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Subject: Lannister - Greyjoy Strategies rss

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Heath Stockburn
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With both sides it is a good idea to watch out for siege towers from any of the neighbouring (and there are lots of neighbours) houses.

Lannisters (A Lannister always pays his depts):
Short term target = Take and hold terrotories adjacent to capitol to prevent Tyrell and Greyjoy dominance in negotiations.

Mid Term = Secure good relations with all your neighbours most important being Greyjoy and Baratheon. Most people reccommend an early take down on Baratheon to prevent them from gaining to much power to early and going for an easy victory. This is true, so if you can get the other players to do this whilst you hold back a little this will work wonders for you. If the other players know what they are doing they will still work on Baratheon even without much help from you. Whilst they are working Baratheon you can consolidate the terroitories near you this will give you easy barrel count and a reasonable Consolidate Power range of terrotories without really offending anyone....unless they decide to kill you as a matter of course. If you can work out a no raid deal with Greyjoy, bonus for you both.....give them easy uncontested access to Seaguard, as fighting for it early will be costly to all involved. If you have to scarifice good relations early on and have a choice about it....choose to keep Greyjoy as a friend as long as possible!!!
Always be on your guard from at least three directions, Protect yourself from the sea but don't try a sea strategy as your strengths lie inland and if Greyjoy are playing properly they will not let you own any sea access anyway!!!
Aim to have 4 Strongholds and forts by this point!

Long Term = Maintain an invisible non threatening stance and wait for a moment to sieze. You will sense that there is a moment to strike out and you will have to learnt to spot it. Your aim should be to get all your needed forts and strongholds in one turn, have a full card deck, if possible. Try not to be first player at this stage!
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Heath Stockburn
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Lannister - Greyjoy Strategies Continued
Greyjoy (We do not Sow) arrrh

Short Term = Convince Stark you are not his enemy and work at proving and maintaining this. You have plenty to tempt him with but he has little to offer in return so it is important you don't get into a costly and war of attrition with him. This will allow Lannisters to take you from behind and have their way with you and will stop Stark from the all important task of preventing Baratheon acces to their waters and The Eyrie. Stark will obviously attack you if you look like your going to win, thats fair enough, but short on this you sbould be bezzies throughout!!! Make some sort of arrangement with Lannister if you can, draw a boundry at Sea Guard and sitck to it. (reassure Lannister) Now reinforce it (reassure Lannister and hold a feast for Starks...but not in The Tiwns as it holds bad blood)!!

Mis Term = Use your Consolidate Powers reguallarly and often to seize a mid and late game advantage on the Thrones track...your gonna need it. (Reassure Lannister) Try to look like your a threat to Lannister but don't actually attack them instead you should be working your sea faring dominance down towards Tyrell, steady and sneakily away. Build ships (reasure Lannister) expand down (reasure Lannister) Tyrell should be so taken up with there Lannister and Baratheon Neighbours that you can get to their capitol with ships completely unimpeded. If they decide to stake a claim to the seas....nail them, they are yours 'We do Not Sow'. Reasure Lannister and have a feast for the Starks, marry your daughters off to them, do whatever but keep them really happy coz shortly your going to have a Tyrell bloody wedding and non should be able to stop you. I put two ships in west summer sea ensuring my dominence of the coast.

Long Term = Time this manouvre for round nine or better 10. Take high guarden, Star fall. Then Yron wood. You might have to sacrifice seaguard to either Lannisters or Stark as they start to turn on you but be prepared for this by reserves from Flints Finger and it is possible to sweep a victory.... I did.

arrrh

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JohnnyC Waytobe
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Lannister round one - get Riverrun, Harrenhal and the Blackwater -
or consider a special mustering in Lannisport.

Short term -
Priority #1 secure peace with Greyjoy. The best way of doing this is a knight in Riverrun and 3-4 ships in The Golden Sound with another in the harbor. With the raven you can decide whether to support or raid with those ships.
Priority #2 The Stoney Sept support. Ideally you should control every territory that's adjacient to The Stoney Sept. Keep a knight there and have him support or support +1 for the rest of the game. The territory is not raidable and you'll get +3 to all your defenses (or counter-attacks) in all of what I consider "The Lion's Den."
Priority #3 Do your best to hold onto the raven, it's the best tool for backstabbing/avoiding a backstab. You can use it to prevent attacks (often you won't be attacked if you have the raven, as they know that you'll be able to counter effectively) and then use it to seize openings.

