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Subject: Never Tell Me The Odds - Summoner Wars Math Made Easy rss

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Noble Knave
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First off, big thanks to Colby for such a great game and to Jexik for his great related article.

I've found that knowing the percentages rather than the fractions is really useful to know, and by rounding them to easier to remember numbers I can always know what my odds are of raining pain down with a particular attack, or spectacularly whiffing.

So for all of those Summoner Wars fans who want a quick, easy-to-remember mnemonic for what the various probabilities are for common attack values, here we go:


1 AV:
1 Damage - 67%
0 Damage - 33%

(Easy enough.)


2 AV:
2 Damage - 44%
1 Damage - 44%
0 Damage - 11%

(It's a coin flip whether you do 1 wound or 2, but there's a ~10% chance of whiffing.)


3 AV:
3 Damage - 30%
2 Damage - 44%
1 Damage - 22%
0 Damage - 4%

(At 74% chance to do 2 or 3 damage, this one hurts, but flubs can and do occur.)


4 AV:
4 Damage - 20%
3 Damage - 40%
2 Damage - 30%
1 Damage - 10%
0 Damage - 1%

(Note these add to 101% because all of the percentages for 1-4 damage are slightly rounded up, and 0 damage carries a 1/81 chance.)


5 AV:
5 Damage - 13%
4 Damage - 33%
3 Damage - 33%
2 Damage - 16%
1 Damage - 4%
0 Damage - 0.4%

(I don't bother to remember this, since it's pretty rare to have 5 AV unless you're playing GD and have a Heroic Feat or two handy.)


So there you have it. Go forth and crush things, and never tell me the odds!
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Brock Poulsen
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Chance of doing exactly one wound less than is necessary for my plans to succeed: virtually 100% Holy crap I love this game so much.
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Chris Berger
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Nice post. I wanted to add to it a little bit... While those exact percentages are not really that hard to calculate or remember, sometimes it's hard to translate on the fly to what that really means to me in the decision making process. I usually think of an even rougher breakdown of the odds for at least a first pass at eliminating choices... Basically, I break the odds down to: not likely, coin flip, and very likely.

1 AV:
coin flip to kill a 1 life unit (or wound a stronger unit)

2 AV:
very likely to kill a 1 life unit
coin flip to kill a 2 life unit (very likely to wound)

3 AV:
very likely to kill a 1 or 2 life unit
unlikely to kill a 3 life unit

4 AV:
very likely to kill a 1 or 2 life unit (overkill vs. 1 life)
coin flip to kill a 3 life unit
unlikely to kill a 4 life unit

5 AV:
very likely to kill a 1-3 life unit (overkill vs. 1 life)
coin flip to kill a 4 life
nearly impossible to kill a 5 life

Yes, that coin flip for a 2 AV killing a 2 life is much worse coin flip than a 1 AV killing a 1 life, and when it comes down to two coin flips that are equally helpful to my position, I might remember the real odds and go from there. And yes, that "very likely" for a 3 AV to kill a 2 life unit is awfully close to the "coin flip" for a 1 AV to kill a 1 life. But there have to be breakpoints somewhere, and even 67% is decent odds, I still prefer to be a little pessimistic.

But basically, "very likely" is something I can more or less count on. Try not to put myself in a position where a "very likely" failing will completely screw me, but taking risks for a "very likely" is generally OK. "unlikely" means don't even try it if it puts me in a bad position - or only try it if it doesn't cost anything or I have a backup plan. "coin flip" means don't count on it, try to have a contingency plan, but generally worth risking or spending moves to set up.
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Noble Knave
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Figured I'd do a quick add-on for the Tundra Orcs that I put on
solidsteve's probability calculator.


Rukar (3AV with Power Strike - 5+ counts as 2 hits)

0 : 1/27 ~ 3.7%
1 : 3/27 ~ 11%
2 : 6/27 ~ 22%
3 : 7/27 ~ 26%
4 : 6/27 ~ 22%
5 : 3/27 ~ 11%
6 : 1/27 ~ 3.7%


Note that it's completely symmetric! Rukar is a beast.


Blagog (5 AV with Reckless - hits on 4+)

0 : 1/32 ~ 3%
1 : 5/32 ~ 16%
2 : 10/32 ~ 31%
3 : 10/32 ~ 31%
4 : 5/32 ~ 16%
5 : 1/32 ~ 3%


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