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Subject: Win/Loss Records after over 100 Plays rss

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Tim Mierz
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After 128 plays of Neuroshima Hex and its expansions, I decided to see what armies have had the best track record in games I've played. I know this isn't a statistically significant sample, but it's still interesting.

Armies are listed in order of how many games I've played with them in the game. All plays are 2-player only. Well over half of the plays are using the Duel board.


Army Win Loss Tie Percent Won
Outpost 20 24 1 44%
Borgo 22 10 2 65%
Hegemony 12 22 0 35%
New York 14 16 3 47%
Moloch 14 11 6 45%
Neojungle 12 12 4 46%
Smart 10 12 3 40%
Vegas 10 10 3 43%
Doomsday 3 0 0 100%


Discounting Doomsday, which has gotten very few plays, most armies have won somewhere in the 40-50% win range, except for two. Borgo is far and away better in my games than the others, and Hegemony is certainly the worst.

Borgo has a 10-5 record against Outpost, 3-1 against Hegemony, 3-3 against Vegas, and 3 or fewer games against all other armies.

Hegemony is 5-5 against Moloch, 2-3 against Outpost, 1-3 against Borgo and New York and Smart, and 3 or fewer games against all other armies.

I don't know why Moloch has so many ties (6 out of 31 games), but it's worth noting that 3 were against Neojungle. Also, all 6 of those times, my opponent was the one using Moloch, not me.

11 games out of 128 ended in a tie. Only in one game was the final score 0-0.

It's good having the stats back up Hegemony being the weakest army in these games - we've felt that way for a while, but I brushed it off as a misperception. Have other people had such a poor showing for Hegemony and such a good one for Borgo?
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Paul DeStefano
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My daughter is a monster with Hegemony. Now, we often play 3 player, so maybe Hegemony shines multiplayer.
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Russ Williams
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Funny that Doomsday won all 3 games. We found they were harder to win with until we got the hang of them, and I've read others say the same.

I used to keep stats on the individual armies for our games, but got lazy.
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Was George Orwell an Optimist?
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TimMierz wrote:
It's good having the stats back up Hegemony being the weakest army in these games - we've felt that way for a while, but I brushed it off as a misperception. Have other people had such a poor showing for Hegemony and such a good one for Borgo?

If a couple hundred users each documented that many plays, we might be able to sort out intrinsic strength from playing style, but I doubt that will happen. Isn't there a game site where people play live games? The admins on that site might have similar data, based on cumulative play by large numbers of people. That data would be more persuasive about relative faction strength.
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J
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Assuming these are your win percentages going from when you started playing to the present Borgo's top standing isn't that surprising.

Of all the current factions comparatively there is probably the littlest difference in how an experienced player plays Borgo vs an inexperienced player.

I'm surprised that Hedge is so low. I usually find Hedge one of the most balanced factions since thanks to a mixture of fast units, high damage and the highest number of nets they can do very well against pretty much any other faction.

I'm also surprised that Neo is as high as it is. In my experience I usually find them fairly tricky to play as and often their performance is proportional to their luck with mods (Many a time I've played them with horrendous mod luck).
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Russ Williams
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Sphere wrote:
Isn't there a game site where people play live games?

There was, but it apparently went away:
Where is my NH Online?
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Very interesting stats, thanks for sharing. We aren't particularly good with Hegemony either. Despite the well constructed deck, somehow they considered the most challenging at us, out of the four original factions.

I'm surprised by Moloch, though. Shouldn't it be much higher, at least on par with Borgo? Are we playing too defensively, or does it something to do with the Duel board?
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Bern Harkins
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This post got me curious enough to tabulate my thirty-six three player games. I hadn't realized Hegemony had such a bad track record; NY and Vegas were also a surprise, since they perform strongly game to game; apparently, they just aren't quite winning.
Again, these are three player games, hence the low percentages.

Army Win Loss Tie Percent Won
Outpost 7 9 1 41%
Borgo 5 5 1 45%
Hegemony 3 18 2 13%
New York 1 10 2 08%
Moloch 9 7 4 45%
Neojungle 4 7 0 36%
Smart 2 3 1 33%
Vegas 2 8 1 18%


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Tim Mierz
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Russ: I never played with Doomsday personally - that was my friend Luke playing against me - but all three of its wins were against armies I was very new at (Vegas once, Smart twice). That, and Luke's really good at the game.

Sphere: I understand that this is certainly not a representative example of BGG, and that having a constant player in all of the games majorly skews the data.

In case it's of interest, out of the above games, my personal stats:
Borgo, 16-2-1
Moloch, 11-2-0
Hegemony, 10-5-0
Outpost, 13-3-1
Neojungle, 10-3-3
New York, 11-6-2
Vegas, 8-3-0
Smart, 7-5-3
Doomsday, 0-0-0

When I control Hegemony, they're not great for me, but it's not quite as devastating a drop as it is for my opponents who play Hegemony (going a collective 2-17-0!). For comparison, they play Borgo at 6-8-1.

Allstar: This speaks to your point about newer players' style versus more experienced players' style. The fact that both I and my opponents have the best time with Borgo, while my record with Hegemony and Outpost is far better than my opponents', shows that some armies are "learned" more than others.