Mid term - play the diplomacy game and find an ally. Use that person to take down someone else. Ideally this is Baratheon, as they're the weakest of your three nighbors and often the most hated. In this fight, it's much better to be the anvil than the hammer.
Additionally, do everything possible to keep your fleet in The golden Sound alive. This will keep Greyjoy honest, which is your most pressing need. Don't be afraid to waste Tywin on an easy fight to gain two power if no one has any power left. The Blackwater is yours, hold it. You can usually do this by ceding The Reach to Tyrell and keeping a strong force/SE in Harrenhal.

Long term - jump on the weakest player. NEVER provoke a fight with an unoccupied player, you're too weak for that. Wait until Martell thrashes Tyrell (or Tyrell overextends himself against Martell). Or Greyjoy gets tired of waiting for you to back down and charges Stark, or for Stark to come to you with a "kill Greyjoy" deal. Or anyone (besides greyjoy) desides to put the hurt on Baratheon.
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JohnnyC Waytobe
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Greyjoy.

First turn: Consolidate power in Port of Pyke. Consolidate poewr in Greywater Watch. March -1 on Pyke, send FM to Flint's Fingers, send Knight to Riverrun. March 0 on ship in Ironman's Bay. If Lannister doesn't put a defense +1 on his ship, then send Aeron. If Tyrion forces you to choose a new card, choose Asha. If he plays The Hound then don't waste your money and just retreat back to Ironman's bay. If he plays anyone else, play Asha (if you can win) or Euron (if he uses someone like Tywin) and kill that damn ship.

Short Term:
Priority #1 - Kill ALL of Lannister's ships. Once you are the undisputed prince of Ironman's Bay/The golden Sound, The Sunset Sea, then you have one of the strongest positions in the game.
Priority #2 - DO NOT attack (the land forces of) Stark or Lannister - or anyone. Sit and wait. Consolidate power, build up your fleet, work on killing Lannister ships, strength the territories around Ironman's Bay, MAYBE take the twins if Stark is occupied or willing, but in general do not stray or attack first - wait for Stark or Lannister to a) come under siege from someone, or b) attack someone else. Then plunge the sword. Speaking of the sword, you don't need it. Focus your energy on the raven.

Mid Term: Wait. Wait. Wait. ATTACK. Hold yourself back. Gather power and wait until Lannister or Stark commits themselves elsewhere. If they team up against you then just turtle down and don't extend beyond the realm of Ironman's Bay, wait for releif from Baratheon or Tyrell.

Long Term: Secure The Golden Sound, take Lannisport. Eliminate Lannister if possible, that's easier to do than Stark. You'll be sitting pretty on five castles. Do your best to get Stoney Sept and Searoad Marches as well, giving Lannisport a buffer. Then you're in range of Moat Calin, Harrenhal, The Reach, and Highgarden. Keep SE on these boarders. Wait until you see two openings, then win.
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Steffen Pedersen
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Why wouldn't you engage the Lannister land forces as Greyjoy? Keeping Lannister on Lannisport and Harrenhal and yourself on Seagard, Riverrun and Pyke (+ Flint's Finger maybe) is the prime strategy. You're not supposed to allow Lannister Riverrun - and you can keep him from it with relative ease.
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econtra wrote:
Why wouldn't you engage the Lannister land forces as Greyjoy? Keeping Lannister on Lannisport and Harrenhal and yourself on Seagard, Riverrun and Pyke (+ Flint's Finger maybe) is the prime strategy. You're not supposed to allow Lannister Riverrun - and you can keep him from it with relative ease.


so untrue: lannister should always consolidate power at lannisport. if they do that, and greyjoy takes riverrun, then lannister summons a siege engine at lannisport. as lannister is ahead on the iron throne trakc, they will be able to attack riverrun with gregor clegane+siege tower. this will result in the complete destruction of all greyjoy troops in riverrun.

the primary targget for both greyjoy and lannister is to make a trustworthy alliance. greyjoy goes north and lannister goes south and keep the alliance honest. this way both armies stay strong. in all my games where lannister and greyjoy have done this (iäve played 12 in total), they have both been close to victory. last time lannister won with greyjoy being second.

in all games where lannister and greyjoy have started fighting early on, neither of them have had a realistic chance of winning.
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David K.
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psst:

Lannisters (A Lannister always pays his depts)

Lannisters (Hear Me Roar!)


