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Subject: Isn't victory point gaining from battles too much random? rss

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Ricijs Zaleskis
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Hello
Excuse me if this already has been posted somewhere, but I have a question about battles in Eclipse.
Example, if you fight a battle against an opponent and you destroy 3 of his ships you draw 3 victory point markers at random from the bag. The question is, don't you think it is too much random, because one player can go into battles, let's say only 4 times in the whole game and take out all the 4 point tokens like I did in one game and that gave me victory, does't this seem a bit unbalanced? And how other fellow geeks are getting along with this?
My thoughts would be it would be fair if you gain 3 or 4 victory point markers if you fight against the center ship or opponent lvl 3 ships.

RZ
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Gleb Semenjuk
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You would take all the juice from the game if you keep balancing it too much. Too dry games are never very fun to play.
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Josh Lacey
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The more battles you are in, and the better and bigger ships you destroy the more odds you have of getting better reputation tiles then your opponent.

Yes, technically somebody could only be in 4 battles and win one reputation tile each time, and get all 4 of those 4 rep tiles. I don't have the rules in front of me, but say there are 30 tiles, of which 4 are the 4 point tiles. That's roughly .033, so less then a 4 percent chance of drawing a single 4 point tile with one draw. If my statistics courses haven't failed me if you multiply that by itself 4 times you come up with .001, so essentially 1/10th of a percent chance that all 4 tiles that player drew being the 4's.

However, the more tiles you draw the better odds you give yourself to improve your reputation victory points position. Again, I'm just rough guessing how many tiles there are (box isn't w/me at the moment), but odds are really slim that this will happen. That being said, Eclipse certainly has a lot of randomness to it and your opponents 4 draws could certainly be, 4,3,3,2 while you get 4,3,2,2 with 20 draws...at that point you just thematically tell yourself that their war machine probably just did a better job at propaganda that game...
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Gleb Semenjuk
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Josh, you could also multiply in the chances that noone else would get those 4's in their draws. This would make the situation look like "Royal Flush" in probability. And noone complaints that poker is imbalanced.
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Josh Lacey
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Excellent point Gleb.
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Simon Kamber
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TGCRequiem wrote:

Yes, technically somebody could only be in 4 battles and win one reputation tile each time, and get all 4 of those 4 rep tiles. I don't have the rules in front of me, but say there are 30 tiles, of which 4 are the 4 point tiles. That's roughly .033, so less then a 4 percent chance of drawing a single 4 point tile with one draw. If my statistics courses haven't failed me if you multiply that by itself 4 times you come up with .001, so essentially 1/10th of a percent chance that all 4 tiles that player drew being the 4's.


How do you reach these numbers? Dividing 4 by 30, I get 13%.

Still not likely, but much less of a long shot.
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Lauri Suomalainen
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Also the limited quantity of 4 and 3 point tiles encourage battling early, because those late for party are more likely to get the tiles with less points.
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Gleb Semenjuk
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Another quick math that does not have to be precise:

Situation: 1 player lost 4 battles and draws 4 times to get 4*4.
Firstly, to simplify, we assume that there no another battles at that time and the lucky player is the defender and always draws first. Also, opponent draws three tiles:

Draw 1: chances to get 4 = 4/30 = 13%, chances that another player won't get any 4's from three draws = 26/29 * 25/28 * 24/27 = 71%. Total = 9%.

Draw 2: chances to get 4 = 3/28 = 10%, chances that another player won't get any 4's from three draws = 25/27 * 24/26 * 23/25 = 78%. Total = 7,8%.

Draw 3: chances to get 4 = 2/26 = 8%, chances that another player won't get any 4's from three draws = 24/25 * 23/24 * 22/23 = 88%. Total = 7%.

Draw 4: chances to get 4 = 1/25 = 4%. Another party's chances don't play here.

So, multiplying the probabilities: 9%*8%*7%*4% =~0,002016% So, it's like once in 50000 games. If we add another's players rolls that must not get "4", the fact that this player does not always draw first, etc, etc, chances would be even smaller. I think, there is no problem.
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Ricijs Zaleskis
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Thank you all for answering OK, so it seems it happens rarely and it seems that out of 5 or 6 Eclipse plays I had one of these games where it only took me 4 battles to get all the 4. Of course, I did not draw 1 nor even 2 tiles for each battle but 3 and 4 if I remember correctly. Anyways, looks like I must play more Eclipse thank you again
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Josh Lacey
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Yeah, that was really terrible math...sorry about that guys. I was in such a rush to provide assistance I rushed my numbers. No worries though...I just work at a bank whistle
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