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Subject: Ridiculous hypothetical: EU "civil war" rss

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Moshe Callen
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OK this is RSP-inspired but if you want to talk about actual RSP stuff, go here or start your own thread please.

I absolutely cannot imagine such a thing really happening,, but let's pretend that the European Union starts breaking up and to preserve it, a shooting war breaks out. Yes, yes, in reality not going to happen; who cares?

Let's say the UK, Greece, Spain and Italy attempt to secede, backed by the United State for no reason in particular. Germany and France go to war to save the EU. The other countries are pro-EU let's say.

Hm... This leaves the pro-EU part too strong. So let's say there's strong objection to the war.

How could we play this out in a game and what would each side's goals be?
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The US would have to be weaker than in current reality (because of the game being in a hypothetic future where they are weaker, or because they are busy somewhere else in the world). You could also say that they decide to stay out of it and let the Europeans fight it out themselves this time, or keep US and Russia as possible reinforcements in case of some chain of events escalating the war.

You might want to make sure there are a few big nations on each side. And maybe spread them out a bit geographically to make a more interesting game. Realism is already not an issue, so you could just throw in any countries you want on either side.
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This depends on who leaves, why, and what are the damages to the rest of the EU. Another variable is how badly the "rest of the EU" is willing to fight to keep the EU together. Wild cards include if withdrawing from the EU affects a country's status with NATO and the fact that both the UK and France have nuclear weapons at their disposal.

It could get quite bad, quite quickly but only if cooler heads don't prevail. Not that hot heads have started a war in Europe any time lately...
 
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A balancer might be the eastern european countries, Poland etc who might be pro EU with Russia intervening on the wide of the anti EU.

Hell if you expand the map having the Ukraine joining the EU being the spark for Russian intervention and kicking off the whole eastern [art of the war might be interesting.
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Something else to keep in mind - most of the 2nd tier EU countries have dramatically cut back their militarists.

For example the Netherlands got rid/mothballed most of their Armour.
 
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Nations in Europe at war with one another? Inconceivable!

(sorry... fun hypothetical - carry on!)
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olivier R
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Because the role of popular mythology american civil war thread wasn't enough?
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I don't think there can be any realistic goals based on how the EU is now; I know this is somewhat the point of the OP. This leaves unrealistic outcomes:

Say the European South gets kicked out of the EU because of horrible fiscal handling and their economies are tanking the entire EU (IMO the most plausible scenario): Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Ireland (their recovery plan makes things worse).

The remaining EU thrives and politically come closer together while the expelled states see their economies fail and see the rise of far right or far left governments; bread riots, etc. they then band together and decide the solution is to form a new EU under their leadership. They are joined by Serbia.

Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Kosovo, and BHa would likely sit this one out as they are surrounded by one side (although in this scenario Serbia's involvement may be reliant on annexing Kosovo (and BH). their primary goal is a war of aggression to conquer and annex, or make puppet states, of the EU.

France and Germany would be the EU "leaders" with Scandinavia, Finland, the Low Countries, Baltic States, Poland, Austria and Romania as the EU side (first goal, rescue / support Romania. Their goal would be initially defensive but may expand to an overall EU Marshal Plan like goal of conquering, reforming, then reintegration.

The UK would sit this one out (for now); as would Turkey (also for now).The Swiss are always neutral, I would expect Iceland and Norway to support the EU though maybe not actively.

United States sits this one out.

Russia may support the southern alliance but would not likely get directly involved. They would likely prosper by selling natural resources to both sides - but will support the southern alliance if they feel they can be a dominant force and that they would win.
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A rather interesting what if scenario. Reminds me of Larry Bond's excellent book from the 90s Cauldron where Britain and the US match off against France and Germany.

As others have stated while unlikely one can never really predict the future and for those interested in a wargame covering modern war in Europe this makes as good a scenario as any. It would be a game I would be interested in myself.

As far as designing something like this I think it would be an incredible challenge. So many variables. With a historical wargame you have history to guide you but here you would be stepping off into the unknown. How effective is the European air defense? How has it's economy effected Greece's military ability? Whose air force in Europe is top notch and who has let their military atrophy? These are all questions a designer would have to answer to some extent to design something like this.
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The EU agreement is ... "a scrap of paper."

(Who can remember THAT?)
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Moshe Callen
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pepe le moko wrote:
Because the role of popular mythology american civil war thread wasn't enough?

I asked people to stay on topic which was about games in that thread. What's your problem?
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Moshe Callen
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Rockhopper01 wrote:
whac3 wrote:
I absolutely cannot imagine such a thing really happening...Yes, yes, in reality not going to happen; who cares?


If you'd have told me back in 1988 when I joined the Marines that I'd ever possibly set foot in Afghanistan, I would have laughed at you.

Never say never.

On the one hand you're right but on the other I'm hoping to keep this light-hearted and not serious.
 
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I don't know, I take it there are no interesting threads in RSP at the moment?
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Moshe Callen
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DarkTori wrote:
I don't think there can be any realistic goals based on how the EU is now; I know this is somewhat the point of the OP. This leaves unrealistic outcomes:

Say the European South gets kicked out of the EU because of horrible fiscal handling and their economies are tanking the entire EU (IMO the most plausible scenario): Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Ireland (their recovery plan makes things worse).

