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Subject: Mythic Rarity (or: Did I just get lucky?) rss

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Andrew Brannan
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So, after a break of about 16 years from the game, I've been slowly finding myself being pulled back in. Enough that I bought a Dark Ascension Fat Pack and an Avacyn Fat pack the other day. Now, I've heard things here and there about mythic rares, and how it's some level of rarity above "normal" rare, but in my nine boosters in the Avacyn Fat pack, I pulled not one, but two Mythic rares (both were copies of the Planeswalker Tibalt). Duplication aside, is that about right for the frequency of mythics?
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Jeff Wiles
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abrannan wrote:
So, after a break of about 16 years from the game, I've been slowly finding myself being pulled back in. Enough that I bought a Dark Ascension Fat Pack and an Avacyn Fat pack the other day. Now, I've heard things here and there about mythic rares, and how it's some level of rarity above "normal" rare, but in my nine boosters in the Avacyn Fat pack, I pulled not one, but two Mythic rares (both were copies of the Planeswalker Tibalt). Duplication aside, is that about right for the frequency of mythics?


IIRC, you should expect about one Mythic per eight packs, so two in nine is pretty good, but not outrageously lucky.
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Jonathan Ham
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The ratio's allegedly 1 in every 8 packs, but my record so far is 0 out of around 30.
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Matt Vollick
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howdyhamster wrote:
The ratio's allegedly 1 in every 8 packs, but my record so far is 0 out of around 30.


If you're buying loose packs from a box that's already been opened be aware that people are trying to "box map" every new set that comes out. The process involves opening a few boosters off the top of the box to determine where the money rares/mythics are likely to be (eg. middle stack 4 packs down, right stack 8 packs down) and then dig those out.

That being said no mythics in 30 packs happens roughly 1% of the time.
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Jonathan Ham
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Vollick1979 wrote:
howdyhamster wrote:
The ratio's allegedly 1 in every 8 packs, but my record so far is 0 out of around 30.


If you're buying loose packs from a box that's already been opened be aware that people are trying to "box map" every new set that comes out. The process involves opening a few boosters off the top of the box to determine where the money rares/mythics are likely to be (eg. middle stack 4 packs down, right stack 8 packs down) and then dig those out.

That being said no mythics in 30 packs happens roughly 1% of the time.

I usually buy the single packs that are sealed in individual blisters at big-box stores. Don't think those can be tampered with as easily, and a friend of mine regularly pulls amazing stuff from them. I know the "super value packs" or whatever are repackaged, but I'm pretty sure these are legit.
I'd have to go out of my way to the FLGS, and this way I can just pick up a couple packs with my groceries.
 
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Cyrus the Great
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1 in 8 is correct. However, there are usually many fewer Mythics than Rares in any particular set, so the odds of opening any one mythic are about half that of any one rare, not one eighth. For instance, Avacyn Restored has 53 rares and 15 mythics, so you are a little less than half as likely to open an Avacyn, Angel of Hope (a mythic) than Restoration Angel (a rare.) Also, premium mythics are slightly more common in proportion to regular mythics than premium rares are to regular rares, so if you add in foils, the probability gets closer to 1/2.
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Cyrus the Great
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Also, assuming you didn't open any mythics in the Dark Ascension fat pack, which it doesn't sound like you did, we're talking about 2 in 18 here, not 2 in 9. It is faulty statistical reasoning to consider that the 2 in 9 is what we should consider, instead of 2 in 18 (although both are far too small sample sizes to have any real meaning.)
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David Murray
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The chance of a mythic in a booster for a small set is exactly 1/8, but in a large set like AVR the chance is 15/121 (slightly less than 1/8, but very close).
 
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Renaissance Man wrote:
1 in 8 is correct. However, there are usually many fewer Mythics than Rares in any particular set, so the odds of opening any one mythic are about half that of any one rare, not one eighth. For instance, Avacyn Restored has 53 rares and 15 mythics, so you are a little less than half as likely to open an Avacyn, Angel of Hope (a mythic) than Restoration Angel (a rare.) Also, premium mythics are slightly more common in proportion to regular mythics than premium rares are to regular rares, so if you add in foils, the probability gets closer to 1/2.


