Recommend
 
 Thumb up
 Hide
12 Posts

Twilight Struggle» Forums » General

Subject: Less-random dice rolls: Stats geeks, help me out. rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Dan Moore
United States
San Francisco
California
flag msg tools
mbmb
For me,many dice-dependant games, like TS, fall down on the 1 of 6 chances they enforce. I found another option while reading the rules of (a game I cannot now remember the name of).

Roll four dice, in pairs: subtract of each pair the highest versus lowest numbers. Do the same again for the resulting numbers.

Distribution changes radically. The odds of getting a number higher than 3 is approximately 1 in 6; getting a 5 approaches 1 in 100. 1 is the leader at about 2.5 to 1; 0 and 2 are about 1 in 3. Stats geeks, here is where I need your help, to refine this.

Seems like a better level of randomicity to me.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Sam Carroll
United States
Urbana
Illinois
flag msg tools
Soli Deo Gloria!
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
While this approach would work for coups and realignments, you'd have to change the technique for war cards (Arab-Israeli War et al) and the Space Race. The game you're thinking of might be Struggle of Empires; I think I remember there being a subtraction roll in its combat system.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Michael Kiefte
Canada
Dartmouth
Nova Scotia
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
catmando wrote:

Seems like a better level of randomicity to me.


Depends on what you're trying to achieve. Although games with dice seem to be reduced to chance, it's never as bad as you perceive. How many times are dice rolled in a game of TS? What is the average roll? What is the standard error of the mean across a single game? If you change any of those numbers, you will end up with a very different game.

I have in my head the probabilities of success for coups and realignments. Whenever I make a decision to perform either of those actions, I am constantly referring to those numbers. A coup on a 1-stability country is always far more efficient than placing influence. A coup on a 5-stability country never is. Realignments on countries surrounded by my control is always more efficient, etc.

If you change the distribution of results, you are radically going to change the very game itself. If that's what you want to do, then go ahead. But you're not really improving the game by reducing the element of luck.
6 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Jason Sample
United States
Pelham
New York
flag msg tools
badge
Bright, brilliant colors are to be seen everywhere, the stones and pigments undimmed by the passage of decades. The floor of the corridor is a colorful mosaic of stone, with a distinct, winding path of red tiles about 2' wide.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
0= 19.7%
1= 34%
2= 23.4%
3= 14.2%
4= 6.8%
5= 1.9%

I am not sure if this decreases randomicity (Zat a word, BTW?), but it DOES result in an interesting probability distribution. This model assumes that you do not get to pick which dice will be subtracted from which. If the user chooses, now THAT would be different.

Peace,
Jason
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Kristian Thy
Denmark
Taastrup
flag msg tools
Together, we are the United Nations
badge
Gunulfr ok Øgotr ok Aslakr ok Rolfr resþu sten þænsi æftir Ful, felaga sin, ær warþ ... døþr, þa kunungar barþusk.
Avatar
mb
queequeg wrote:
randomicity (Zat a word, BTW?)


I believe it's normally known as randomness.
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Adam Cirone
United States
Mansfield
Ohio
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I will just chime in quick to note that dice-variability in Twilight Struggle is usually not a major factor in either winning the game or making it fun to play. If a player is frustrated by "unlucky" dice rolls on his or her coups, then that player does not fully understand how coups can be used in the game.

When you attempt a coup, you should be thinking about several factors:

1. Which country do I need to control?
2. At which level do I want DEFCON?
3. How am I going to gain my Req Mil Ops this turn?
4. Which of my countries are vulnerable and how can I protect them?

Of those four considerations, only the first relies on a good dice roll. All four are important at various times during the game, and good play means to use each coup to make the most impact, so even if you roll poorly, you still gain benefits from considerations 2 through 4.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Dan Moore
United States
San Francisco
California
flag msg tools
mbmb
queequeg wrote:
0= 19.7%
1= 34%
2= 23.4%
3= 14.2%
4= 6.8%
5= 1.9%

I am not sure if this decreases randomicity (Zat a word, BTW?), but it DOES result in an interesting probability distribution. This model assumes that you do not get to pick which dice will be subtracted from which. If the user chooses, now THAT would be different.

Peace,
Jason


It's a perfectly crumulent word.

If you were going head to head, as in a realignment, you could use Red vs Blue dice. Otherwise, yes, just derive A number.

Thanks for the distribution! and nice handle, Double Q.

Thanks for all the feedback.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Conor Hickey
Ireland
Dublin
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Doing this would mean having to adjust War cards, and the stability numbers of many countries as otherwise coups would have virtually no effect.

If you adjust stability numbers then you are more or less back where you started.

Another consideration is what the coup die roll represents - money and weapons supplied to insurgents in a country. They could fail, they could barely succeed, they could win big - you would have no way of knowing in advance how well they were going to do.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Providence
Rhode Island
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
queequeg wrote:
0= 19.7%
1= 34%
2= 23.4%
3= 14.2%
4= 6.8%
5= 1.9%

I am not sure if this decreases randomicity (Zat a word, BTW?), but it DOES result in an interesting probability distribution. This model assumes that you do not get to pick which dice will be subtracted from which. If the user chooses, now THAT would be different.

Peace,
Jason


Ha. I noticed your username from another thread. I am suffering through reading Moby Dick at the moment...
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Jason Sample
United States
Pelham
New York
flag msg tools
badge
Bright, brilliant colors are to be seen everywhere, the stones and pigments undimmed by the passage of decades. The floor of the corridor is a colorful mosaic of stone, with a distinct, winding path of red tiles about 2' wide.
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Sweet! Definitely one of my favorites. Call me Ishmael.

What do you think of the Boston-LA megadeal, BTW?

Enjoy,
J
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Providence
Rhode Island
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
A sense of relief? I wish they sent Pedroia instead of Crawford, to be honest. But they were dumping salary and bad contracts mostly (Thanks Theo) so it made sense.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Dan Moore
United States
San Francisco
California
flag msg tools
mbmb
markgravitygood wrote:
queequeg wrote:
0= 19.7%
1= 34%
2= 23.4%
3= 14.2%
4= 6.8%
5= 1.9%

I am not sure if this decreases randomicity (Zat a word, BTW?), but it DOES result in an interesting probability distribution. This model assumes that you do not get to pick which dice will be subtracted from which. If the user chooses, now THAT would be different.

Peace,
Jason


Ha. I noticed your username from another thread. I am suffering through reading Moby Dick at the moment...


Suffering!

M.D. is brilliant.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.