Carry on... whistle
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Steffen Pedersen
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noob_saibot wrote:
so untrue: lannister should always consolidate power at lannisport. if they do that, and greyjoy takes riverrun, then lannister summons a siege engine at lannisport. as lannister is ahead on the iron throne trakc, they will be able to attack riverrun with gregor clegane+siege tower. this will result in the complete destruction of all greyjoy troops in riverrun.

the primary targget for both greyjoy and lannister is to make a trustworthy alliance. greyjoy goes north and lannister goes south and keep the alliance honest. this way both armies stay strong. in all my games where lannister and greyjoy have done this (iäve played 12 in total), they have both been close to victory. last time lannister won with greyjoy being second.

in all games where lannister and greyjoy have started fighting early on, neither of them have had a realistic chance of winning.


I responded to you in another thread as well, I'll copy my reply here:

econtra wrote:
noob_saibot wrote:
never even consider taking riverrun at start (unless u r ahead of lannister on the iron throne track, which is not the case at start).

if u take riverrun, lannister will muster a siege tower and attack riverrun with gregor clegane before u are able to move or do anything (because he is ahead of u on the iron throne track).

ofc if the lannister is noob and doesnt consolidate at lannisport in order to protect riverrun or if he doesnt see that gregor+siege= decimation, then u are playing next to someone who doesnt really know how to play well and u can do pretty much anything vs him.


No offense, but you're so very, very wrong. Not taking Riverrun is a terrible idea. Lets do some math:

If the Lannister "isn't noob" and consolidates a siege engine in Lannisport Greyjoy will take Riverrun with a single footman, moving his knight to Seagard. In turn 2, he will raid Lannisters ship and a potential support in Stoney Sept/Harrenhal (wherever Lannister moved his footman). The only Lannister order left will be march +1 in Lannisport.

Lets consider the Lannister options:

Attack only with footman and knight. Battle is 4v1 Greyjoy plays Damphair. If you play Tywin or Ser Gregor, Greyjoy swaps to Balon and wins. If you play any lower or Ser Kevan, Greyjoy swaps to Euron and claims a casualty. Lannister is left with only Lannisport against Greyjoy's Pyke, Seagard and Riverrun.

Now lets consider the option you probably had in mind, marching with all your strength:

Lannister initial power is 8 vs Greyjoy 1. Greyjoy plays Asha or Cleftjaw and only Ser Gregor will claim a casualty (which only will be the footman).

Meanwhile, the clever Greyjoy have left a march +0 on the Seagard knight. Greyjoy attacks with 2 against Lannisters 3, leaving behind a power token.

Starting to get a queasy feeling? So am I. Damphair into Euron + sword ensures the win, wiping out the siege engine and a footman (unless Lannister plays The Hound, in which case Greyjoy can get away with swapping to Theon).

Turn 2 ends, again with Greyjoy on 6 muster points against Lannisters 3. And all this was assuming no muster was drawn in turn 2 or 3. If that should happen, ye, you're screwed.
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JohnnyC Waytobe
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The problem with your Riverrun math is that it doesn't happen in a vacuum. If such a blood-bath were to occur then Greyjoy would enjoy a decent bit of hostility at the table, and almost certainlly see Stark use the opportunity to attack at Seagard, Flint's Fingers, and Greywater Watch. The idea is to avoid a two-front war, and such an early altercation makes you appear like a weakened target. Also, if you're going into battle 8vs1 (or even 6 vs 1) just play cersie and kill the Greyjoy counterattack. Then you can nab Seagard and your next turn, and hold it with Stark support and it's suddenly Lannister who is sitting on 7 Muster points while Greyjoy has 3.
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JohnnyC Waytobe
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Quote:


in all games where lannister and greyjoy have started fighting early on, neither of them have had a realistic chance of winning.


