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Subject: Unemployment drops to 7.7% rss

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Mac Mcleod
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http://www.mnn.com/money/green-workplace/blogs/november-2012...

Quote:

During the month of November, 146,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs were added, including job growth in the following industries:

•Professional and business services (+43,000 jobs)
•Retail – clothing and clothing accessory stores (+33,000)
•Healthcare (+20,000)
•Wholesale trade (+13,000)
•Retail – general merchandise stores (+10,000)
•Retail – electronics and appliance stores (+9,000)


Obama's elected.

There is no need for the BLS to keep this charade up any more!

After the fake 7.8% they produced to help his election campaign, they need to start working back to the real number by the end of the year and now it's too late!

---

Or in some crazy land, perhaps the 7.8% number was a valid number produced by a neutral government organization with high professional standards. But that's just crazy talk.

I expect 2013 is going to be tight but things should be very nice by 2014. High 6% unemployment rates and increasingly easy for people to demand more reasonable working hours.
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Boaty McBoatface
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Why are farms left out?
 
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Trey Stone
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I guess since Rove has been kicked to the curb, bj is bucking for turd blossom's gig now.
 
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bjlillo wrote:
146,000 jobs in a month isn't enough to keep up with population growth. How many people slid off the back end of the rolls? What's the workforce participation percentage number these days?


The real number, the U6 rate, dropped from 14.6% to 14.4%, the lowest it's been since January of 2009.
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Drew1365 wrote:
Industry that gained the most: retail.


More retail indicates more demand, demand needs supply, investment in supply goes up, profit is made, economy grows. Something has to increase first and increases in retail can be signs of healthy growth as opposed to broken trickle down theories.

The kicker here is to balance the supply side growth so that it isn't all import growth. Not sure if the government is taking any steps in that direction. We can't rely on Captains Of Industry to to see the forest for the trees, but maybe some tariffs or something are in order so they have extra trees they want to look at.
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Blorb Plorbst
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I'll add that the rate is seasonally adjusted so this is not just an xmas time retail uptick.
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Damian
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slatersteven wrote:
Why are farms left out?

Because farm jobs are highly seasonal and temporary. They're tracked separately as they always have been.
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Boaty McBoatface
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damiangerous wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
Why are farms left out?

Because farm jobs are highly seasonal and temporary. They're tracked separately as they always have been.
Cheers, that makes sense. Thus is (in essence) then long term and permanent employment?
 
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Mac Mcleod
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Drew1365 wrote:
bjlillo wrote:
146,000 jobs in a month isn't enough to keep up with population growth. How many people slid off the back end of the rolls? What's the workforce participation percentage number these days?


"The civilian labor force participation rate fell to 63.6% in November from 63.8% in October."

Industries that lost the most jobs: construction, manufacturing.

Industry that gained the most: retail.


Note the 2007 december report. Not much different and during boom times, lower numbers by about 5% (which seems more than population growth since 2007)

2007 December jobs report

Nonfarm employment 138,495 jobs
Goods Producing 22,146
* Construction 7,489
* Manufacturing 13,919
Service-providing 116,349
* Retail trade 15,370
* Professional and business service 18,106
* Education and health services 18,627
* Leisure and hospitality 13,734
* Government 22,388


(and to the question above... I have no idea why farm is left out)
 
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Damian
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bjlillo wrote:
146,000 jobs in a month isn't enough to keep up with population growth.

Maybe not by sheer numbers (although I'm not so sure), but consider population balance as well. We just started the wave of retiring Boomers.
Quote:
How many people slid off the back end of the rolls? What's the workforce participation percentage number these days?

The report itself.

"The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million in November. These individuals ccounted for 40.1 percent of the unemployed. "

and

"The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 63.6 percent in November, offsetting an increase of the same amount in October. Total employment was about unchanged in November, following a combined increase of 1.3 million over the prior 2 months. The employment-population ratio, at 58.7 percent, changed little in November."


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Damian
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slatersteven wrote:
damiangerous wrote:
slatersteven wrote:
Why are farms left out?

Because farm jobs are highly seasonal and temporary. They're tracked separately as they always have been.
Cheers, that makes sense. Thus is (in essence) then long term and permanent employment?

Correct. That's the theory anyway.
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bjlillo wrote:
146,000 jobs in a month isn't enough to keep up with population growth. How many people slid off the back end of the rolls? What's the workforce participation percentage number these days?


Bj, these people here don't care. Look at the threads since The Lord Savior's reelection - 60-70% of them are still blaming the R's and GW Bush for everything. What the Liberals here care about is feeling like they are right. They don't care how many people dropped out of the labor market totally to arrive at this 7.7 figure (something like another 500,000), they don't care that the D's own the presidency and the senate because they feel threatened by congress, so they blame Bonehead Bohner for everything Obama and Reid fail to accomplish.

