Recommend
3 
 Thumb up
 Hide
16 Posts

Amun-Re» Forums » General

Subject: Bidding and sacrifice statistics from Spielbyweb.com rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
Robert Birks
Australia
Trafalgar
Victoria
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
At www.spielbyweb.com you can play Amun Re online using email notification when your turn is due. There are somewhere around 40 games in progress at the moment, most of which are still in the relatively early stages of the game.

Being the geek that I am, I thought it would be interesting to see what people are actually bidding for provinces, and how much they are sacrificing. Here are the stats for the games in progress at the moment:

Round 1 average bidding. n=35 games
Thebes 4.9
Memphis 4.9
Abu 3.6
Sawu 2.9
Bernike 2.4
Avaris 2.3
Baharya 2.2
Edfu 1.9
Abydos 1.8
Dahkla 1.8
Kharga 1.7
Armarna 1.6
Damanhur 1.4
Buto 0.7
Mendes 0.6


The farming provinces are very unpopular, while the two free power cards / bricks are very tempting. Personally, I think that the camel provinces are being undervalued.

Round 2 bidding 21 games

Memphis 5.3
Thebes 4.1
Abu 4.0
Abydos 3.8
Bernike 3.6
Dahkla 3.6
Baharya 3.3
Damanhur 2.8
Avaris 2.0
Kharga 1.8
Sawu 1.7
Edfu 1.6
Armarna 1.2
Mendes 1.2
Buto 1.1

Surprisingly little change in the order, although abydos is much more popular now... buy why?

Not enough games have bid on round 3 to make it worthwhile analysing.


How about the sacrifice levels?

The average temple position after round 1 is 1.7, with just 2 of 33 reaching the camel killing level of 3. In one of those, one player bought Dakhla, then sacrificed 8 to get the temple that high, a rather puzzling strategy.

The average temple position after Round 2 is 1.6, with just 1 out of 16 games reaching the camel killing 3.

In Round 3, only 6 games had sacrificed so far, for an average of 2.3.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Jim Cote
United States
Maine
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Are these all 5-player games? It would make quite a difference to the value of provinces with 3 or 4 players.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Jim Cote
United States
Maine
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Also, if there are fewer players, the offering can potentially be much lower, making the values of the temple provinces increase.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert Birks
Australia
Trafalgar
Victoria
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
Sorry, I forgot to mention that I had only included 5 player games, and only those that had started after the end of the beta testing phase of the game.cool

I'll follow the numbers as I get a chance to for a while to see what happens. The other thing to remember is that there are probably a lot of players new to Amun Re playing these games, so their strategy may improve with repeated plays, affecting these numbers.

However, it's still an interesting data collection.


 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Dave Eisen
United States
Menlo Park
CA
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmb
If the results here are true and reflect good play (and they do reflect
the general approach of games I've been in), that is disappointing. The game would be improved if going strong farmer were more frequently correct.

I note also that the relative values of the provinces change in rounds 4-6 from 1-3 even apart from the stones and pyramids still around. Cards are clearly worse less later in the game and it's possible valuations change in other, less obvious, ways.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert Birks
Australia
Trafalgar
Victoria
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
I'm not sure that it is necessarily disappointing. The bidding mechanism does balance this out quite considerably.

While the farming provinces are perhaps less valuable, if other players are bidding 3 and 6 then you have a good cash advantage to work with. The other aspect is that a farming province forces you into having more flexibility with the sacrifice. If you have caravan or farmer free provinces then it can be expensive to do anything other than steal 3 gold, and therefore risky to try and get the bonus goods from sacrificing money.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mikael Sheikh
United States
Brooklyn
New York
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Wow, this is pretty geeky. I like it!

Are you tallying this by hand, or "screen-scraping" the game logs? If you want, I can provide you with the raw data every now and then.

Two thoughts:

1) what power cards someone is holding can have an effect on bidding (particularly in rounds 5 and 6), so you really do need more data to work with

2) you could weight the bids by how well a player did in the game, since data gained from players who fared poorly isn't very helpful
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mikael Sheikh
United States
Brooklyn
New York
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Another fun thing to do is to track the flow of power cards through a game (I put this together to help track down a bug involving power cards appearing/disappearing magically):

http://www.spielbyweb.com/misc/amun_re_powercard.html
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert Birks
Australia
Trafalgar
Victoria
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
milksheikh wrote:
Wow, this is pretty geeky. I like it!

Are you tallying this by hand, or "screen-scraping" the game logs? If you want, I can provide you with the raw data every now and then.


I've been copying and pasting into a spreadsheet and working from there. I did it all in a couple of hours when I was bored one day . I haven't bothered updating the bidding, it's too time consuming, but I have been manually tracking sacrifice levels. I'd happily work with raw data, I'll send you a PM to see what we can organise.