Sorry for the double post, you are almost right. The chances of opening a particular nonfoil mythic (ie Avacyn) is exactly half that of opening a particular nonfoil normal rare (ie Restoration Angel), as they print them in sheets of 121 cards, on the sheet there is two of each rare and one of each mythic rare and 1 card from this sheet goes into each of 121 different boosters (this is for a large set like AVR).

I'm not completely sure how foils work, but I suspect they may be printed the same way.
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Andrew Brannan
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Renaissance Man wrote:
Also, assuming you didn't open any mythics in the Dark Ascension fat pack, which it doesn't sound like you did, we're talking about 2 in 18 here, not 2 in 9. It is faulty statistical reasoning to consider that the 2 in 9 is what we should consider, instead of 2 in 18 (although both are far too small sample sizes to have any real meaning.)


no, I got one mythic in my DA Fat Pack, as well as a foil rare.
 
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david707 wrote:
Renaissance Man wrote:
1 in 8 is correct. However, there are usually many fewer Mythics than Rares in any particular set, so the odds of opening any one mythic are about half that of any one rare, not one eighth. For instance, Avacyn Restored has 53 rares and 15 mythics, so you are a little less than half as likely to open an Avacyn, Angel of Hope (a mythic) than Restoration Angel (a rare.) Also, premium mythics are slightly more common in proportion to regular mythics than premium rares are to regular rares, so if you add in foils, the probability gets closer to 1/2.


Sorry for the double post, you are almost right. The chances of opening a particular nonfoil mythic (ie Avacyn) is exactly half that of opening a particular nonfoil normal rare (ie Restoration Angel), as they print them in sheets of 121 cards, on the sheet there is two of each rare and one of each mythic rare and 1 card from this sheet goes into each of 121 different boosters (this is for a large set like AVR).

I'm not completely sure how foils work, but I suspect they may be printed the same way.
That is exactly how they work with foils. I'm looking at a foil sheet right now.

Now, I couldn't tell you the ratio of Foil Rares to Foil Uncommons or Commons. But there is definitely 2 of each Foil Rare to 1 of each Foil Mythic.
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howdyhamster wrote:
Vollick1979 wrote:
howdyhamster wrote:
The ratio's allegedly 1 in every 8 packs, but my record so far is 0 out of around 30.


If you're buying loose packs from a box that's already been opened be aware that people are trying to "box map" every new set that comes out. The process involves opening a few boosters off the top of the box to determine where the money rares/mythics are likely to be (eg. middle stack 4 packs down, right stack 8 packs down) and then dig those out.

That being said no mythics in 30 packs happens roughly 1% of the time.

I usually buy the single packs that are sealed in individual blisters at big-box stores. Don't think those can be tampered with as easily, and a friend of mine regularly pulls amazing stuff from them. I know the "super value packs" or whatever are repackaged, but I'm pretty sure these are legit.
I'd have to go out of my way to the FLGS, and this way I can just pick up a couple packs with my groceries.
\

Probably more likely to have been tampered with, in all actuality. By the people selling them
 
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scifiantihero wrote:
howdyhamster wrote:
Vollick1979 wrote:
howdyhamster wrote:
The ratio's allegedly 1 in every 8 packs, but my record so far is 0 out of around 30.


If you're buying loose packs from a box that's already been opened be aware that people are trying to "box map" every new set that comes out. The process involves opening a few boosters off the top of the box to determine where the money rares/mythics are likely to be (eg. middle stack 4 packs down, right stack 8 packs down) and then dig those out.

That being said no mythics in 30 packs happens roughly 1% of the time.

I usually buy the single packs that are sealed in individual blisters at big-box stores. Don't think those can be tampered with as easily, and a friend of mine regularly pulls amazing stuff from them. I know the "super value packs" or whatever are repackaged, but I'm pretty sure these are legit.
I'd have to go out of my way to the FLGS, and this way I can just pick up a couple packs with my groceries.
\

Probably more likely to have been tampered with, in all actuality. By the people selling them


Yeah, I far as I know these blister packs aren't made by WotC. So who knows what has been done to those packs. The safest way to buy boosters is a sealed box from a trusted shop. If you trust the dealer not to do any box searching based on box mapping, then individual boosters are ok as well.
 
