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1989: Dawn of Freedom» Forums » Strategy

Subject: What are your odds of winning a power struggle? rss

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Patrick Martin
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I thought I had posted these charts during the play-test period, but it appears I did not, so now is as good a time as any.

The following charts collect data from over four hundred power struggles in over 150 games played towards the end of play-testing.



This shows the win percentage for phasing (i.e. the player who played the scoring card and therefore starts with initiative) and non-phasing players depending on the final card differential. (In other words, a 8 card to 6 card power struggle is treated the same as a 20 card to 18 card power struggle by this data set). It seems fairly linear between -8 and +8. Obviously starting with the initiative is worth something, and seemingly worth more with a differential of +1 or -1... I'm still puzzling out what that might indicate.



This image gives you an idea of how significant these results may or may not be by indicating the sample size of the various card differentials as observed in the data set.

I leave you all to draw your own conclusions! whistle
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Brandon M
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“Games give you a chance to excel, and if you're playing in good company you don't even mind if you lose because you had the enjoyment of the company during the course of the game.” ― Gary Gygax
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Neato!
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Riku Riekkinen
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The way to get odd number of cards to a power struggle is that either side raises stakes (otherwise both get even number). Comparing the grapf of even columns to those of odd columns tells that raising stakes is a far greater risk for the non-phasing player than to the phasing player.

Looking at the lower picture I see that there has been more struggles with 1 card difference than with 2 or 4 card difference (the numbers from which you'll go to 1 after raising stakes). Since in the first picture the phasing players win % is about 50% (too high, if the opponent raised stakes for me), I would think that there has been too trigger happy non-phasing players in our playtests.

-----

In one instance it has been clear to me. The card that forces the opponent to discard 2 (Support Falters) is very good in the hands of the phasing player, if the opponent raises stakes; but not so good for non-phasing player, if the phasing player raises stakes. Since the player who raises stakes clears his hand, the Support Falters has a great success %, if played first by phasing player against a non-phasing player who raised stakes.

But if the non-phasing player tries the same (Support Falters) against a phasing player (who in this scenario has risen the stakes), the phasing player has already played perhaps 3 cards of the suite he wants to win with (the hard to counter cards before the non-phasing player has the initiative). So the non-phasing player might get luckily one "right" card at the cost of the initiative.
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Ted Torgerson
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So is Roundtable Talks worth it for the event? or use the Ops to get another space?
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Patrick Martin
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1989Game wrote:
So is Roundtable Talks worth it for the event? or use the Ops to get another space?


Probably depends where on the scale you are likely to be. Pure number of cards-wise Roundtable Talks changes the differential by +4 in your favor (you gain two, you opponent loses two) whereas controlling one more space (a 3 stability worker space for instance) only gives you a +2 to the differential. If you project the next power struggle to be played will see you in the (roughly) -4 to +2 differential range, Roundtable talks can really help you. But if you already anticipate having a higher or lower differential than that, you might be better off using the influence in some other country... of course, if it's late in the game and you really, really need to win power in the next (last?) scoring card, Roundtable Talks may be worth it no matter what, just to give you a better chance of a) winning b) having enough cards to raise the stakes, and c) end up with more Rallies in the Square so as to max out your dice roll modifiers after you win.

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