Quote:


Two thoughts:

1) what power cards someone is holding can have an effect on bidding (particularly in rounds 5 and 6), so you really do need more data to work with

2) you could weight the bids by how well a player did in the game, since data gained from players who fared poorly isn't very helpful


1) I've rapidly come to that conclusion; coming up with province evaluations for any round other than round 1 is very limited in value. Round's 4-6 are totally different due to pyramids. Even round's 2 and 3 are greatly affected by other factors. One major factor in levels of bidding in subsequent rounds is the level of cash in the game, which of course is mostly affected by the temple. It's better to have a framework to work with to evaluate a province's worth to you in any given round.

2) There are many factors that influence how well you go. You can go poorly despite logical play, just by having a bad run with power cards, or other players sacrifice too high / too low for your provinces. We'd probably need a lot more data to make a useful comparison between people who did well to those who didn't.


 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Aventura
Florida
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I've always pondered whether the sacrifice part of the game was "balanced", which is to say whether all other things equal (averaging all possible province draws throughout the 3 phases of an epoch) going for farmers and stealing are roughly as profitable as each other.

I have certainly been in games where the sacrifice never got above 4-5, and in other games where it went above 23 more than once, so it SEEMS like all situations are plausible... I do agree that there is a tendency downwards to the extent that it is definitely more likely that it will end up below 3 than that it will pass 12 (also depends on the round and the provinces that came out), but the advantage of getting 2 or 3 extra items is considerable, which makes bidding instead of stealing potentially quite profitable! I think players just need to take advantage of this more. I think a game where someone who bids 5 consistently gets 3 items most of the time is running away with a steal...
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Joe Gola
United States
Redding
Connecticut
flag msg tools
badge
and everything under the sun is in tune
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
cnd_77 wrote:
Someone mentioned somewhere, and I agree, that the worst bid on the sacrifice is 1 gold.

A sacrifice of 1 is often the equivalent of stealing three gold. Say you've bought three building blocks on your turn. To buy a fourth would cost you an additional four gold, three of which you would make back by stealing from the sacrifice, leaving you net -1. To get the block via a sacrifice of 1 would cost you one gold, leaving you at net -1. Same thing, except it's the better choice if you're not dealing in camels. Moreover, there is a chance that you might come in first or second and get more than one item (if there are few people sacrificing or others have also sacrificed one and you're closer to start player).
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Aventura
Florida
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
I just played the first round of a game (on spielbyweb) where a two people who had 0 and 1 farmers sacrificed 4 and 3, respectively. The reason they probably did so was because the EXPECTATION was that no one would bid much, since there was one camel province, dahkla (12 bucks up front, no farmer spaces), and berenike (8 bucks per round, no farmer spaces) in play, so they thought they might get 3 items very cheaply.

This attests to the self-balancing mechanism inherent in the sacrifice, that the worth of the rewards will usually drive the sacrifice up, sometimes as in this case when there is overtly NOT an incentive to raise the sacrifice level.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert Birks
Australia
Trafalgar
Victoria
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
After a few more plays, I tend to sacrifice more often than I used to initially, but one key factor in determining my sacrifice, other than whether I have farmers or camels, is my cash levels. I dont like starting a new round with little money, say less than 10 - you are too limited in your options.

Conversely, any time you control a camel province, sacrificing increases the risk of losing your camel income, so the items you receive are very expensive indeed.

It's a lot different in the second half of the game, where money is less important. However, it seems to be still uncommon for sacrifices to reach high levels, as people are now jealously guarding their gold to spend on stuff they have control over.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Asmodeus
Australia
flag msg tools
Kanga wrote:


Round 2 bidding 21 games

...

Surprisingly little change in the order, although abydos is much more popular now... buy why?




my guess is that people draw a Power Card Bonus and then need the power cards that Abydos allows.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Seth
Netherlands
Eindhoven
Noord Brabant
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Hi,

Great analysis and this is one situation where I would like to see the Modus (the number with the most bidding) or Median (the middle number of a range of numbers from low to high (in this case that would be nr 18. (sorry, don't know the english word for them but perhaps my discription helps) instead of the Average. Dou you happen to have those for these 35 games? There are not a lot of instances where Modus or Median have come in handy but with the bidding going from 1 to 3 to 6 etc. it tells (me) a lot!

Cheers,

Seth
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Robert Birks
Australia
Trafalgar
Victoria
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
wow a reply 6 years after the original posting..

I didn't end up keeping track for much longer, although I played until Amun Re disappeared in 2010. From my observations, the style of play changed markedly over time. Players learned to use the farming provinces much more effectively. However the R1 bids weren't too far from the above in most games.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.