What else don't they care about? Anything that even hints that liberal progressive ideology isn't perfect and that the only smudges in it's purity are those done by evil corporate America-hatin', pollution-lovin' conservative Tea Party, Christian, cross-burnin', racist, women-beating people who aren't like them.

They don't want to talk about how Obama and his FEMA screwed the pooch on Sandy and that even now people don't have power, help or anything. The media would have drug any republican through the street behind a motorcycle if he had abandoned the victims once the election was in the bag. but this is Obama and the media will not report anything that taints him... because he is their creation and the creation of the wealthy, cold-hearted liberal elite who only know one thing - they are right and they will prove it no matter how much it costs everybody but them and no matter who suffers from their policies. They are right and that's that.

Hooray for a number. Today's number is 7.7... I am willing to bet that no matter how many people are actually unemployed and no matter how far the economy descends, the number reported will get better every time it's reported. Just ask the people who aren't starving in North Korea how that works... they aren't real, the numbers in the media are real.

Oh, and for all you "totally awesome 100% right" morons who were crowing about how Obama saved the auto industry. Get to Googling and see how many months of unsold inventory the Big Three currently have rusting in hidden lots all over America.

Fucking Dummies.
 
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Wally Jones
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Meanwhile - the total unemployment rate is over 14%.

Sad times.
 
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DWTripp wrote:
Hooray for a number. Today's number is 7.7... I am willing to bet that no matter how many people are actually unemployed and no matter how far the economy descends, the number reported will get better every time it's reported. Just ask the people who aren't starving in North Korea how that works... they aren't real, the numbers in the media are real.


So you are basically announcing that no matter what gets reported, you're not going to believe it (unless maybe it's bad news)? Because... why exactly? Oh yes, you know the truth because of REASONS.

Quote:
Oh, and for all you "totally awesome 100% right" morons who were crowing about how Obama saved the auto industry. Get to Googling and see how many months of unsold inventory the Big Three currently have rusting in hidden lots all over America.


Um, well, aside from the "rusting in hidden lots" part, it looks like US automakers ramped up production because of the success they were having with sales, so their Japanese competitors started offering deeper discounts and succeeded in cutting into sales, so the US companies got caught with excess inventory. So now they're trying to figure out if they should cut production or offer their own deep discounts or what. Massive shock, unprecedented (except not), something something bailout something something Obama's failure.
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DWTripp wrote:
Get to Googling and see how many months of unsold inventory the Big Three currently have rusting in hidden lots all over America.

Fucking Dummies.


Wait--even the auto industry doesn't get the rustproofing? Millions of Americans have their theories confirmed.

Also, Dude, "dummies" is not the preferred nomenclature. Inflatable-Americans, please.
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DWTripp wrote:
Fucking Dummies.


Loser.
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Any sign of improvement == conservative vitrol.

The republican implosion continues.
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Mac Mcleod
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http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net...

Final BLS December reports by year...

year Dec
2002 -163 (Bush: 9/11 tho)
2003 119 (Bush)
2004 134 (Bush)
2005 160 (Bush)
2006 171 (Bush)
2007 89 (wow- much worse than the preliminary one I found above)
2008 -661 (Bush)
2009 -171 (Bush/Obama)
2010 120 (Obama)
2011 223 (Obama)
2012 145p (Obama)


I've bolded the 3rd year of the term for each president.

Personally, I think 2005 and 2006 were artificial byproducts of holding interest rates really low (as much greenspan as bush) to prevent the recession which should have occured. Which just multipled the recession that finally happened.

Wow- look at those 2008 job losses 661,000 jobs right before christmas.

I don't put it all on bush and greenspan. Some of it had Clinton and Reagan's hands all over it. I give Bush Sr. a pass. I think he ran a pretty good government until I hear differently.

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Jeff Jones
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Drew1365 wrote:
MWChapel wrote:
Any sign of improvement == conservative vitrol.


Hey, liberals have been having a twelve-year hate-fest, so conservatives have a lot of catching up to do.


We disliked the guy who brought the entire world to the brink of economic collapse. You guys hate the guy who is bringing us back from the edge. I'd much rather be us than you.
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MWChapel wrote:
Any sign of improvement == conservative vitrol.

The republican implosion continues.


There's a reason many people that would be considered moderate 10 years ago can not take a word they say seriously.

"Unemployment is down." - Worst thing ever. It's actually up. The Obama horror continues to destroy everything!

"We might want to do something about global warming..." - No. The opposite is true, the earth is actually cooling, and if it is warming, then it's a natural thing and there's nothing to be done. The point is that Al BORE is wrong about everything, so he cannot be right about this.

