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Subject: Is Romney the Kerry of 2012? rss

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Josh
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I am seeing a lot of parallels here. I'm open to being enlightened otherwise, but let me lay it out. I am not talking policy mirrors here, I am talking campaigns. In both situations you had a president teetering around 50% popularity, not the best. In Bush's case his popularity during the 2004 election was the highest it would be during his second term, it only went down, and boy did it go down. So for both 'challengers' you have a sitting president who is mostly balancing precariously on a pole than sitting comfortably. Both challengers SEEM to really just have to run a solid campaign to win. Kerry flubbed it, and Romney seems to be, flubbing it.

There are certain taboo subjects that hindered both candidates I think. Despite the debacle of our role in Afghanistan and to a much greater extent, Iraq, There was no way to challenge Bush on these policies without appearing unpatriotic. Considering Bush hadn't done much else of note, that meant there wasn't a whole lot of ground for Kerry to fight on. The economy was still in the midst of the soon to explode bubble, and trying to talk about how and why this was a bad thing was not something I think Kerry was equipped to do.

Romney's biggest line of attack on Obama seems to peter out as well. He's flubbed his credibility to all but the hardest of flag-waving hawks on foreign policy all on his own, which was a big weakness in his campaign, but even on the economy he's hindered. He can talk in generalities and how it's 'worse off than before' just fine, but when it comes down to specifics things get embarrassing. They get embarrassing because it is very much true that the policies that got us in this whole were put into place and given time to ferment for years before Obama came into office, years with a Republican president at the helm who was too busy with wars to pay attention(or just didn't care) that's... awkward. They also get embarrassing because while he can talk generalities on the slow pace of the recovery when he gets into specifics the obstruction his own party had to utilize to get things to this point comes into question. The filibusters, the 'no taxes evah' pledges, the fights on the debt ceiling, they all become fair game and the sheer political circus of it all is just as likely to disgust voters away from him as draw them closer.

None of this will upset his base, but neither side has a strong enough base to win these days. So like in 2004 the independents are the key, but when you're stuck without a strong inclusive message, without a (I hate this word)pro-active campaign, you become so much political white noise and the inertia of the incumbent eventually wins out.

Thoughts?
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Boaty McBoatface
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Whist all of this may be true there are two major differences.

One, Kerrys war record was attacked by a party whose candidate was a draft dodger, this time it's harder for the Demotwats to attack Romeny in this way (in the sense of hypocritical double standards).
Two, I saw comments such as “I must vote for bush he is our commander in chief in time of war”, I think now the war is so unpopular that Obama will not benefit form this idiotic mentality. This linked to the above means that there is no “my patriotism is bigger then your patriotism” card to play. All Romney can do is to say that he (meaning not him) will stay in unpopular wars longer (hardly a vote winner).

These mean that I am not really sure there are that many parreles between Kerry and Romney.
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Born To Lose, Live To Win
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I don't think Romney is as intellectual as Kerry. Kerry talked people into glazed over inattention and lacked charisma because of it. People don't click with Romney for different reasons. He has nothing in common with regular people and does nothing to change that image every time he opens his mouth. It would help if he was likable. He has the double-whammy of coming off as the wall-street guy that lots of people blame for the economy and being that office goober that no one wants to get stuck in a conversation with.

I'd like to think that people see beyond these these less important "personality" based evaluations. If they did, Kerry would probably have been president or we wouldn't have voted for one of the two parties to begin with.
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fightcitymayor
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"This is a really weird game, and you’ll find that most people will not want to play this."
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Did you really just say "goober?"
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Born To Lose, Live To Win
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fightcitymayor wrote:
Did you really just say "goober?"


If it got my point across it was an effective figure of speech. I think that characterizing Romney as a goober is very accurate.
 
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David Hoffman
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I think Kerry would take exception to being compared to Romney. Kerry's biggest mistake was not going on the attack, not pushing back when Rove and the team started that swiftboat nonsense. Kerry wasn't a bad candidate, per se, he just wasn't playing the same game the GOP was playing that year.

Romney, conversely, is a terrible candidate. He can't run on his business experience, he can't run on his governing experience. Every time he opens his mouth he says something awful. Last night, reading about this most recent stupidity of his, I was struck by the number of "is this the gaffe which ends Romney's run for the White House?" stories I was seeing. Not because there were a lot of them, but because this is -- what -- the fifth time I've had to browse these same headlines? The sixth time?

It's incredible. I can't wait to see what he'll say next.
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Born To Lose, Live To Win
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ohbalto wrote:
Every time he opens his mouth he says something awful. Last night, reading about this most recent stupidity of his, I was struck by the number of "is this the gaffe which ends Romney's run for the White House?" stories I was seeing. Not because there were a lot of them, but because this is -- what -- the fifth time I've had to browse these same headlines? The sixth time?

It's incredible. I can't wait to see what he'll say next.


There is something to be said for the belief that the more that a person talks, the more likely they will betray their true selves. It's difficult to keep up a 100% facade in the intense media scrutiny of the modern age.
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Boaty McBoatface
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TheChin! wrote:
ohbalto wrote:
Every time he opens his mouth he says something awful. Last night, reading about this most recent stupidity of his, I was struck by the number of "is this the gaffe which ends Romney's run for the White House?" stories I was seeing. Not because there were a lot of them, but because this is -- what -- the fifth time I've had to browse these same headlines? The sixth time?

It's incredible. I can't wait to see what he'll say next.


There is something to be said for the belief that the more that a person talks, the more likely they will betray their true selves. It's difficult to keep up a 100% facade in the intense media scrutiny of the modern age.


So maybe they should be honest abut who they are and what they think, god forbid.
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