I would direct you to PBF games #1 and #3 - I'm greyjoy in both games. I won the first one, and have a decent shot at winning in the third one. In game 1 I eliminated Lannister, and I'm about to do so again in game #3.
 
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Steffen Pedersen
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JohnnyCwtb wrote:
The problem with your Riverrun math is that it doesn't happen in a vacuum. If such a blood-bath were to occur then Greyjoy would enjoy a decent bit of hostility at the table, and almost certainlly see Stark use the opportunity to attack at Seagard, Flint's Fingers, and Greywater Watch. The idea is to avoid a two-front war, and such an early altercation makes you appear like a weakened target. Also, if you're going into battle 8vs1 (or even 6 vs 1) just play cersie and kill the Greyjoy counterattack. Then you can nab Seagard and your next turn, and hold it with Stark support and it's suddenly Lannister who is sitting on 7 Muster points while Greyjoy has 3.


Hmm, good points.

First of all, playing Cersei in a 6v1 scenario isn't enough (Euron + blade). In a 8v1, it would be enough obviously, though not resulting in a Greyjoy casualty.

About the vacuum-argument, I've experienced many Starks content with leaving Greyjoy alone for the first many turns and focusing where they should - the Narrow Sea.

Besides, the argument goes both ways. Vacating Lannisport leaves it open to the Tyrells (who can get there in 2 turns) and Baratheon may even pressure Harrenhal.
 
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JohnnyC Waytobe
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econtra wrote:
JohnnyCwtb wrote:
The problem with your Riverrun math is that it doesn't happen in a vacuum. If such a blood-bath were to occur then Greyjoy would enjoy a decent bit of hostility at the table, and almost certainlly see Stark use the opportunity to attack at Seagard, Flint's Fingers, and Greywater Watch. The idea is to avoid a two-front war, and such an early altercation makes you appear like a weakened target. Also, if you're going into battle 8vs1 (or even 6 vs 1) just play cersie and kill the Greyjoy counterattack. Then you can nab Seagard and your next turn, and hold it with Stark support and it's suddenly Lannister who is sitting on 7 Muster points while Greyjoy has 3.


Hmm, good points.

First of all, playing Cersei in a 6v1 scenario isn't enough (Euron + blade). In a 8v1, it would be enough obviously, though not resulting in a Greyjoy casualty.

About the vacuum-argument, I've experienced many Starks content with leaving Greyjoy alone for the first many turns and focusing where they should - the Narrow Sea.

Besides, the argument goes both ways. Vacating Lannisport leaves it open to the Tyrells (who can get there in 2 turns) and Baratheon may even pressure Harrenhal.


These are valid counters. In my games, I find that the "agressor" metagame is a bit severe and I usually make out better on the whole if I have people invading my territories rather than the other way around. That is not to say, however, that you're wrong.

More than anything this confirms my theory that Greyjoy is a bit of a powerhouse. I'm usually content to let them have anything that touches Ironman's Bay, as it would be damn hard to stop them anyway. When they extend beyond that, however, I think they are ripe for a beatdown, and you can keep them contained to that sea fairly effectively with a bit of diplomacy and vigilance.

Along these lines, a Baratheon or Martell player who wants to hurt Greyjoy should simply lay off of Stark/ attack Tyrell respectively. This will in turn create a shift where Stark will turn to face Greyjoy, and Lannister will be relieved of Tyrell in the south to focus on Greyjoy in the north.
 
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Steffen Pedersen
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Allow me to add another consideration.

Say Lannister takes Riverrun with 8 strength in turn 2 and plays Cersei to remove the Greyjoy march in Seagard. The smart Greyjoy will have placed a march in Greywater Watch as well. Cersei claims no casualty, allowing the Riverrun footman to retreat and claim Flint's Finger. The footman marches from Greywater Watch, takes Riverrun and destroys the siege engine (even doable with a -1 march using Balon + blade). Again, Lannister is left on 3 mustering points against Greyjoy's 7 - and without having consolidated power or claimed supply for 2 full turns.

