Recommend
3 
 Thumb up
 Hide
9 Posts

Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition)» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Die probabilities rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
R N
United States
California
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmb
I have calculated the die probabilities for some of the combinations seen in Act I Descent. Mainly I wanted to know some realistic range values, but I've calculated number of hearts and bolts as well.

These are cumulative probabilities, so if you look at the "1" row that is the probability of rolling 1 or higher.

Blue+Yellow Surge
Value Hearts Bolts Range +1 Range
0 100% 100% 100% 100%
1 83% 58% 83% 83%
2 78% 17% 83% 83%
3 53% 0% 75% 83%
4 17% 0% 61% 72%
5 0% 0% 44% 56%
6 0% 0% 28% 36%
7 0% 0% 11% 22%
8 0% 0% 3% 8%
9 0% 0% 0% 3%
10 0% 0% 0% 0%
Average 2.31 0.75 3.89 4.47

Interestingly the average value for "surge=+1 Range" is only +.58 but in practice it is really worth +1 for the shots you'd likely be taking. This sort of effect is the main reason I don't like using average values...

Blue+Red
Value Hearts Bolts Range
0 100% 100% 100%
1 83% 42% 83%
2 83% 6% 83%
3 78% 0% 67%
4 53% 0% 50%
5 17% 0% 33%
6 0% 0% 17%
7 0% 0% 0%
8 0% 0% 0%
9 0% 0% 0%
10 0% 0% 0%
Average 3.14 0.47 3.33

Here are the Blue+Red die statistics as well.
4 
 Thumb up
0.25
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Brian
United States
Oswego
Illinois
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
That's pretty interesting. I had to import it into Google Docs to make sense of it, but this is helpful data. Great number crunching.

It looks like you have a higher chance to hit at greater range with Blue + Yellow, but you will deal more damage with Blue + Red.

Surges are pretty close, with your chances of getting 2 surges only 6% with Blue + Red and 17% with Blue + Yellow.

What is your Range +1 stat? Is that getting a range on each die you roll?

Thanks for crunching these!
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Asger Kreiner-Møller
Denmark
København Ø
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
For descent 1ed I developed a code for calculating damage probabilities for specific die-combinations and surge abilities - to help the heroes with weapon-choices and give a more detailed overview of their damage output at given ranges. A week ago I modified it to 2ed and made a graphic user interface. This allows me to calculate the above (and almost all other dice combinations in the game - still need to implement re-rolls) and present it graphically. This program is however written in a not so common program (MatLab) and it would be pointless to upload it - I don't know how to make an application out of it. Enough rambling!

Here is a screenshot of 1 blue + 1 yellow


and with a surgeconversion to 1 range


From these images I would say that without the surge attacks at a range of 4 would be the longest 'safe shot' that can be made (55% chance of dealing over 2 damage). Range of 5 is more a 50/50 shot and do not count on getting good shots over this range.

With the surge to range a range of 3 is guaranteed (if you do not miss) and you have approximately a 10% hit increase at a range of 5.

and for the blue and red

- Higher damage capabilities but lower range and fewer surges. This is also kind of obvious when looking at the dice.

I might put together a pdf with all the weapons and monsters, but I don't know whether it would be worth my time. I have also modified this code for defense dice but this is in general most interesting for the attribute tests.


 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
André Oord
Netherlands
SNAKKERBUREN
Netherlands
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmb
Nanokae wrote:

I might put together a pdf with all the weapons and monsters, but I don't know whether it would be worth my time. I have also modified this code for defense dice but this is in general most interesting for the attribute tests.



Trust me, it is worth your time sauron
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
R N
United States
California
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmb
@Bilson
The +1 Range stat represents weapons that allow you to spend one surge to get +1 Range. It is trickier than it appears since the surges are tied to specific faces of the die and getting two surges still only gives you +1 Range.

@Nanokae
That is awesome.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Asger Kreiner-Møller
Denmark
København Ø
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I have now uploaded a document with statistics on all the weapons. I might start working on the monster and lieutenant - but I am not sure.

I have also been working a bit on getting the program to work on computers without the mathematics software I used and have actually succeeded. It does however require that you download and install a runtime (170Mb file) before it can run and the program is made in 1920x1080 resolution and is not really working in lower resolution - parts of the graphs disappear. Do you think I should try and upload the program?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mike Paivinen
United States
San Jose Area
California
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I'm assuming the MatLab charts you're showing are for D2E.

I'm very confused by the red/blue chart. The 2,3,4 sides on the blue dice all have two hearts. The 5,6 sides both have 1 heart. How can the 2,3,4 range lines have different outcome profiles? How can the 5,6 range lines have different profiles? According to the inputs, you didn't apply the surge faces to range or damage. So, how can the two charts for outcome and cumulative probabilities be right?


EDIT: Nevermind. I think I understand now.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mike Paivinen
United States
San Jose Area
California
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Nanokae wrote:
I have now uploaded a document with statistics on all the weapons. I might start working on the monster and lieutenant - but I am not sure.
Where?
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Asger Kreiner-Møller
Denmark
København Ø
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
It took some time before it got approved. You can find it now in the files section under statistical and analysis of all weapons. Sorry for the late reply. - i was on holidays..
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.