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Brian Cwikla

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Lucky you! I opened a booster box of Avacyn and got zero mythics though I did get a slight misprint on a common.
 
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Derry Salewski
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iguano wrote:
Lucky you! I opened a booster box of Avacyn and got zero mythics though I did get a slight misprint on a common.


There have been reports of AVR having weird distributions.
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Jonathan Ham
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JockiB wrote:
scifiantihero wrote:
howdyhamster wrote:
Vollick1979 wrote:
howdyhamster wrote:
The ratio's allegedly 1 in every 8 packs, but my record so far is 0 out of around 30.


If you're buying loose packs from a box that's already been opened be aware that people are trying to "box map" every new set that comes out. The process involves opening a few boosters off the top of the box to determine where the money rares/mythics are likely to be (eg. middle stack 4 packs down, right stack 8 packs down) and then dig those out.

That being said no mythics in 30 packs happens roughly 1% of the time.

I usually buy the single packs that are sealed in individual blisters at big-box stores. Don't think those can be tampered with as easily, and a friend of mine regularly pulls amazing stuff from them. I know the "super value packs" or whatever are repackaged, but I'm pretty sure these are legit.
I'd have to go out of my way to the FLGS, and this way I can just pick up a couple packs with my groceries.
\

Probably more likely to have been tampered with, in all actuality. By the people selling them


Yeah, I far as I know these blister packs aren't made by WotC. So who knows what has been done to those packs. The safest way to buy boosters is a sealed box from a trusted shop. If you trust the dealer not to do any box searching based on box mapping, then individual boosters are ok as well.

According to this document, WotC does make single-pack blisters. And like I said, my friend buys these from the same store and cracks money rares all the time. (That might explain my blight - he gets them all) It's the multi-pack blisters that are shady.

I just have terrible luck is all. Always have.
 
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Joakim Björklund
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howdyhamster wrote:
JockiB wrote:
Yeah, I far as I know these blister packs aren't made by WotC. So who knows what has been done to those packs. The safest way to buy boosters is a sealed box from a trusted shop. If you trust the dealer not to do any box searching based on box mapping, then individual boosters are ok as well.

According to this document, WotC does make single-pack blisters. And like I said, my friend buys these from the same store and cracks money rares all the time. (That might explain my blight - he gets them all) It's the multi-pack blisters that are shady.


Ok, I stand corrected. They're not very common around here, so I thought all blister packs were assembled by a third party.
 
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Well, not that I want to brag about what I pulled from my Avacyn fat pack, but...



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J. Simcoe
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Wow you pulled a cat from a booster pack! Thats cool.
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Green Angel wrote:
Wow you pulled a cat from a booster pack! Thats cool.


I guarantee that IS rare!
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I opened 3 fat packs from Avacan,

1 had 0 mythics
1 had 3 mythics
1 had 2 mythics

and of the ones my friend opened all 3 had 2 mythics

on average over the past few sets i have been getting 2 mythics from fat packs but before that (scars block) i was only getting 1 on average
 
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Tommy Occhipinti
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Be warned, though, that box mapping is real in some sets, though WOTC is, of course, always trying to make it undooable. With some sets as recent as M11, though, you can easily find videos on youtube of someone opening a booster box, checking one or two packs, then stripping out all the mythics and money cards. It is always possible these videos are fake, but I don't think I've ever heard that claimed.
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delirimouse wrote:
Be warned, though, that box mapping is real in some sets, though WOTC is, of course, always trying to make it undooable. With some sets as recent as M11, though, you can easily find videos on youtube of someone opening a booster box, checking one or two packs, then stripping out all the mythics and money cards. It is always possible these videos are fake, but I don't think I've ever heard that claimed.


It is far worse in YuGiOh but if you don't trust the shop you are going to don't buy except from sealed boxes
 
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Chrisgmay wrote:
Green Angel wrote:
Wow you pulled a cat from a booster pack! Thats cool.
I guarantee that IS rare!
I figured out a system: The ones with the cat in them always weigh a little bit more.


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fightcitymayor wrote:
Chrisgmay wrote:
Green Angel wrote:
Wow you pulled a cat from a booster pack! Thats cool.
I guarantee that IS rare!
I figured out a system: The ones with the cat in them always weigh a little bit more.




They tend to be noisier, too.
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