The case I'm making is simply that the Lannister-Greyjoy balance of power is ludicrously skewed. Greyjoy can practically ensure a crippled-beyond-repair Lannister if he wished. I'm not saying it's a winning Greyjoy strategy by any means, but keeping a 7-3 mustering points advantage with 100% certainty till turn 3 (possibly longer) over your neighbor seems ridiculous - and all this without any guessing or lucking out on order placement or house card selection for Greyjoy and assuming Lannister-friendly Westeros cards.

Greyjoy is a powerhouse, and playing Lannister permissively and yieldingly while waiting for Stark might be the way to go. Take up the fight for Riverrun and you will perish in the attempt.
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Zachary Bardou
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seems like Lannister should cede the sea, press for max supply, and establish an inland support column of foot, with coastal holdings/tyrell on the left and your attacking armies on the right...
 
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Ståle Mellesdal
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I haven't played the game much, so I might be missing something obvious, but it seems you're assuming you'll be able to raid the support +1 on the Lannister footman from Riverrun. What happens if the Greyjoy player plays as outlined above, but the Lannister player has played a raid on his ship in the Golden Sound? This entire discussion assumes that there hasn't been a Clash of Kings, so he will be able to raid the Greyjoy raid in Riverrun, correct?
 
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Łukasz 'farmer'
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econtra wrote:
No offense, but you're so very, very wrong. Not taking Riverrun is a terrible idea. Lets do some math:

If the Lannister "isn't noob" and consolidates a siege engine in Lannisport Greyjoy will take Riverrun with a single footman, moving his knight to Seagard. In turn 2, he will raid Lannisters ship and a potential support in Stoney Sept/Harrenhal (wherever Lannister moved his footman). The only Lannister order left will be march +1 in Lannisport.

Lets consider the Lannister options:

Attack only with footman and knight. Battle is 4v1 Greyjoy plays Damphair. If you play Tywin or Ser Gregor, Greyjoy swaps to Balon and wins. If you play any lower or Ser Kevan, Greyjoy swaps to Euron and claims a casualty. Lannister is left with only Lannisport against Greyjoy's Pyke, Seagard and Riverrun.

Now lets consider the option you probably had in mind, marching with all your strength:

Lannister initial power is 8 vs Greyjoy 1. Greyjoy plays Asha or Cleftjaw and only Ser Gregor will claim a casualty (which only will be the footman).

Meanwhile, the clever Greyjoy have left a march +0 on the Seagard knight. Greyjoy attacks with 2 against Lannisters 3, leaving behind a power token.

Starting to get a queasy feeling? So am I. Damphair into Euron + sword ensures the win, wiping out the siege engine and a footman (unless Lannister plays The Hound, in which case Greyjoy can get away with swapping to Theon).

Turn 2 ends, again with Greyjoy on 6 muster points against Lannisters 3. And all this was assuming no muster was drawn in turn 2 or 3. If that should happen, ye, you're screwed.

First turn,
Greyjoy in Rivverun (1 foot).
Lannister consolidates in Lannisport (SE).

Second turn:
Lannister raids with his flets: Rivverun (if raid there) or support on G fleets
Lannister attacks +1 Riverrun with footman (2 strenght)
Lannister supports +1 with Lannisport army (8 strenght)
Cersei played to prevent counterattack.
In Riverrun is now Lannisters army with 5 strenght in defence.

If Greyjoy attacked (in turn 1) Riverrun with stronger forces, instead of using Cersei, you're using Gregor and... KABUUUM!

Third turn:
Is attack on Riverun good option for G, in in Lannisport stands such an army (knight, footman and SE)?


Ha, is it ok guys? I just figured it out, reading your posts devil

yours,
farm
 
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Jean Jean´s last name
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Just one thing
I think you forgot the 2. Greyjoy march in turn 2
Greyjoy places -1 on the Seaguard knight and +0 on the Greywater Watch footman
Lannister removes one of them with the Cersei attack
Lannister raids the Riverrun raid to protect the +1 support in Lannisport
That leaves the support in Ironman´s Bay
So with sword Greyjoy can still attack with 3, winning with Balon in Riverrun

or did i miss something?
 
