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Subject: CNN sucks at maths rss

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Erik Henry
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While I'd agree that the answer to:

"What are the odds of A and B happening on the same day, given that we already know for a fact that A is happening on that day?"

are just the odds of B happening on that day.

But that's pretty uninteresting and not, I think, what CNN was saying.
 
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rico
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Also depends on whether or not one of the asteroids appeared on a Tuesday.
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Erik Henry
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spoon wrote:
Also depends on whether or not one of the asteroids appeared on a Tuesday.

What if I show you that a goat fell to earth on Wednesday. Do you want to change your answer?
 
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PomInNZ wrote:
Unbelievable how bad the media is at maths. I read a CNN article claiming the odds against an asteroid flying by Earth on the same day a large meteor hit Earth were 100,000,000 to 1. This is arrant nonsense. The odds against picking a random day in the future without doing any research and both these things happening on that day might be that high, but this wasn't what happened. The arrival of the asteroid was a known fixed date, it wasn't random. The only probability required is the probability of a large meteor randomly hitting earth on a given date, which is around 1 in 25000 - thats hardly a miracle, just a regular unlikely event, thats all, literally millions of things happen every day with a much higher improbability.


With such an accute skill of observing mathematical errors, the long winter evenings must just fly by for you. By the way, doesn't this topic rather belong in Chit Chat? Or am I missing some religious, sexual, or political implication?
 
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Chad Ellis
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spoon wrote:
Also depends on whether or not one of the asteroids appeared on a Tuesday.


That sounds like a rule for Dragon Poker.
 
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PomInNZ wrote:
The stupidity of major news sources is I feel connected intimately with the P in RSP

Also those who believe the 1 in 100,000,000 number are using it to argue for a religious or conspiracy based 'solution' to the non-existent problem


So-so excuse.
 
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Oh my God They Banned Kenny
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Not that I'm defending CNN (global warming causing an increase in asteriods?!?!), but I think what 'sucks' is your probability theory.
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Christopher Dearlove
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PomInNZ wrote:
The odds against of event B happening on the day that event A has already happened equals the odds of event B.


If events A and B are independent. Really important to always keep that in sind, and included if making categorical statements.

Now these events are, according to people who have looked into it, independent (as close as matters). But I suspect people's reasoning went "that's quite long odds assuming independence, were they independent? - checks orbital data - yes, OK, one of those coincidences, lots of things happen". Which is reasonable.

(Long odds here means, long a priori odds of something that then happened, if you want to nitpick.)
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Cyrus the Great
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That's like saying the odds of rolling a 12 on 2d6 are 1 in 6 because after you roll one six, the probability of the second die being a six is 1 in 6.
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CNN was simply saying that a combination of such events--a near-Earth flyby of a large asteroid and an actual strike by a large meteorite--would happen about once every 100 million days given a meaningfully large observation period. Which is to say, if you plan on seeing another such coincidence, you'll most likely need to live another 200,000-300,000 years.

You're just willfully disregarding their intent in order to blather about an entirely different probability that is trivially obvious.
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William Boykin
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But I heard that a blonde teenaged girl got hit by the meteor!!

We have to DO SOMETHING!!

Bring in the United Nations!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-15/armageddon-not-in-t...

Not one more blonde teenaged prom queen should ever be hit again!!

(Wait- it was actually just some ugly Russians?

Well never mind then.)



Darilian
 
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