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Summoner Wars: Master Set» Forums » General

Subject: Balance argument- Or how I'm arguing statistics with truthiness rss

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Jonathan Farmer
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How dare you bring statistics to a an argument based on wild supposition.
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Wind Lane
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RPGs - Natures way of saying "You would never be able to do this in real life." NOT A BAD THING.
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All the world's a stage, and I feel like the janitor.
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How about this statistic for that blowhard: Guild Dwarves have won the most tournaments out of all the factions. Though that has more to do with an errata'd card and that they were one of the first factions.
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Fede Miguez
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so what has Colby to do with anything of this?

PS: the solution is to call exactly the opposite quoting random threads from the forums, there are always someone calling X faction overpowered.
 
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Joseph Arthur Ellis
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I think the iOS version will also help... Assuming statistics will be tracked by PlayDek, we'll be able to see the overall records, and more importantly, the records of the winningest players against other winningest players, for each faction.
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Jeremy Yoder
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TheFlatline wrote:
So now he's revised his statement that it's pretty well balanced for *casual* play, but any *competitive* tourney player could instantly see the imbalance inherent in the game. and thus render competitive play impossible.


I'd tell him the very opposite, which his own experience shows -- casual play will make some factions appear imbalanced, but competitive play will make a person figure out the various faction nuances.

If you continue to go deep down the SW rabbit hole, then you can see where certain base deck faction match-ups may be tilted to one faction a bit more, but nothing lopsided -- card order, dice, and tactical choices change every game.

Then add customization with reinforcements and mercenaries (especially when you know the faction you're about to play against) and the stronger player has a better chance of winning, far more than any such thing as "a stronger faction."
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Colby Dauch
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There is really no point in arguing. I have long made it known that I believe that a large percentage of people firmly believe themselves to be the smartest person on earth (or at least close to it). So this guy looks at a record of thousands of games played and instantly dismisses it, because almost all of those people are stupid, and he on the other hand is superior. So his limited sampling trumps theirs because he has figured out what none of them has.

I don't think many people recognize this in themselves, but it shows itself out at conventions. If I, or one of my demo guys, goes full out on a first time player demoing the game (only really happens when we are ready to leave for dinner ), then that first time player will walk away disappointed with the game or even point out how the faction he was playing is useless. Never mind that its his first time playing, never mind that he came up against someone with hundreds of plays under their belt, never mind that if we couldn't beat them thoroughly then SW really is a luck fest, they lost quite simply because of a perceived game balance issue. Why? Because that is the only possible explanation that lines up with their world view that they have a far superior intelligence to those around them.
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Jim Crowell

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screamingtruth wrote:
There is really no point in arguing. I have long made it known that I believe that a large percentage of people firmly believe themselves to be the smartest person on earth (or at least close to it).



There's actually some relevant research on the "Everyone thinks they're a better than average driver" factoid; Dan Simons of the U. of Illinois got an Ig Nobel Prize for it.

He derived a "good driver" score for a sample of people based on police records of accidents and citations, then asked everyone in the sample to rate themselves as a driver. The ratings of people who were in the upper half of the sample on the "good driver" metric were strongly correlated with the metric, whereas those from the bottom half showed very little correlation.

In plain English, many people aren't bright enough to know that they're bad drivers. Now generalize at will.

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David
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Oh My Godz Grognackz is so OP! That guys pwnZORZ SW.


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Mike Melcher
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TheFlatline wrote:
So I pulled out the file that had the thousands of matchups in excel format (great file BTW) and showed that not only was he wrong about CG vs GD matchups, but there was no overblown power discrepancy in a global sense or even in his limited examples.


Glad I was able to help, even if they didn't want to pay attention to the numbers. :P

I have seen this as well, where a lot of people feel as though there is an imbalance due to them losing a game. Especially if the other player fully trounces them. Honestly, as I get new factions and, almost guaranteed, subsequently lose my first round with a faction, I always like to take a look back and see what kind of changes I could have made in my play to take advantage of the faction's abilities. Overall, I trust that if stated that the factions are balanced, then they have a good reason for saying that and I just need to see what turns up as far as varying strategies.

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Fede Miguez
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TheFlatline wrote:
Part of the problem is that the dude was seeing the penalties of the Tundra Orcs and bitching about how they're inherently weaker, when I was saying "dude, a 1/3 creature for one magic is EVIL". He just wouldn't listen.
Heh, the TO are considered top tier faction right now. Bring on those penalties!
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Mike Melcher
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TheFlatline wrote:
"Melch"][q="TheFlatline"]So I pulled out the file that had the thousands of matchups in excel format (great file BTW) and showed that not only was he wrong about CG vs GD matchups, but there was no overblown power discrepancy in a global sense or even in his limited examples.


Glad I was able to help, even if they didn't want to pay attention to the numbers.

I have seen this as well, where a lot of people feel as though there is an imbalance due to them losing a game. Especially if the other player fully trounces them. Honestly, as I get new factions and, almost guaranteed, subsequently lose my first round with a faction, I always like to take a look back and see what kind of changes I could have made in my play to take advantage of the faction's abilities. Overall, I trust that if stated that the factions are balanced, then they have a good reason for saying that and I just need to see what turns up as far as varying strategies.

[/q wrote:


That was you? I don't remember if I tipped you there, but I'll tip you here for one hell of a good job on the spreadsheet. There were a few typos (months missing that threw the numbers off) but once I realized that I got a *lot* of useful data out of it.

Part of the problem is that the dude was seeing the penalties of the Tundra Orcs and bitching about how they're inherently weaker, when I was saying "dude, a 1/3 creature for one magic is EVIL". He just wouldn't listen.


Yeah, there were actually some gaps in the data simply because the data was based solely on people voluntarily reporting their plays in. There were some factions that didn't have any plays reported the whole month so sadly, no data. As for other typos... oops. Hehe, just miss things a bit sometimes.

Thanks a ton for the tip!

I think it's just funny that people will refuse to believe the data because they don't see how it is possible.
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James Sitz
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PePe QuiCoSE wrote:
TheFlatline wrote:
Part of the problem is that the dude was seeing the penalties of the Tundra Orcs and bitching about how they're inherently weaker, when I was saying "dude, a 1/3 creature for one magic is EVIL". He just wouldn't listen.
Heh, the TO are considered top tier faction right now. Bring on those penalties!


And perfectly rational people still dislike Shamans and Smashers.

shake

It's also funny that someone thinks the Guild Dwarves are useless.

This guy needs to play against more than one other person.
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