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Subject: Question about pricing on RtR card rss

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Anyone have any idea why a so-so card (at best - at least from what I can see) is priced at $24.99 and it's only a Rare?

I'm speaking of Abrupt Decay - G/B, Can't be countered, etc....destroy target non-land permanent with a CMC of 3 or less.

I fail to see why this should be so bizarrely over-priced. Yet again the magic community confounds logic from my perspective. Sigh

????
 
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Cody Holden
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CMC 2, can't be countered, removal?

Yeah, sounds like a pretty good card for early game. Which is to say, a good card for the entirety of a high-level game.

Also, there's the fact that the set doesn't come out for another week and a half... whistle
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Jerry Martin
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I think you estimate that it so-so at best is where your thinking goes awry. It is one of the best if not the best card in the set.

Don't forget that cards are used in all formats and this is a "kill anything" card in Legacy and Vintage.
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Matt Vollick
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There is an incredibly high demand for the upcoming set. Combined with States and Provincials in mid October, people will want their playsets for their new Standard decks. Plus the card is incredibly good in Modern and Legacy.

I'm sure it will go down to about $10 once enough of the set is opened.

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Pete Lane
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Vollick1979 wrote:
There is an incredibly high demand for the upcoming set. Combined with States and Provincials in mid October, people will want their playsets for their new Standard decks. Plus the card is incredibly good in Modern and Legacy.

I'm sure it will go down to about $10 once enough of the set is opened.



Yes on both accounts. People who play Legacy and Vintage are usually the folks who don't put a lot of money into the game because they already have their decks built, and many new cards will actually not be relevent to what they play.

In this case, it's extremely relevent and the number of interested parties jump dramatically because it's good in all four formats. Same thing with Snapcaster. He was expensive because Legacy and Modern players needed them, not because he was great in JUST standard.
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My point is, how is the card all that great? It only kills things that are inexpensive. So it's partially limited already.

Then it's also limited to Black/Green. So it's limited in scope again.

I guess I don't see how it's so great in light of that. ???
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Jerry Martin
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In older formats color really doesn't matter much. In Standard and therefore modern color fixing is going to be super easy with RTR.

The thing is it kills anything 1-3. That is is way more of the game then you would think when looking at the cost of cards. You might expect since costs go up to 8 and more for a card that the average card you may see in play is something like 4-5. But in reality when you take all the cards being played in a major is probably averages around 2-3. This is because you don't want multiples of expensive cards cluttering your hand. So a deck tends to have multiples of low cost cards and 1's and 2's of higher cost cards. This becomes even more true the larger the format. So it may be that in standard the average is 4 the further you go back the lower the average becomes.

I obviously don't have an exact percentage, but Abrupt Decay probably hits something like 70% of the field. This is shooting from the hip but it is certainly higher than 50%.
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Virre Linwendil Annergård
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Also seems to have the makeings of an EDH/casual staple...
 
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Kristof Bodric
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It's been a while since I played MtG, but this card immediately struck me as amazing. I'm going to try to explain to you why.

First of all, if there was ever a 2-mana kill all card which didn't have any limitations on it, it would immediately get banned as completely imbalanced.

Secondly, although I don't know much about the current metagame, namely what kinds of deck archetypes exist and which cards/threats need to be dealt with, green-black tends to lean towards control-denial. Such decks tend to be threatened by ultra fast decks with swarms of cheap creatures. A control-denial deck only needs to slow the threat down until it achieves the lock, when all the opponent's efforts are in vain. This card does so amazingly well as it can deal with a wide array of threats. Also, its universal removal ability makes it useful in other builds as well. Finally, the fact that it's also an instant, i.e. it can be played at the nastiest possible moment, makes it awesome.

There, I hope that helped.
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Thanks, Jerry and Kristof...those explanations helped.
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Andrés Santiago Pérez-Bergquist
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wytefang wrote:
My point is, how is the card all that great? It only kills things that are inexpensive. So it's partially limited already.


Only killing inexpensive things is not a problem, because expensive things end the game. In constructed formats, converted mana cost up to three is okay, four better turn the game around for you like Wrath of God, five or six has to win the game, and more than that is never played for its fair cost. That's not quite true, but it's close enough to truth to be a good guideline.
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Chris
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I wasn't that impressed either, but after I played with some proxies that changed rather quickly. A very powerful card indeed.
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Tommy Occhipinti
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It is also worth noting the community is very often wrong about this sort of thing. For example, Skaab Ruinator preordered for over $30, and ended up being a complete dud. Before sets come out people are just guessing.

