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Subject: For Space Ghost…"Unskewed Polls" rss

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Dave G
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SG, I saw this article and immediately thought of you.

Salon.com article about unskewedpolls.com wrote:
How does the genius behind UnSkewed Polls go about unskewing all the polls — like, for real, the vast majority of polls — that show the opposite result? Well, Dean Chambers, the polling genius behind the site, simply “re-weights” every single national poll to reflect his belief that Republicans are undersampled, based on right-leaning pollster Rasmussen’s partisan breakdown of the electorate.


In the interest of fairness, I also went to the unskewedpolls.com site to see if maybe Salon was being snarky and unfair…I don't know about the math-y bits, but the rest of the site is unintentionally hilarious. Enjoy.
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MGK
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Guys I unskewed the results and it turns out the Buffalo Bills actually won the Super Bowl four times!
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I clicked on some of the links in the Slate article -- one led to this site. Interesting interview

http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f3...
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Dave G
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SpaceGhost wrote:
I clicked on some of the links in the Slate article -- one led to this site. Interesting interview

http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f3...


What's your take on that, as a statistician? Granted my knowledge of statistics is currently solely based on the ten chapters of a statistics I've read as pre-work for my next class, but I find the interviewer sort of maddening there as he won't let the poor guy answer.
 
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Matthew M
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mightygodking wrote:
Guys I unskewed the results and it turns out the Buffalo Bills actually won the Super Bowl four times!


I hate you.

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I agree that the interviewer is kind of a jerk. But, I think that there are some things I wouldn't have said if I were Miringoff. I think that he probably shouldn't have said:

Quote:

HH: It’s not. I just, honestly, I’m not trying to undermine your credibility. I just don’t get at what point you would be alarmed by the sample size. And so I guess I’ll finish up by…
LM: I haven’t had a poll like that in 30 years of polling, so I’ve got a long…
HH: But that’s not the question.
LM: So I’m not going to get alarmed at this.
HH: Dr., that’s not…
LM: It won’t happen. It doesn’t happen.


I would be reluctant to state something so definitively -- there is also a chance, albeit small. Hard to know exactly what they are talking about since the interviewer keeps interrupting.

I think the race is closer than either side wants you to believe. A big question for instance, is the turnout of the black vote. It was 14% of the vote in 2008, but only 11% of the vote in 2004. I think that many of the polls do use 2008 weighting -- which makes some bit of sense; however, it might be an overestimate of turnout for Democrats since Obama had much higher approval/favorability ratings then.


I found some nice polling data for battleground states -- I will try to put together something that illustrates what I think the issues are.



 
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MGK
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SpaceGhost wrote:
I think the race is closer than either side wants you to believe. A big question for instance, is the turnout of the black vote. It was 14% of the vote in 2008, but only 11% of the vote in 2004. I think that many of the polls do use 2008 weighting -- which makes some bit of sense; however, it might be an overestimate of turnout for Democrats since Obama had much higher approval/favorability ratings then.


I think the issue this year is that in addition to "all voters" and "likely voters," a third category of "voters who want to vote and will be allowed to vote" is likely relevant.
 
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