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Subject: I guess BJ is definitely voting for Romney now... rss

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Chad Ellis
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Ryan for VP!
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J
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Jeff
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Will the inclusion of Ryan actually turn Wisconsin into a battleground state so that BJ's vote matters?
 
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Chad Ellis
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This is a really interesting pick.

My Dad was at a dinner in the months before Obama/McCain where a political consultant was discussing the campaign. Someone asked at what point the polling was reliable enough that experts could be really confident of the outcome. He said that he thought that point had already passed -- that internal polling (which is more thorough and accurate than the public polling we hear about) likely already showed Obama with an insurmountable advantage.

His reasoning was that McCain's pick of Sarah Palin only made sense if his campaign had concluded that they couldn't win without something radically shaking things up.

Ryan is no Palin, but I wonder if the same dynamic applies. Romney's negatives have been rising steadily (this campaign certainly isn't going to signal the end of negative ads) and Obama has a very large lead currently. At the same time, Romney just can't get the Republican base excited -- any strong motivation they had up until now is anti-Obama.

Ryan offers Romney a lot. The Tea Party and other strong fiscal conservatives love him and together the ticket now offers heavyweight economic expertise in both the public and private sectors. He's young, he's very smart and he has a clear vision that Romney is presumably embracing.

But Ryan is pretty loaded for a national race that requires winning over the small number of undecided votes. His "budget" isn't actually a budget because it only details the happy things like tax cuts; it's carefully vague on where the spending cuts will come from. There's still enough raw numbers, however, for it to be clear that it calls for major cuts in popular programs. Like Romney he called for combining big tax cuts with closing loopholes but didn't specify which loopholes; that will redouble the pressure on the ticket to say what they actually plan to do if elected.

It's going to be an interesting few months!
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Boaty McBoatface
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I see the Palin effect again, appealing to the GOP right whilst turing everyone else off.
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Christopher Dearlove
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slatersteven wrote:
I see the Palin effect again, appealing to the GOP right whilst turing everyone else off.


No idea if that's true or not, Palin had the extra-special quality of being incompetent, even if you liked her politics. Don't know whether that applies here.

But from a non-US perspective it looks like in order to defeat the near-right (sic) candidate, the pretty far right candidate decided he wasn't far enough right and decided he needed someone even further right.
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Boaty McBoatface
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Dearlove wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
I see the Palin effect again, appealing to the GOP right whilst turing everyone else off.


No idea if that's true or not, Palin had the extra-special quality of being incompetent, even if you liked her politics. Don't know whether that applies here.

But from a non-US perspective it looks like in order to defeat the near-right (sic) candidate, the pretty far right candidate decided he wasn't far enough right and decided he needed someone even further right.


I suspect that Americans like 'homespun' wisdom, those who like Palins politics did not seem that put off by her stupidity (in fact they almost seem to have seen it as a virtue).
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Chad Ellis
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Dearlove wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
I see the Palin effect again, appealing to the GOP right whilst turing everyone else off.


No idea if that's true or not, Palin had the extra-special quality of being incompetent, even if you liked her politics. Don't know whether that applies here.


It does, but to a much lower extent. Ryan has no foreign policy experience and has never run a large organization so there are legitimate grounds for questioning whether he's ready to be President. Palin's problem had less to do with resume, however, and more to do with being an intellectual lightweight with an unfortunate tendency to blow up during interviews. Ryan hasn't been tested at this level, but from what I've seen of him I think he'll be orders of magnitude better than Palin on that front.
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Andy Andersen
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I'm curious as to what foreign policy experience and corporate experience our current Prez and VP have.

The answer is zero. And it shows.
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Brian
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I think this may invigorate the left base a bit though and might put off independents. Maybe not as much as the Palin pick in 2008, but this election seems like it could be tighter so it might have a swinging effect. Romney really wants to win that Tea Party though and motivate them to go out and vote, and this will probably do that quite a bit.