For what it is worth, Vindicate is a very similar card, and sells for $30. The fact that Vindicate can hit lands is probably not used very often.
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Todd Pytel
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delirimouse wrote:
For what it is worth, Vindicate is a very similar card, and sells for $30. The fact that Vindicate can hit lands is probably not used very often.

Well... more importantly, Vindicate kills anything for one mana more. I think it's pretty clearly the better card here, but Vindicate is a high bar indeed.

$25 seems pretty high to me for Abrupt Decay, which is typical for pre-orders. But it will certainly find a home in a number of formats quickly. And never underestimate the utility value of removal that targets a creature plus other stuff. I'm sure there are a number of players that already know exactly where they want to run the card, and those players help drive up preorder prices.

But yeah... I'd guess it will settle significantly lower. I can't see it being in the same price range as Vindicate, though. Probably $10-15. Definitely at least $10.
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Mark McEvoy
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delirimouse wrote:
For what it is worth, Vindicate is a very similar card, and sells for $30. The fact that Vindicate can hit lands is probably not used very often.


I think you're really underselling the uncounterability angle of Abrupt Decay (aside from the Instant-speed and lower cost which reasonably offset the target-cost and nonland limitations from Vindicate).


I think without that clause it's a lukewarm rare in the realm of Oblation. That clause leaps it from 'useful multipurpose threat removal' to "All that PLUS a crucial foil to blue decks that would normally just counter your attempts to defuse their key card".
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Todd Pytel
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thatmarkguy wrote:
I think you're really underselling the uncounterability angle of Abrupt Decay...

I don't if Tommy was, but I was (since I'm not looking the card and haven't followed RtR spoilers). I'd guess the uncounterability isn't going to mean a lot for Standard, but it definitely has a huge impact in Legacy.
 
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Matt Vollick
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From the forums I'm reading, people are considering running Redirect as a way to "counter" Abrupt Decay. It takes a very powerful spell to have people consider running Redirect.

Redirect also has uses against Bonfire of the Damned but that again is a super format defining spell.
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Pete Lane
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So to sum it up...

1 - I'm seeing the card as low as $20 on Tcgplayer, so lesson number one is to not use SCG as a price guide as they are always 10%-25% higher than everywhere else. You can even find them on ebay for as low as $68 a playset sold.

2 - States is a big deal for a lot of players and is a week after set release. Because the tournament players don't want to fuss with trading or getting to an event and finding out the card is sold out at the dealers, they'll buy it at top dollar to cut the middle man and just get the damn cards they want. The fact that States is happening post rotation makes this worse because no one knows what will be good yet.

3 - Presale hype is 99% the highest you'll see most cards. For example... not only was Ruinator a $30 card, but Tamiyo was $35, Sorin v2 was $40, Lili v3 $25, Ajani v3 $35... and all have dropped to more reasonable levels. Sure the opposite happens, but no matter what, people want the new hottness NOW and they will pay for it so they have it at the next FNM or big tournament. Uncounterability is even better, since blue based decks are pretty common in Legacy... many splashing into Blue for access to things like Force of Will and Brainstorm.

4 - Unfortunately, hype drives demand... and when rumors start flying that there won't be a lot of product on the market at first, people run to the nearest window and scream fire. Doesn't help that LCGs and online shops have both started raising the presale price on boxes due to this rumor as well.

5 - The low casting cost thing is VERY important in Modern and Legacy. You need cheap answers for cheap threats, and there is rarely a time in either format that the games aren't decided by early plays. You rarely see "land, go" in these formats unless they are planning to do something on the other person's turn. See Inqusition of Kozilek and Spell Snare... both VERY good cards in each format.
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Steve Wagner
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This card is also being priced based on the current standard meta. The best 2 decks right now both have a great majority of cards with 3 or less mana costs.

Also, the can't be countered line will drive up prices, look at Cavern of Souls, which is somewhat comparable to Ancient Ziggurat except the no counter part.

During Avacyn Preleases, Tibalt the not so good Planeswalker, was going for $22. I opened one during the prerelease and traded him away at that price. He quickly dropped in price, until today where he sits at $3 and even that may be too high.
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