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Ståle Mellesdal
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Well, he did mention raiding the Lannister ship, but I don't see how that will do any good, so you're right that a support from the Greyjoy ship would be more useful. However:
Blaukaeppchen wrote:

So with sword Greyjoy can still attack with 3, winning with Balon in Riverrun
Not against Kevan, he can't. Kevan's printed strength will be 0, but he'll still make both footmen +2, making it 7 against 5. As far as I can see, Kevan will make it a certain loss for Greyjoy.
 
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Jean Jean´s last name
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My Kevan card says it only works when Lannister is attacking
Is that a missprint?

And you can still play Damphair and swap him into Euron instead of Balon to win vs Kevan
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farmeriusz wrote:
First turn,
Greyjoy in Rivverun (1 foot).
Lannister consolidates in Lannisport (SE).

Second turn:
Lannister raids with his flets: Rivverun (if raid there) or support on G fleets
Lannister attacks +1 Riverrun with footman (2 strenght)
Lannister supports +1 with Lannisport army (8 strenght)
Cersei played to prevent counterattack.
In Riverrun is now Lannisters army with 5 strenght in defence.

If Greyjoy attacked (in turn 1) Riverrun with stronger forces, instead of using Cersei, you're using Gregor and... KABUUUM!

Third turn:
Is attack on Riverun good option for G, in in Lannisport stands such an army (knight, footman and SE)?


Ha, is it ok guys? I just figured it out, reading your posts devil

yours,
farm


The problem is that if greyjoy has a march -1 on greywaterwatch, and march +0 on pyke. If he sees you consolidating, he can take flint fingers, seagard and riverrun, on the first turn. If there's a mustering, Greyjoy will have 7 mustering points to your 2/3 muster points.

3 out of the 10 cards has mustering while another 2 gives baratheron the choice to muster. I don't know if you want to take that chance.

Consolidating in Lannisport to retake , is not a bad idea just has it's risk that mustering will blow up the plans.

That's exactly what happened in one of the games out there.
 
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Ståle Mellesdal
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Blaukaeppchen wrote:
My Kevan card says it only works when Lannister is attacking
Is that a missprint?

And you can still play Damphair and swap him into Euron instead of Balon to win vs Kevan
Well, I don't have the card near (or even own the game myself), I was just going by the house card summary, so I think you're right about Kevan only working on attack.

(As for using Euron, with strength 1, support 1, sword 1, Euron 4, that would leave Greyjoy at 7. If Kevan did work on the defense, that would be footman 1, support 3+1, Kevan 1 + 2, taking Lannister to 8.)

bball_homer wrote:
The problem is that if greyjoy has a march -1 on greywaterwatch, and march +0 on pyke. If he sees you consolidating, he can take flint fingers, seagard and riverrun, on the first turn. If there's a mustering, Greyjoy will have 7 mustering points to your 2/3 muster points.

3 out of the 10 cards has mustering while another 2 gives baratheron the choice to muster. I don't know if you want to take that chance.

Consolidating in Lannisport to retake , is not a bad idea just has it's risk that mustering will blow up the plans.

That's exactly what happened in one of the games out there.
The question is, is there any way at all for Lannister to prevent Greyjoy taking Riverrun and Seagard on turn 1? Or are you suggesting letting them have those 2 and just focusing your forces east and south?
 
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JohnnyC Waytobe
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bball_homer wrote:
farmeriusz wrote:
First turn,
Greyjoy in Rivverun (1 foot).
Lannister consolidates in Lannisport (SE).

Second turn:
Lannister raids with his flets: Rivverun (if raid there) or support on G fleets
Lannister attacks +1 Riverrun with footman (2 strenght)
Lannister supports +1 with Lannisport army (8 strenght)
Cersei played to prevent counterattack.
In Riverrun is now Lannisters army with 5 strenght in defence.

If Greyjoy attacked (in turn 1) Riverrun with stronger forces, instead of using Cersei, you're using Gregor and... KABUUUM!

Third turn:
Is attack on Riverun good option for G, in in Lannisport stands such an army (knight, footman and SE)?


Ha, is it ok guys? I just figured it out, reading your posts devil

yours,
farm


The problem is that if greyjoy has a march -1 on greywaterwatch, and march +0 on pyke. If he sees you consolidating, he can take flint fingers, seagard and riverrun, on the first turn. If there's a mustering, Greyjoy will have 7 mustering points to your 2/3 muster points.