Interesting move indeed.
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Boaty McBoatface
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Orangemoose wrote:
I'm curious as to what foreign policy experience and corporate experience our current Prez and VP have.

The answer is zero. And it shows.


I think they have plenty of foreign policy experience, they been doing it since 2009.
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Andy Andersen
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And not particularly well at that either.
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Brian
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Orangemoose wrote:
I'm curious as to what foreign policy experience and corporate experience our current Prez and VP have.

The answer is zero. And it shows.


I think it will matter less what experience the republican vp has this time around. Last election, it was really only a big deal because the republican attack strategy was inexperience. And they invalidated that a bit by going with Palin as VP. Even that might of been fine, but like Chad said, she had a habit of messing up royally in interviews.

This year, I don't think foriegn experience is going to be anywhere near Romney's main attack line. Economy and government spending is a much better target and Ryan hits at least one of those targets pretty well.

Quick question in case some one knows: What are Ryan's thoughts on the whole sequestration thing?
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Boaty McBoatface
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Orangemoose wrote:
And not particularly well at that either.


Perhaps but at least Obama seems to know not to insult his hosts during foreign visits.
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Chad Ellis
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Orangemoose wrote:
I'm curious as to what foreign policy experience and corporate experience our current Prez and VP have.

The answer is zero. And it shows.


Obama had none, and that was a fair criticism. Whatever you think of Biden, however, the idea that he has no foreign policy experience is absurd.
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Boaty McBoatface
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bjlillo wrote:
Paul Ryan is a moderate. He talks a good conservative game, but his voting record shows otherwise.


It is? Such as supproting District of Columbia Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act or opposing Requires Public Disclosure of Bonuses and Golden Parachute Arrangements, yes very moderate.
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Ben Vincent
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
Ryan has no foreign policy experience and has never run a large organization so there are legitimate grounds for questioning whether he's ready to be President.


Seriously?

Didn't we collectively decide in 2008 that this wasn't important anymore?
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Chad Ellis
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bjlillo wrote:
Paul Ryan is a moderate. He talks a good conservative game, but his voting record shows otherwise.


Interesting. I haven't looked at his voting record yet. What non-conservative votes do you have in mind? (The obvious ones would be things like TARP and Medicare-D where he supported Bush.)
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Chad Ellis
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SabreRedleg wrote:
Chad_Ellis wrote:
Ryan has no foreign policy experience and has never run a large organization so there are legitimate grounds for questioning whether he's ready to be President.


Seriously?

Didn't we collectively decide in 2008 that this wasn't important anymore?


No. We decided that it wasn't as important as other factors. Even among Obama supporters like myself it was cause for concern.
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serdudds wrote:
What are Ryan's thoughts on the whole sequestration thing?


You mean Rafalca?
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William Boykin
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Personally, I think its insane.

Not that I think that Ryan is a bad guy, or even close to Sarah Palin. He might have better conservative bona fides than Romney, just Palin excited the conservative base in 2008, but Ryan is just a lot more.....substantive...than Palin ever was. Being an immense policy wonk for one truly helps.

If we're seeing 2008 redux (Nominating a 'Moderate' for President, then a Conservative for VP), I can only conclude that the GOP vetting process has gone truly insane.

1). Romney, unlike McCain, is running against his own record. I was arguing this very point with a friend of mine who is no fan of McCain, who argued that McCain would have 'rolled' to the Democrats on every point, like an amnesty for illegal immigrants. I rejoindered with taking pointing out that his comparision of McCain's position on regularizing immigration issues as 'amnesty' en passante, and merely pointed out that NO ONE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT MCCAIN SUPPORTED A POSITION ON IMMIGRATION that looked anything like what the Tea Party wants. Like it or not, you wouldn't be surprised by his position.

