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Subject: War on Santa Paravia rss

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Bill Davies
United States
Arizona
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Can anyone tell me when it would ever be wise to attack Santa Paravia over the Secret Amorous Liaison?

The only thing I can think of is if your army is so huge you will still win on a 2, 3, or 4 and you don't mind some dying.

 
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Bjørnar Løseth
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Bergen
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In some games it's quite easy to get an army big enough for such an attack. Quite a viable strategy in my book. Depends on what your opponents do, though.
 
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Tom Wham
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Lake Geneva
Wisconsin
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You are quite right. I always go for Fiumaccio. The Queen is a much better option for 1 point. It is too late now to take it back. The game is going out of print.
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Lacombe
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Secret Amorous Liaison seems too cheap anyway. How if you costed it? Say, a gold or a food? (Either a pretty trinket or a nice meal to woo the queen.)
 
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Hanno Girke
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Schwabenheim an der Selz
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NateStraight wrote:
Secret Amorous Liaison seems too cheap anyway. How if you costed it? Say, a gold or a food? (Either a pretty trinket or a nice meal to woo the queen.)


That's not Feudal self esteem!.
 
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Lacombe
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Well that's cute and all, but if the amorous liaison is overpowered compared to the other choices (and other threads also indicate wars and sabotage are very infrequently chosen), doesn't it seem some adjustment is in order?
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Lacombe
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Seems likely that letting knights add their +1 VP to all wars would help, too.

I ran some quick probabilities right now, and your expected VP gain for a war against Paravia (2d8 + Army = >14) is only higher than the expected VP gain from the Secret Amorous Liaison if you have an army with 8 or more strength.

That doesn't take into account the fact that war will likely reduce that strength by half.

Fiumaccio is not much better. You have to have 12 strength before the odds are even in your favor. You have to have 13 strength before it's a better choice than the secret amorous liaison. And you have to have 14 strength before it's a better choice than just doing Paravia.

[Note: The calculation for Fiumaccio does not--yet--take into account the fact you might get a point in the general war if you lose the foreign war]
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Lacombe
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Quote:
[Note: The calculation for Fiumaccio does not--yet--take into account the fact you might get a point in the general war if you lose the foreign war]


Losing the war against Fiumaccio and creating a general war actually is a net boon when you have strength 3 or more (your odds of both having enough strength to avoid the VP loss and the war succeeding to grant you the VP gain for participating are in your favor), but that doesn't mean that the overall effect is net positive.

When accounting for the possible outcomes of the general war triggered by a Fiumaccio loss, all of the requisite strengths above get a -1 shift. You need 11 strength before the overall expected outcome is positive, 12 strength before Fiumaccio is a better choice than a Liaison, and 13 strength before it's a better choice than Paravia.

[Note: This calculation does not--yet--take into account the fact that you probably have at least one knight if you attempted Fiumaccio at all, so probably will get +1 VP if you fail Fiumaccio but then succeed in the general war. This will shift the requisite strength levels back a bit more, probably just another -1 I'd guess.]
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Lacombe
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NateStraight wrote:
[Note: This calculation does not--yet--take into account the fact that you probably have at least one knight if you attempted Fiumaccio at all, so probably will get +1 VP if you fail Fiumaccio but then succeed in the general war. This will shift the requisite strength levels back a bit more, probably just another -1 I'd guess.]


Yes. Just so. Assuming that over 6 or 7 strength, you're going to have to have a Knight almost by default [and be qualified for the +1 VP if the general war succeeds when Fiumaccio fails], you need 11 overall strength for Fiumaccio not to be a losing prospect, 12 strength for it to be better than the Liaison, and 13 strength for it to be also better than Paravia.
 
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Lacombe
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Sabotage, by the way, beyond the basic gold cost is always a losing proposition. You have only a 46% chance of success [since ties go to the defender], so your expected VP outcome is -0.54. You'd only choose this when the associated benefit [to you] of being able to destroy an opponent's tile if you succeed is at least 1.18 VP. You'd only choose it over a Liaison when that associated gain to you of pestering the opponent was at least 2.21 VP. I can't imagine there are all that many tiles an opponent could have whose destruction would be worth as much to you as [were it possible] an instant VP gain of 2.21... let alone when it will cost you 4.5 gold on average to even attempt the destruction.
 
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Bruce Murphy
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Healing or dice modifiers shift the death probabilities.

B>
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Lacombe
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thepackrat wrote:
Healing or dice modifiers shift the death probabilities.

B>


They shift all probabilities however, and equally for all possible Baron actions and for all possible target opponents. Healing is a special case since it doesn't help with Liaisons at all, but it doesn't affect the expected VP values... only the associated loss. For rerolls [what modifiers by the way?], it's still categorically better to try the Liaison since your reroll faces the same probability as the first rolls.
 
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Lacombe
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Some calculations relative to Baron actions
 
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Lacombe
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NateStraight wrote:
[what modifiers by the way?]


Oh, right. The expansion.
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