. Of course, another metric is "who took RSf the most" (since it's the strongest action in S1), and he wins that handily. Has a partial food engine in Patron, so if he's able to get another one (Geoff's Clay Pit brings more clay into the game which he can take advantage of) he should be great. Still, that Bread Seller doesn't seem to be a great first Occ to start with after the Patron, and I'm wondering how good the ones in his hand are... which is why I asked about whether it was a draft game. His Occs may not be good enough to support Patron.

Angel: 1C in R1 is a rather suboptimal play, and given SP + Simple Fp in R2 on the first action (which didn't get used, even as a blocking action against Weiss' Sheep) I'm thinking Angel's at the "I'm planning these actions and doing them" stage in the game (which is fine, since most of us were there at one point) instead of "let's go with the flow on these actions" and will most likely not win. Conjurer and Simple Fp are also at odds since they indicate two different food engines (Grain for baking, Fireplace for ranching). Doesn't have a real food engine, but can exchange one easily (SFp -> CH). But Angel seems to be the worst player in this match, and so odds aren't good (sorry Angel)

Weiss: managed to get a giant pile of food and thus has the best food engine this Stage. However, requires another 2 actions to build a room. If he thrifts at the beginning of R5, he'll be okay. Otherwise doesn't have anything spectacular.

Geoff: Last but not least, is Geoff. Geoff loves his Occs. Is sitting comfortably with Room resources, House Goat (which is a partial food engine) and Charcoal Burner (which is also a partial food engine). House Steward tends to be an indication of confidence in building a large number of rooms, but aside from Wood Deliveryman I don't see a house helper. Perhaps he may have 1 in S2, though Clay Pit helps. Pretty much set for Wood/Clay for the next Stage.

The growth queue, if R5 started with FG, will probably look like:
Mike/Angel/Geoff/Weiss. That extra action to BR really hurts.
If R6/R7 on the other hand, Mike will still probably able to button for a turn or two (he hasn't played a single Minor), so it'll most likely be the same, except Weiss has more breathing room to get the last Reed and BR. So it might look like Mike/Weiss/Angel/Geoff.

Geoff, I noticed that your 2p play has influenced your other plays - you took the fish at R3, for example.

I'm starting to disagree that building room in R4 is the correct answer. I've won games doing that, but that's partially a side effect of being efficient enough to be able to do that. Note that even if FG came up in R5, Mike would still be able to get first dibs by SPing in R4 - though if he lacks a good minor, it may be better for him to do build instead, except he has the same problem in R5 if growth doesn't come up.

Anyways, I think Mike has the best chances going into this round, and only lacks a more stable food source. Geoff is probably second (Charky will give him at least 4W/4f this game) and can easily get that food source.


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Lukas E.
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zeroth hour wrote:


I'm starting to disagree that building room in R4 is the correct answer. I've won games doing that, but that's partially a side effect of being efficient enough to be able to do that.


For Geoff R4-BR would have been the perfect move!!
- Why Occing with his first action an occupation that will give a benefit only 4 rounds later? Obviously to get Clay Pit out while SPing to build next round since Angel took the missing reed.
- With 5w/2r he can't wait for a double wooden-hut-build.

So why not BR instead of Occing as first action, and if he wanted this Clay Pit out soon he could have played the Occ as second action; this would have given him control in R5: FG with Clay Pit (maybe even with second action) or SP with Clay Pit - so he would have got first FG (at least if popping up in R5 or R6) in any case!!
(If he doesn't want to get last in Growing-order) Geoff cannot bring his R4-Clay Pit earlier to use than my R5-Clay-Pit version but he would have won FG-Control in R5 and R6!!!

So either it was a mistake or he is waiting for Renovation and keeps Clay-Supports

R5: Reno with Clay Supports + DL;
R6: 2R + DL;
R7: Build 3 Rooms
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Derakon Derakon
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The other reason to occ first is that occing is often blocked, so he has no guarantee that if he built a room as his first action, occing would still be available for his second. As it turns out nobody played any other occs that round, but he couldn't know that going in. Okay, he probably knew that Weiss or Angel were going to take the sheep, but beyond that...

Not saying you're wrong, just that your suggestion is a more aggressive and vulnerable strategy.
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Geoff Burkman
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Keep 'em coming, gentlemen, this is a fascinating discussion!
 
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Lukas E.
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I meant it was a mistake IF Clay Pit isn't elementary for Geoff's advancement in Stage 2 - the Occ itself isn't obviously.
And this must be a damn good advancement for taking the risk to not grow in R5 and R6 (for example this ClaySupports-triple-building )
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lueg wrote:
I meant it was a mistake IF Clay Pit isn't elementary for Geoff's advancement in Stage 2 - the Occ itself isn't obviously.
And this must be a damn good advancement for taking the risk to not grow in R5 and R6 (for example this ClaySupports-triple-building )


But it would most likely be - if nothing else, having that much Clay supports Pottery, which solves a significant amount of his food problems.

I simply don't think Geoff would grow last even in your scenario - I thought about it some more and I think my growth queue was wrong, simply because I forgot to account for Geoff's SP in R4, which actually was a good move.

Moreover, SP stomping is detrimental to both their plans if late growth appears - but it's actually more detrimental to Geoff. Why? Because if Mike stomps on SP, Geoff is 4th. If Geoff stomps on SP, on the other hand, Mike is 2nd, which isn't that much worse than 1st.

If Geoff had built, though in R4, you'd have the scenario where Mike takes the button to build in R5. That leave Geoff with worse actions in S2, and may have prevented him from doing the Occ thing.

The main problem here is relative positioning.
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Lukas E.
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zeroth hour wrote:

I simply don't think Geoff would grow last even in your scenario - I thought about it some more and I think my growth queue was wrong, simply because I forgot to account for Geoff's SP in R4, which actually was a good move.


- With Fg popping up in R5 he will be second to grow - in my version with BR in R4 he would have been first
- With Fg popping up in R6 he will be third to grow (R5: Geoff has to build; Mike takes SP; Angel takes RSf so Weiss can't build unless he takes single Reed; R6: Mike grows, Angels SPs and BR with second action) - in my version with BR in R4 he would have been first
- With Fg popping up in R7 he will be last to grow (because he is fourth position after Mike who has control now)

[of course all hypothetically - with a 6w space on the board there isn't a guarantee that everyone plays for growing as soon as possible ]

So i think he needs a very good usage of his Clay Pit to compensate that risk (or luck )!!

zeroth hour wrote:

If Geoff had built, though in R4, you'd have the scenario where Mike takes the button to build in R5. That leave Geoff with worse actions in S2, and may have prevented him from doing the Occ thing.

The main problem here is relative positioning.


- When FG is popping up in R5 he would tolerate being last (growing)
OR
- FG not popping up: With a supposable RoomBuilding of 2 players, a 6w and 4c action space and an existential RSf for Angel and Weiss (see above), nobody should have blocked Geoff's Occing (even with his second action; would be good to know if he didn't had anything to play on SP except Clay Pit), if the Occ is that elemental.

But all this is speculation and i'm looking forward for Geoff's posting of Stage 2
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