Sure, McCain got a mite....flexible...on his record of the past. But Romney has been actively running AGAINST his own governmental record- especially on the topic du jour, Obamacare/Romneycare. Being so actively hostile against his own record has conservatives wary that he doesn't mean it when he says that 'Now he's one of them', and has moderate/independents not sure that this move to the Right is just a shame or what. When a super Catholic friend of mine is refusing to vote for Romney, due to his flip flopping on abortion, at a time when the Obama administration has gone out of its WAY to piss all over conservative Catholics- well, that's par for this electoral course it seems. Romney just doesn't have the ROOM to 'swing Right in the Primary, then Center in the General'- no one, on EITHER side, really believes it.

2). So, Romney is 'doubling down' on the Right as it were with this pick of Ryan. This might work. As I said, Ryan is a substantive guy. But this is going to be an UGLY campaign. UGLY. Think its ugly already- guys and gals, its going to get a lot worse. Obama's team thinks that their attacks on Romney are working, with his negative favorables still higher than his unfavorables. Combine that with a possible 3rd party spoiler in Virginia still on the ballot and polling 9-11%, and the electoral math for Romney starts looking GRIM.

Ryan, I think, would have been a great choice if Romney was going to actually stake out some issues- especially on the debt and on fiscal policy- and then run on their combined records with solid policy positions. Its what Ryan is known for, and its what a lot of the base wants to hear- real solutions on how to stem the rising debt tide without sending the economy into another recession. But I don't think that that is what Romney is going to really do, other than some speeches at the Convention. He's going to go swinging after Obama, and swing harder than ever, making this even more of a mudslinging contest. He has to- this is going escalate quickly, and both sides are going to start reaching for thermonuclear invective once the conventions are over. And on that level, I don't think Ryan is a good pick- if Romney was going nuclear, he needs a bomb thrower (like Gingrich), and not a policy wonk.

3). And finally, we have the basic situation where there is no real center of Moderates/Independents, faced with a GOP ticket that looks like McCain/Palin on roids. Many in the base will love Ryan, and flock to him, but vast numbers of religious and other social conservatives will remain skeptical, unsure that Romney is 'their guy'. And Romney doesn't have CLOSE to the ability to 'gain the Center' that McCain was suppossed to have. So we see a repeat, in essence, of the same strategy as last time- elect a 'Moderate', put a conservative VP beside them, hope for the best. Despite the fact that the electoral conditions between 2008 and 2012 are so radically different, the GOP is trying to do the same type of dog and pony show.

Doing the same thing, over and over again, and expecting that 'THIS TIME, IT WILL WORK', is insane.

Darilian
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Chad Ellis
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The more I think about it, the more I think the logic is roughly as follows:

1. The original plan of being vague and having the election be purely a referendum on Obama was a reasonable (if uninspiring) strategy but now looks like a sure loser.

2. In order to make this a contest, Romney needs two things: to shift the debate back to the economy and to have a clear and credible message about what he wants to do. That may not be sufficient, but it's necessary.

3. Ryan clearly helps him with the latter point -- Ryan has a plan and a message, and has credibility with the base so even if they don't trust Romney they may trust the ticket. More importantly, Ryan also helps with the former -- the attacks on Ryan will be attacks about policy and specifically fiscal/economic policy.

That said, I think Obama now looks like a huge favorite to win re-election. Romney and Ryan have a huge sales job to convince middle America that massive entitlement cuts are needed. The elderly are potentially in play and Obama has consistently won when the debate is about cutting marginal rates on the wealthiest Americans. I think my original reaction is probably correct -- Ryan was picked because Romney's internal polling showed that he was almost certain to lose unless he shook up the election. So he chose a bad matchup rather than one that had already lost.
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William Boykin
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Well, Romney should have figured this out.

Obama is a MUCH better candidate than he is President. And it shows.

His administration was never this 'on message' during the Health Care debates.

Darilian
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J
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
I think Obama now looks like a huge favorite to win re-election.

Intrade only gives him 58.4%. How many shares are you buying?
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Boaty McBoatface
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jarredscott78 wrote:
Chad_Ellis wrote:
I think Obama now looks like a huge favorite to win re-election.

Intrade only gives him 58.4%. How many shares are you buying?


And Romeny 20 points less.
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