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Subject: Week 4 NFL Observations rss

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1. the Colts coach, Chuck Pagano has been diagnosed with Leukemia, my thoughts go out to him and his family and I wish him a healthy recovery.

2. Panthers & Newton - Cam, hold onto the ball when your running out the clock and beg your team to draft you some weapons this off season to complement your skills for next year.

3. Undefeated - Texans, Falcons, Cardinals - The Texans look like the most impressive team of the 3 however the most impressive to me is the Cardinals, everyone expected the other 2 teams to be good, no one expected the Cardinals to be any good. The cards are playing excellent football so far.

4. Saints - well there is really nothing left to say, it is pretty much official that "bountygate" has destroyed this team.

5. Packers - offense looked more on track but take it with a grain of salt Packer fans, they did against a defense that so far has given up an average of 32.5 points per game. Also, the Packer coaches are starting to really piss me off. They simply are belligerent and refuse to change their game plan. The Saints are giving up over 180 yards rushing per game and we still only managed 84 by our running back who was looking really good. Also our defense played soft zone defense with little blitzing the entire game and just allowed Brees to pick us apart. Our coaches need to learn to adapt.

6. Bills - Holy meltdown batman!

7. Pats/Niners - good bounce back wins for both teams

8. Lions/Vikings - I guess these is why we play the games, the media thought for sure the Lions would be competing for a NFC North title and the Vikings would be cellar dwellers. Lions look horrible at this point the Vikings look great.

9. Jets - shut out at home, embarrassing loss that could not happen to more of a tool of a coach.

10. Seahawks - could not win a game without massive help from the refs (sorry could not help myself)

11. 1-3 teams - of them all the buccaneers look the most impressive to me, they are in every single game having lost all 3 games but 7 points or less

12. Through 4 weeks I feel like everything I have known about football over the last few years has been turned upside down, to put it in the simplest of terms, the "bad" teams are actually really good for the most part this years and the "good" teams are not looking all that well.

13 - tonight's game - which teams will show up? We have a match up of 2 teams, both of which, are Jekyll & Hyde. One week they look like Super Bowl contenders, the next like chumps. Will the real bears & boys please stand up
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Ogsponge wrote:

11. 1-3 teams - of them all the buccaneers look the most impressive to me, they are in every single game having lost all 3 games but 7 points or less


The Bucs did look good this week. Which brings a question in this game and the college OSU/UT game. Why do teams only try the lateral pass as a final play in games where the clock runs out. I always love watching a lateral pass play. It's sloppy, but always dramatic.
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Erik D
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I wanted Tynes to make that FG at the end of the Giants/Eagles game mostly because I love it when a coach screws his own team trying to ice the kicker. Seriously, is there any strategy stupider and more tedious than icing the kicker? Thank god the league changed the rules so the coach can only spend on time out on it.
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Robert M
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Ogsponge wrote:
4. Saints - well there is really nothing left to say, it is pretty much official that "bountygate" has destroyed this team.


One good thing that came of "bountygate" is that it seems to have curbed the media worship of the Saints that came after Katrina. That got really old for me and started me cheering against the Saints.
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Mark Britten
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My observation for the week is that Miami can't defend on third down soblue
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cryolemon wrote:
My observation for the week is that Miami can't defend on third down soblue


Neither can the Packers, Brees was 10/12 of 3rd down and completed passes on 6 different 3rd and 10 (or more) situations which is simply ridiculous that a defense would allow that to happen.
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1. Worst team in the NFC North? Well, this is familiar. I switched over to the Tiger game frequently because the Lions were just so hard to watch. At least Detroit fans can watch a playoff run in baseball.

2. The Lions special teams coordinator should be fired, in fact he should have been fired by 4:30 yesterday afternoon. I'm sorry, but they single-handedly lost 2 games in a row because of 4 kick returns for touchdowns. When your squad is on the field for one tenth the time the defense is on the field, but you give up more points than they do that is complete and utter failure at your job. Not to mention the fact that we are under the new kickoff rules where touchbacks are at an all-time high, you've got an amazing kicker who launches the ball 7 yards deep in the end zone, and yet the return guy sees a clear enough opening to not only bring it out of the end zone but never get touched on the way to a touchdown?! Danny Crossman...you are the weakest link, goodbye!

3. Definitely noticed the flow of the game was more natural with the regular refs. Nicest part about it, the officials were hardly even talked about in the games I watched.

4. The 0-4 Saints are the best advertisement for the value of coaching we have ever seen. Every coach is just giddy watching this implosion, and looking forward to their next contract negotiation.

5. Was it the regular refs return, or just a regression toward the mean that now made the game results a little more predictable? Not one person eliminated from the suicide league this week.