The remaining EU thrives and politically come closer together while the expelled states see their economies fail and see the rise of far right or far left governments; bread riots, etc. they then band together and decide the solution is to form a new EU under their leadership. They are joined by Serbia.

Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Kosovo, and BHa would likely sit this one out as they are surrounded by one side (although in this scenario Serbia's involvement may be reliant on annexing Kosovo (and BH). their primary goal is a war of aggression to conquer and annex, or make puppet states, of the EU.

France and Germany would be the EU "leaders" with Scandinavia, Finland, the Low Countries, Baltic States, Poland, Austria and Romania as the EU side (first goal, rescue / support Romania. Their goal would be initially defensive but may expand to an overall EU Marshal Plan like goal of conquering, reforming, then reintegration.

The UK would sit this one out (for now); as would Turkey (also for now).The Swiss are always neutral, I would expect Iceland and Norway to support the EU though maybe not actively.

United States sits this one out.

Russia may support the southern alliance but would not likely get directly involved. They would likely prosper by selling natural resources to both sides - but will support the southern alliance if they feel they can be a dominant force and that they would win.

Ooh cool. I don't know enough about the European current militaries to know what the forces would be in your scenario but it sounds good.
 
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Operation Glorious Dawn: China liberates the EU nations and gives them all jobs.
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Hungadunga wrote:
Operation Glorious Dawn: China liberates the EU nations and gives them all jobs.
No more months of August on vacation?!
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Step 1) Determine military strength of European countries
Step 2) Design game that balances military strength and geography
Step 3) Create a narrative that fits game
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Moshe Callen
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hqbwk wrote:
Step 1) Determine military strength of European countries
Step 2) Design game that balances military strength and geography
Step 3) Create a narrative that fits game

Would it be a purely conventional war? Would there be economic aspects and presuming so what would they be like?
 
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whac3 wrote:
hqbwk wrote:
Step 1) Determine military strength of European countries
Step 2) Design game that balances military strength and geography
Step 3) Create a narrative that fits game

Would it be a purely conventional war? Would there be economic aspects and presuming so what would they be like?


This is the wargames forum, not the economics games forum.
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Almost 25 posts so far and not one's mentioned Battlefield: Europe?
Grab it and go to town!
The justifications for the scenarios in that game are about as good as you'll get.
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whac3 wrote:

Ooh cool. I don't know enough about the European current militaries to know what the forces would be in your scenario but it sounds good.


If you wanted something balanced the south would need support from Russia, or throw Turkey in on their side. Or Throw the UK on the side of the EU, and Russia on the side of the South.

The border between the two sides makes it interesting, the attackers would have to cross the Pyrenees, Alps, and Carpathians.
 
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Why ridiculous and hypothetical? As I recall, they did it twice in a big way last century and then spent a lot of time staring at each other in preparation for a third go for most of the rest of the century.

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Once upon a time, I played a playtest version of Canadian Civil War. Perhaps this would be similar.
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whac3 wrote:
DarkTori wrote:
I don't think there can be any realistic goals based on how the EU is now; I know this is somewhat the point of the OP. This leaves unrealistic outcomes:

Say the European South gets kicked out of the EU because of horrible fiscal handling and their economies are tanking the entire EU (IMO the most plausible scenario): Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Ireland (their recovery plan makes things worse).

The remaining EU thrives and politically come closer together while the expelled states see their economies fail and see the rise of far right or far left governments; bread riots, etc. they then band together and decide the solution is to form a new EU under their leadership. They are joined by Serbia.

Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Kosovo, and BHa would likely sit this one out as they are surrounded by one side (although in this scenario Serbia's involvement may be reliant on annexing Kosovo (and BH). their primary goal is a war of aggression to conquer and annex, or make puppet states, of the EU.

France and Germany would be the EU "leaders" with Scandinavia, Finland, the Low Countries, Baltic States, Poland, Austria and Romania as the EU side (first goal, rescue / support Romania. Their goal would be initially defensive but may expand to an overall EU Marshal Plan like goal of conquering, reforming, then reintegration.

The UK would sit this one out (for now); as would Turkey (also for now).The Swiss are always neutral, I would expect Iceland and Norway to support the EU though maybe not actively.

United States sits this one out.

Russia may support the southern alliance but would not likely get directly involved. They would likely prosper by selling natural resources to both sides - but will support the southern alliance if they feel they can be a dominant force and that they would win.

Ooh cool. I don't know enough about the European current militaries to know what the forces would be in your scenario but it sounds good.


One question: With so many of these countries on the verge of bankruptcy, who pays for the war?
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France + Germany vs. seceding UK, Spain, Greece and Italy...

The burden to act falls on France and Germany are facing the prospect of a multi-front war for which they are ill-prepared. A cross channel invasion of the UK would take years to prepare, much as the Normandy invasions 70 years earlier. The American affinity for the UK would be another reason to avoid going directly after Britain. One semi-rational basis for Fr. and Ger. proceeding would be to assume that if they demonstrate their seriousness the other countries will back down.

A primary question to answer about this hypothetical is what would the US allow? A (very) brief investigation suggests that the US has roughly 5 times the air-superiority strength of France and Germany combined. I think we have to assume the US (plus seceding states) would be able to easily dominate the air, if they were so inclined. I also think it is virtually impossible to conduct a conventional ground campaign without controlling the skies above it.


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