"The response to Katrina was lacking." - That's not the government's job, until it is the government's job when Obama totally fucks it up and we have people without power. Katrina issues were caused by lousy Democrats and losers, whereas Sandy issues are caused by one man and one mana alone: Barack Hussein in the Membrane Nobama.

Watch out for Acorn. Watch out for the super scary NEW BLACK PANTHERS. Watch out for Reverend Jeremiah WRONG. Watch out for the Weather Underground. Obama is planning on taking your guns, so you have to watch out for the Federal Government (unless we are in charge, and then you best not BLAME AMERICA FIRST). That girl talking about contraception is a slut and a liar, so you better watch out for her disgusting whorefingers as well.


Even if there was a serious candidate who represented my interests more than a Democrat, I cannot vote for an Republican because the Constant Bullshit Factory that the Republican party has become would interpret my vote as an endorsement of their tactics.
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DWTripp wrote:
bjlillo wrote:
146,000 jobs in a month isn't enough to keep up with population growth. How many people slid off the back end of the rolls? What's the workforce participation percentage number these days?


Bj, these people here don't care. Look at the threads since The Lord Savior's reelection - 60-70% of them are still blaming the R's and GW Bush for everything. What the Liberals here care about is feeling like they are right. They don't care how many people dropped out of the labor market totally to arrive at this 7.7 figure (something like another 500,000), they don't care that the D's own the presidency and the senate because they feel threatened by congress, so they blame Bonehead Bohner for everything Obama and Reid fail to accomplish.

What else don't they care about? Anything that even hints that liberal progressive ideology isn't perfect and that the only smudges in it's purity are those done by evil corporate America-hatin', pollution-lovin' conservative Tea Party, Christian, cross-burnin', racist, women-beating people who aren't like them.

They don't want to talk about how Obama and his FEMA screwed the pooch on Sandy and that even now people don't have power, help or anything. The media would have drug any republican through the street behind a motorcycle if he had abandoned the victims once the election was in the bag. but this is Obama and the media will not report anything that taints him... because he is their creation and the creation of the wealthy, cold-hearted liberal elite who only know one thing - they are right and they will prove it no matter how much it costs everybody but them and no matter who suffers from their policies. They are right and that's that.

Hooray for a number. Today's number is 7.7... I am willing to bet that no matter how many people are actually unemployed and no matter how far the economy descends, the number reported will get better every time it's reported. Just ask the people who aren't starving in North Korea how that works... they aren't real, the numbers in the media are real.

Oh, and for all you "totally awesome 100% right" morons who were crowing about how Obama saved the auto industry. Get to Googling and see how many months of unsold inventory the Big Three currently have rusting in hidden lots all over America.

Fucking Dummies.


Truly, we are all merely unwitting captives watching shadows dance in the light of your truth. I cannot imagine the burden you must shoulder with the weight of such understanding. It is humbling to witness.
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Drew1365 wrote:
Curb your enthusiasm. http://mercatus.org/expert_commentary/labor-force-dropouts-w...]This analysis suggests that celebrations should be curtailed.

Quote:
“There were no obvious signs of labor market slowdown in today’s employment report as is showed modest job growth in November (146,000), roughly in line with the past five month average of 158,000 jobs. Other recent economic data had showed some signs that economic policy uncertainty, particularly the fiscal cliff, might cause businesses to pull back in hiring.

“Disengagement from the labor force does continue to be a problem as participation dropped from 63.8% to 63.6%. Participation remains at a very low level and has dropped by 0.4 percentage point so far this year. Labor force dropouts were entirely responsible for the November decline in the unemployment rate to 7.7%. This widespread disengagement plus the fact that 40% of unemployed have been job hunting for over six months will make for a very, very long road to full labor market recovery.


From the Wikipedia article on the Mercatus Center. Actually, the very first line:
Quote:
The Mercatus Center at George Mason University (GMU) in the United States is a non-profit[1] American market-oriented research, education, and outreach think tank affiliated with the Koch family.
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Mac Mcleod
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But Marc,
I'm sure they are more reliable than the BLS.
 
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Damian
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Drew1365 wrote:
Labor force dropouts were entirely responsible for the November decline in the unemployment rate to 7.7%.

The BLS report states:

"In November, 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier."


and

"Among the marginally attached, there were 979,000 discouraged workers in November, little changed from a year earlier."
 
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Marc P
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Well, you have to admit that their primary assertion was pretty much a right wing wet dream of Obama White House number manipulation, press complicity, and wishful thinking. And a think tank attached to the Koch family is going to have a very specific "reality" that they want to project, so guilt by association is not something I'm going to shy away from here. Any more than you (or I) would hesitate to mistrust at something repeated uncritically from DailyKos or The Telegraph.
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