I have found Neojungle to be high-luck compared to the other armies, but when things come together, they're nearly unstoppable. It's susceptible to having weak points that a good player can pinpoint, but get enough Medics and system redundancy and you're in good shape.

Midaga: Moloch's stats are skewed a bit both by the unusually high amount of ties and the fact that it's the base army I've encountered the least. It's one of only two armies that have won more games than lost in games I've been in, and its Air Strike and Clown always terrify me.

Radulla: Wow, New York hasn't been that amazing in my experience, but I'm shocked that it does so terribly in 3-player! I have next to no multiplayer experience, but I would think that the HQ toughness would make the NY player a less likely target, since most attacks wouldn't accomplish as much, but is MP determined by who deals the most damage? In that case, NY doesn't have tons of firepower aside from the Rocket Launcher, so I guess it would have a tough time racking up the points. It's a shame Hegemony and Vegas are also not great performers in your game either. Vegas is one of my favorites to play with, even though its record isn't anything outstanding.
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Jesper Eriksson
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I did something simmilar with the AI of rank 3 in teh iOS version of Neuroshima HEX!

i did 75 battles, 5 vs each setup, and wrote down each result, saved em in a spreadsheet and did some math on the scores.

all matches was with AI rank 3

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnIXUDqP72MddFc...

i will probably do some more battles, when ever i get time and is realy boored.
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Bern Harkins
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TimMierz wrote:


Radulla: Wow, New York hasn't been that amazing in my experience, but I'm shocked that it does so terribly in 3-player! I have next to no multiplayer experience, but I would think that the HQ toughness would make the NY player a less likely target, since most attacks wouldn't accomplish as much, but is MP determined by who deals the most damage? In that case, NY doesn't have tons of firepower aside from the Rocket Launcher, so I guess it would have a tough time racking up the points. It's a shame Hegemony and Vegas are also not great performers in your game either. Vegas is one of my favorites to play with, even though its record isn't anything outstanding.


As I said, I was surprised by the actual numbers.

Three player games tend to be quite close, given that each player is sizing up his opponents relative positions and focussing their attentions accordingly. That, combined with the greater variance of a very small number of games, might account for the low win rates; luck is a bigger factor in winning, and there aren't enough games to even out chance.

I think of NY as a strong contender who always has to be reckoned with (and NOT allowed to "turtle") and of Vegas as frustratingly hard to pin down. The final scores don't seem to be reflecting the play experience... except for Hegemony. They are a little weak, we all agree, but quite playable.
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Here are my results in online play after 128 matches:

Wins Losses Ties %
Overall 88 35 5 71%

PLAYING WITH
Wins Losses Ties %

Outpost 27 4 3 84%
Borgo 14 3 1 81%
Moloch 17 6 1 73%
New York 9 4 0 69%
Neojungle 10 8 0 56%
Hegemony 11 10 0 52%


(Key: Outpost = green, Borgo = blue, Moloch = red, New York = purple, Neojungle = olive, Hegemony = yellow.)

So I did best with Outpost and Borgo and worst with Hegemony and Neojungle.

PLAYING AGAINST
Wins Losses Ties %

Moloch 15 11 2 57%
Borgo 15 10 0 60%
Hegemony 5 3 0 63%
Neojungle 17 5 2 75%
New York 19 3 1 85%
Outpost 17 3 0 85%


These I sorted in reverse order, so the higher on the list, the better the faction worked for my opponents. My opponents did best with Moloch and Borgo and worst with Outpost and New York. It's amusing that the faction I did best with is the faction they did worst with, namely Outpost. It makes sense, since Outpost takes skill to play, and some of my opponents are newbies. The most common mistake my opponents make with Outpost is to place the HQ in a corner.

My opponents also did poorly with New York, which might surprise you, but it's because I'm 15-2-1 with Outpost versus New York. When my opponents choose New York, I choose Outpost. It makes sense why Outpost rules New York. (Repeating ranged damage drills through New York's beefed defense.)

I'm 8-6-0 with Neojungle versus Borgo. That's a bad record for me. I tried for that matchup a lot initially, since it worked well against the AI, but it failed too often versus human opponents. All too often Neojungle can't get its motherland off the ground against Borgo and thus fails to build up an edge in initiative.

I'm 7-5-0 with Hegemony versus Moloch. Again, bad for me. Hegemony is strong if it gets its Transport hooked up to its HQ and some ranged shooters (especially with Quartermaster), but Moloch can nuke that setup.

I'm 6-1-1 with Moloch versus Neojungle. That makes sense, since again Moloch can nuke the opponent's clustered units.

I'm 7-0-0 with Borgo versus Outpost, but 4-0-0 with the reverse, so it may just be a matter of the skill factor with Outpost.

My overall conclusion is that the most important factor in victory is the initial selection of faction. In online play, I try to let my opponent pick first. I think the next most important thing is the initial placement of the HQ. I often believe the battle is won after the selection of factions and placement of HQ's.

UPDATE (REUPDATED): After 200 300 matches, here are my stats:


Can you understand that? Left side is my army and across the top is the opponent's army, and then there are totals of each row and column (plus percentages) and a grand total at bottom right. The red entries are statistically significant (to .10 confidence, double-tailed Fisher Exact Test). So, compared to my overall record, I rock with Borgo versus Outpost, but stink with Hegemony versus Outpost, Neojungle versus Moloch, and with every army in general versus Moloch.
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