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Subject: Minimizing Die Rolls rss

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Matt Uhrich
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Fellow Strugglers,

I played a game last night in which, for whatever reason, I had very few die rolls. Now, my cards were quite good, so I was in a very favorable position, but it got me wondering. Would it be beneficial to try to avoid the randomness of die rolls as much as possible? The game before I had rolled eleven times with only 2 successes while receiving a vicious beating, so I had bad rolling on my mind. Then I realized that I might not have had many die rolls because my opponent's failure to provide me with any decent targets for coups and realignments. I'm just kinda thinking out loud—or in print. What do you think?

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Edward
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The impact of die rolls seems rather overstated. But we've tried playing with a "mulligan card", similar to the China Card, that starts with the USSR. You get to mulligan any single die roll and upon use you give it to the opponent facedown.
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Björn von Knorring
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As usual it depends... I uses to say; if you're behind you have to gamble i e roll the die. If you're doing well and have good cards it better not to.
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Evgeny Reznikov
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theory wrote:
The impact of die rolls seems rather overstated. But we've tried playing with a "mulligan card", similar to the China Card, that starts with the USSR. You get to mulligan any single die roll and upon use you give it to the opponent facedown.

And how did that work for you?
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darune
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Dice rolls is of course a part of the game and some are neccesary (eg. to coup into a region).


My thinking about wars/coups/realignment is usually, that while success often mean you gain some momentum; failure gives even more momemtum to opponent. Realignment is a special case and very circumstantiel (although you could have the odds in your favor - hence it is not always as risky as it looks)


Couping stability 2 countries is on average less effecient than placing influence in non-controlled countries (except with a 1 ops card), also overcontrol is for the most part not really beneficial. So defending agsinst coups(except stability 1 countries) is better.


Example:
USSR coups brazil with 4-ops.
US has 2 influence in brazil.

Roll
1: net -3: 1 us influence
2: net -2: 0 us influence
3: net -1: 0 us influence, 1 USSR influence
4: net 0: 0 us influence, 2 USSR influence
5: net +1: 0 us influence, 3 USSR influence
6: net +2: 0 us influence, 4 USSR influence

The average net in this case is -0.5.
While it is argueable better to end up with 3 or 4 influence (eg. it will help defend against a later recoup)- you wouldn't have place 4 there yourself and in this case probably not 3 either unless fearing an immediate recoup. So in a way that extra influence is not really giving you 'value for money'. This is hard to quantify and is very circumstantial - ie. overcontrol is much more needed in some countries than others (iran, pakistan, thailand for instance).

Of course, in the above example, in some cases, we are better off couping with a 2-ops or 3-ops card and saving the 4-ops, so we are not 'overspending' in the country. The drawback is now we are more likely to fail or accomplishing nothing - thus loosing any momemtum we could have had.
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Matt Uhrich
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Quote:
My thinking about wars/coups/realignment is usually, that while success often mean you gain some momentum; failure gives even more momemtum to opponent.


That is so true. Failing a coup or even just removing a couple of your opponent's influence is devastating psychologically and for momentum. It's like you just skipped an action round and lost some Ops in the process. On the other hand, turning 2 of your opponents influence into 4 of yours feels pretty good.

I still haven't totally wrapped my head around the proper usage of realignment rolls.
 
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Evgeny Reznikov
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darune wrote:

Couping stability 2 countries is on average less effecient than placing influence in non-controlled countries (except with a 1 ops card), also overcontrol is for the most part not really beneficial. So defending agsinst coups(except stability 1 countries) is better.


Maybe it's mathematically less efficient, but other factors often make it the optimal move:
* Only one such coup avaialble per turn (in BG countries)
* The ability to eliminate a rival from a region / part of a region
etc...
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darune
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azuredarkness wrote:
darune wrote:

Couping stability 2 countries is on average less effecient than placing influence in non-controlled countries (except with a 1 ops card), also overcontrol is for the most part not really beneficial. So defending agsinst coups(except stability 1 countries) is better.


Maybe it's mathematically less efficient, but other factors often make it the optimal move:
* Only one such coup avaialble per turn (in BG countries)
* The ability to eliminate a rival from a region / part of a region
etc...


I agree, the AR1 iran coup is a good example.
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Eric Engstrom
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The U wrote:
Quote:
My thinking about wars/coups/realignment is usually, that while success often mean you gain some momentum; failure gives even more momemtum to opponent.


That is so true. Failing a coup or even just removing a couple of your opponent's influence is devastating psychologically and for momentum. It's like you just skipped an action round and lost some Ops in the process. On the other hand, turning 2 of your opponents influence into 4 of yours feels pretty good.

I still haven't totally wrapped my head around the proper usage of realignment rolls.


I usually use Realignment Rolls when I want to attack my opponents in high stability countries with few allies surrounding. If I have the lead, I will not hesitate to use a large card to force some realignment rolls. Although he will have a +1 for most influence, just one crappy roll on his part will wipe him out entirely.
 
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