6. Bengals...best team that no one is talking about? Flying under the radar could work really well for these guys. I realize they haven't exactly been beating the elite teams of the NFL, but one of the secrets of a successful season is simply beating the teams you should beat. The Lions have always struggled with this, so I know from experience.

7. Does any team have an easier trip to the playoffs than Atlanta? They sit at 4-0 while the rest of the teams in their division are a combined 2-10!
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I still can't decide if Peyton Manning is for real or not. He looked great the first week, terrible the next, mediocre last week, and now this past weekend he looked fairly good. He was totally in control as he marched the offense down drive after drive, but he hasn't been truly launching any bombs. Almost all of his passes were 5 or 6 yards downfield. Maybe it's his group of receivers, the best two of which (Thomas and Decker) are fairly young. He was out for a year though, so maybe I should expect him to be 100% back. Maybe he'll never be back to the old Peyton.

Either way, it makes Broncos games a lot more exciting to watch with a real QB behind centre.

Also, they beat (humiliated?) the Raiders, so the season is already a success.
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Miami weekly checklist:

1. Outplay opponent.
2. Stop playing with three minutes left.
3. Lose game on succession of improbable plays.
4. Congratulate selves on ability to flawlessly execute a checklist.
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Blott wrote:
7. Does any team have an easier trip to the playoffs than Atlanta?

The Texans. Everybody else in the AFC south stinks.

soblue
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Ogsponge wrote:

3. Undefeated - Texans, Falcons, Cardinals - The Texans look like the most impressive team of the 3 however the most impressive to me is the Cardinals, everyone expected the other 2 teams to be good, no one expected the Cardinals to be any good. The cards are playing excellent football so far.


The Defense and QB have been better than expected. But what they're doing is unsustainable. They won a squeaker against Miami in large part because they recovered all 6 fumbles in the game. That's extremely unlikely, and if any one of those goes the other way it's very possibly not going to OT.

The team is poised to crash back down to earth soon.

Quote:

6. Bills - Holy meltdown batman!


Hey now...we had a goalline fumble - in all fairness the score should have been 52-35.

Quote:

8. Lions/Vikings - I guess these is why we play the games, the media thought for sure the Lions would be competing for a NFC North title and the Vikings would be cellar dwellers. Lions look horrible at this point the Vikings look great.


The Vikings have been a true surprise. I'm not surprised by Stafford's decline. He had a phenomenal year last year, but I wasn't as quick to be willing to buy into him until he showed he could repeat. That 2011 season seems like a long time ago.

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Blott wrote:

5. Was it the regular refs return, or just a regression toward the mean that now made the game results a little more predictable? Not one person eliminated from the suicide league this week.


You also have a biased sample - the longer the pool goes the better, on average, the survivors are at picking winners.
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Ben Lott
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Octavian wrote:
Ogsponge wrote:

8. Lions/Vikings - I guess these is why we play the games, the media thought for sure the Lions would be competing for a NFC North title and the Vikings would be cellar dwellers. Lions look horrible at this point the Vikings look great.


The Vikings have been a true surprise. I'm not surprised by Stafford's decline. He had a phenomenal year last year, but I wasn't as quick to be willing to buy into him until he showed he could repeat. That 2011 season seems like a long time ago.


Don't get too high on the Vikings yet. Their offense looked horrendous. They won because their defense was successful against our overrated offense and because we have Lloyd Christmas coaching special teams.
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rob cavallo
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1) the jets suck

2) the jets suck

3) the jets suck

4) im a jets fan

5) the jets suck
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I think the Houston area is relieved to have the Texans success for the next few years. With the Astros (team record in losses and moving to the AL West) and the Rockets (the greenest team in the NBA), it's gonna be a long time until we see a non-football winner.
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I am still working on the Cardinals being 4-0 for the first time since before I was born.

Question: Are the Eagles the worst 3-1 team there is? or are they actually pretty good to keep pulling these games out?

PS. As a Broncos fan can we play Oakland every week please?
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erak wrote:
I wanted Tynes to make that FG at the end of the Giants/Eagles game mostly because I love it when a coach screws his own team trying to ice the kicker. Seriously, is there any strategy stupider and more tedious than icing the kicker? Thank god the league changed the rules so the coach can only spend on time out on it.


I want to be an NFL kicker so that way after a coach has tried to ice me when lining up to take the kick I can look him in the eye and call another timeout.
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Blott wrote:
Octavian wrote:
Ogsponge wrote:

8. Lions/Vikings - I guess these is why we play the games, the media thought for sure the Lions would be competing for a NFC North title and the Vikings would be cellar dwellers. Lions look horrible at this point the Vikings look great.


