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Subject: AAR#2: Interesting Stalemate rss

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Geoffrey Wilson
United States
New York
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This is my second Israeli Independence after action report.
I'm playing with all of the cards from the original game (“Advanced Game”, but no expansion) and with the three Israeli Offensive tokens. Each turn is a few weeks of historical time.
Here I go.

1: The Arabs come out swinging: Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan all advance. Israel knocks Jordan back to its own border, in Operation Yaov.

2: Israeli pilots shoot down four RAF planes, raising tensions with the UK. Meanwhile, Egypt, Syria, and Jordan all advance. (Lebanon is now at Acre, Syria at Tiberias, Egypt at Gaza). Israel attacks the furthest advances Arab army, that of Syria, and pushes it back.

3: David Ben-Gurion declares the establishment of the State of Israel. The US and USSR, among many others, quickly recognize the new country. Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Jordan advance. Egypt's and Syria's armies are the furthest advanced, so Israel strikes them both back first, and then turns to push back Jordan. (Wow, lucky with my offensives so far.)

4: Lebanon advances (to Haifa) and Jordan advances (to Ramallah). The Israeli generals see an opportunity to knock Egypt out of the war, so they launch a strong offensive (Operation Horev) against that country's army and push it back from Gaza into Eygpt (El Arish). Israel then attacks Jordan (a strong army and dangerously close) but fails to push it back. (First failed Israeli offensive of the War.)
The Egyptian government realizes its defeat and reaches an armistice with Israel.

5: Iraq advances to Domia. Lebanese Christians oppose their country's war, so Israel tries for another armistice with an offensive against the Lebanese army, but fails. Next Israel attacks Jordan, and succeeds. (Pushed back to Jericho.)

6: Arab resolve weakens at home, so all the Arab armies cautiously fall back rather than attacking. Israel launches a sustained offensive against the Iraqi army, and forces it back to the Jordanian border. A northward offensive fails to budge the Lebanese army.

7: Syria advances out of the Golan Heights to Safed. Israel errors in focusing all its attention on Jordan, and so fails to launch a single counter-offensive to the present threat of Syria.

8: Lebanon and Iraq both advance. Ironically, the weakest Arab army (Lebanon's) is the most successful. Israeli soldiers raise the hand-made “Ink flag” on the Mediterranean Sea after they beat the Lebanese back.
9: Radical Zionists massacre at least 107 Palestinian Arabs in the Deri Yassin Massacre. Jordan advances. A long sustained offensive against Iraq recovers no ground.

10: Lebanon advances. American-Israeli Colonel David “Mickey” Marcus sets up an emergency supply route for Jerusalem, in case of future Arab blockade. The Iraqi army stands firm against another Israeli attack.

11: Iraq advances. Heroic Israeli resistance at Kibbutz Degania forces the Syrians back to Golan.

12: Palestinian refugees hinder Arab operations, and the Iraqi and Jordanian armies pull back to reinforce their logistics.

13: Syria and Iraq advance. Operation Dani pushes back the Iraqis.

14: The elite Arab Legion of Jordan advances back into the West Bank. An Israeli counter-attack against the Legion fails.

15: Syria, Iraq, and Jordan all advance. (!) The emboldened Arabs carry out a massacre of a medical convoy en route to Hadassah hospital.
Furious, Israel attacks Syria's and Jordan's armies, forcing both back.

16: The War quiets down for a couple weeks due to a truce that both sides observe.

17: Jordan breaks the truce with an advance to Ramallah. The road to Jerusalem is now blocked, strangling Israeli operations in the West Bank. Israel attacks the Syrian army and fails to move it.

18: Syria and Jordan advance: Jordanian forces occupy the Eastern half of Jerusalem! Israel launches a sustained offensive that pushes the Jordanians out of the city. Iraqi political will is tiring, but Israel is too focused on Jordan to take advantage of it.

19: Lebanon and Jordan both advance: the Israeli government in West Jerusalem is besieged by Lebanese forces in Tel Aviv, and Jordanian forces in East Jerusalem. Desperate counter-attacks against Lebanon and Jordan fail repeatedly. Israel calls up all available reserves and throws them into East Jerusalem: the Jordanians are pushed back, after brutal losses for both sides in the urban combat. Lebanon's army remains in close proximity to West Jerusalem.

20: A UN brokered truce is rejected by both sides. Syria advances to Nablus. Israeli attacks push both Lebanon and Syria.

21: Israel is in its most desperate situation yet. An influx of Arab Palestinian volunteers to the armies of Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, gives the necessary momentum for all three to advance out of the West Bank into striking distance of West Jerusalem. Syria is in Nablus, Iraq in Ramallah, and Jordan in East Jerusalem. Israel focuses on East Jerusalem, and fails to make a dent in the Jordanian line.

22: The same positions continue; Israel's desperate eastern line holds firm. The Israeli's still can't reake East Jerusalem.

23: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) is established, but cannot organize in time to stop a Syrian offensive from seizing West Jerusalem.

Israel has failed to win its War of Independence. It has not decisively lost either: the situation is a stale-mate.
Arab strength is nearly as exhausted as that of the IDF, and the latter can regroup and still make a stand in the southern part of Israel. Egypt is out of the war, so the Israelis can likely hold out indefinitely against the Arab hordes up north, who are tired, and have achieved most of their war aims already. There will be jubilation in the Arab capitals, yet dissatisfaction behind the scenes as a rump state of Israel still exists. Fighting behind the front lines between Jewish and Arab militias will continue for years. What the rest of the world will do in response remains to be seen, but the Arab-Israeli War of 1948-1949 has ended in stalemate.
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