3 out of the 10 cards has mustering while another 2 gives baratheron the choice to muster. I don't know if you want to take that chance.

Consolidating in Lannisport to retake , is not a bad idea just has it's risk that mustering will blow up the plans.

That's exactly what happened in one of the games out there.


If greyjoy follows through on these plans, and lannister raided ironman's bay instead of the Riverrun raid - then Stark should have an easy time rolling Greyjoy - taking Flint's Finger,s Greywater Watch, and Seagard that turn.
 
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Steffen Pedersen
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Hmmm let's see.

First of all, Kevan's bonus is attacking only. If it wasn't, Lannister could hold Riverrun in tuyrn 1 with ship support, Lannisport support +1 and Stoney Sept march (1 support order + 4 total support + 1 footman in Riverrun + 2 Kevan bonus + 1 Kevan = 9) vs Greyjoy 3 from units, 4 from Euron and 1 from sword - again assuming Greyjoy doesn't support on his ships. Sadly, Kevan is defense only.

And you're quite right Lukas, raiding in Riverrun is obviously is best choice, ensuring your support +1 won't be removed. This is of course assuming you control the Golden Sound at all, which Greyjoy can take with Balon even if you defended +2 there, or cheaper with Victarion if you didn't (If Greyjoy anticipates consolidate in Lannisport, he might as well put the +0 march on his ship).



Your strategy is so very close, but just not enough . Lets say you raid Riverrun from the Golden Sound. Ironman's Bay is now free to support Riverrun with +1. You attack, play Cersei, and remove the counterattack in Seagard.

However, the shrewd Greyjoy has played the -1 on his knight and the +0 on his footman. No matter which order you remove with Cersei, he will be able to attack with 1 force + 1 Ironman's Bay support. Riverrun is, as you say, at 5 strength for defense. Greyjoy attacks with 2 strength and plays Balon + blade, ensuring the victory.

At the end of turn 2, Lannister is at 3 mustering points, Greyjoy 7 (as he retreated to Flint's Finger with his routed footman).

EDIT: In this light, the best decision for Lannister would be to play Gregor when taking Riverrun and claim the footman casualty, as Greyjoy will get his counterattack no matter what. This, however, will leave Greyjoy with 2 marches (as Cersei wasn't played) to take both Riverrun with Balon, and Flint's Finger with the other march, leaving the balance at power at 7-3 all the same.
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JohnnyC Waytobe
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This is all true, but I do maintain that Lannister isn't hopeless. Playing Cersei instead of Gregor will leave Lannister with all of their best cards, and having Greyjoy losing some of their best. Similarly, I don't think you can expect Greyjoy to hold onto the sword this entire time. Lastly, if a Greyjoy does decide he shall have Riverrun, a Stark Ship in The Bay of Ice and a marching knight in Moat Calin are two possible ways that Stark can put enough pressure on Greyjoy to keep him back in his cage.

Beyond a doubt, Greyjoy can give Lannister a good thrashing, but he'll lose the game if there's good diplomacy around the table and he decides to bully Lannister out of Riverrun. This is something Lannister should make plain to Baratheon and Stark, who can probably be persuaded that it's better to prevent Greyjoy from consolidating his power within The Sunset Sea than it is to break off tasty chunks of Lion.
 
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Steffen Pedersen
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By no means hopeless The balance just seem skewed.

And about the sword, all it takes is no CoK in 2 turns, and even if a CoK is drawn, Greyjoy will have consolidated in Greywater + Pyke port turn 1, and Pyke port turn 2, leaving him better off than Lannister, who with certainly lose the raven, while Greyjoy most likely will gain a special order or two and might even win the initiative (higher Throne placement). I see a CoK bidding as working against Lannister frankly.

You're right though, Greyjoy will have expended Balon (while still having Euron) and Lannister only Cersei - and still have all his strength (since siege tower was supporting), which leaves Lannister in a decent situation, though still with 3 vs. 7 muster points and still without opportunities to consolidate. Around this time Stark should start worrying at the kraken from the north.
 
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