The Vikings have been a true surprise. I'm not surprised by Stafford's decline. He had a phenomenal year last year, but I wasn't as quick to be willing to buy into him until he showed he could repeat. That 2011 season seems like a long time ago.


Don't get too high on the Vikings yet. Their offense looked horrendous. They won because their defense was successful against our overrated defense and because we have Lloyd Christmas coaching special teams.


I honestly have a hard time giving the Vikings any credit yet either, but for now, they are winning.
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Octavian wrote:
The Defense and QB have been better than expected. But what they're doing is unsustainable. They won a squeaker against Miami in large part because they recovered all 6 fumbles in the game. That's extremely unlikely, and if any one of those goes the other way it's very possibly not going to OT.

The team is poised to crash back down to earth soon.


Octavian, NB: The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL (11-2) over the last 13 games.
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Bizarrity:

Before the Monday night game, the point differential for the NFC East is:

-17 (division leader)
-7
0
+27 (division loser)
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Sinister Dexter wrote:


Octavian, NB: The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL (11-2) over the last 13 games.


And this year they've had more than their fair share of luck help them in winning those games. And that is not sustainable.

Week 1: Recovered 50% of fumbles (2/4). Won by 2
Week 2: Recovered 100% of fumbles (2/2). Won by 2
Week 3: Recovered 100% of fumbles (3/3). Won by 21
Week 4: Recovered 100% of fumbles (6/6). Won by 3 (OT)

Fumble recovery is luck. If not for their luck at recovering fumbles they are probably 2-2 instead of 4-0. You can't rely on maintaining a rate of 86% fumble recovery to continue to win games.


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Octavian wrote:
Sinister Dexter wrote:


Octavian, NB: The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL (11-2) over the last 13 games.


And this year they've had more than their fair share of luck help them in winning those games. And that is not sustainable.

Week 1: Recovered 50% of fumbles (2/4). Won by 2
Week 2: Recovered 100% of fumbles (2/2). Won by 2
Week 3: Recovered 100% of fumbles (3/3). Won by 21
Week 4: Recovered 100% of fumbles (6/6). Won by 3 (OT)

Fumble recovery is luck. If not for their luck at recovering fumbles they are probably 2-2 instead of 4-0. You can't rely on maintaining a rate of 86% fumble recovery to continue to win games.




Did you ever play football? Saying recovering fumbles is luck is crazy. If that is the case, coaches from Pee Wee football all the way to the pros waste enormous effort and time on fumble drills.

I concede there is a small amount of luck with the way the ball bounces, but recovering fumbles is not purely luck. I do also agree that that rate of recovery is not sustainable but it is not purely luck.
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Ogsponge wrote:


Did you ever play football? Saying recovering fumbles is luck is crazy. If that is the case, coaches from Pee Wee football all the way to the pros waste enormous effort and time on fumble drills.

I concede there is a small amount of luck with the way the ball bounces, but recovering fumbles is not purely luck. I do also agree that that rate of recovery is not sustainable but it is not purely luck.


It is mostly luck. Otherwise you'd expect to see a correlation between any given team's fumble recovery rate from one season to the next. The correlation is near zero.
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Octavian wrote:
Ogsponge wrote:


Did you ever play football? Saying recovering fumbles is luck is crazy. If that is the case, coaches from Pee Wee football all the way to the pros waste enormous effort and time on fumble drills.

I concede there is a small amount of luck with the way the ball bounces, but recovering fumbles is not purely luck. I do also agree that that rate of recovery is not sustainable but it is not purely luck.


It is mostly luck. Otherwise you'd expect to see a correlation between any given team's fumble recovery rate from one season to the next. The correlation is near zero.


If it was purely luck, fumbles drills would never exist. Effort plays a large part in the recovery of a fumble, proper contain (being in the right position, not overrunning plays) plays a large partt in the recovery of a fumble, falling on the ball instead of trying to pick it up and run with it plays a large part in the recovery of the fumble.

You sound like a statistician, not a person that really understands what is happening in a football game.
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Blott wrote:


6. Bengals...best team that no one is talking about? Flying under the radar could work really well for these guys. I realize they haven't exactly been beating the elite teams of the NFL, but one of the secrets of a successful season is simply beating the teams you should beat. The Lions have always struggled with this, so I know from experience.



Shhhhhhhh! They won't keep flying under the radar if you open your big yap about them!

Seriously, though, as a Bengals fan I'm not completely sold on them at this point. They were utterly ineffective against the Ravens week 1. It could be any combinations of the Ravens being that good, early season rust, or even an inability to handle a Monday night game, but it's going to be a few more games before I'll buy in. Of course, they were supposed to have this tough schedule this year, but all the topsy-turvyness of who's good and bad has blown that up.
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