[Comment: 8 game turns left. ARVN has 185 replacements. This no longer looks like a guaranteed ARVN victory. ARVN needs to form the hedgehog now, and possibly trade also units in it to NVA replacement losses if NVA attacks it, to keep enough replacements for the survival of the Saigon stack. NVA is very poor in replacements too. And extremely poor in units - the horrible replacement losses since entering in Spring 1972 have prevented it from building much strength. ARVN has traded units and replacements to keep three strong NVA divisions and half of NVA artillery stranded in the II corps for a long while.]
Hau Nghia -5 (FF, NVA, VC)
Tuyen Duc -3 (NVA, VC)
Kontum -6 (VC, CC)
Quang Tri -3 (VC, CC)
Phu Bon -5 (NVA, VC, CC)
Phu Yen -2 (NVA, VC)
Kien Phong -3 (VC, CC)
Quang Tin -7 (VC, CC)
Tay Ninh -18 (FF, NVA, VC, CC)
Dinh Tuong -1 (VC)
Chau Doc -8 (VC, CC)
Khanh Hoa -1 (VC)
Quang Nam -6 (VC, CC)
Vinh Long -1 (VC)
An Giang -4 (VC, CC)
Quang Ngai -3 (VC, CC)
Binh Dinh -4 (VC, CC)
Thua Thien -11 (VC, CC)
Hau Nghia loses 1, Phuoc long gains 1, Quang Tin loses 1, Tay Ninh loses 2, Vinh Long loses 1, An Giang loses 1.
SVN lost 5, at 249 now. NLF population at 111.
No strategic war.
The disloyal IV corps leaders is replaced at last. The new leader is a B3, loyalty 13. The disloyal Marine leader stays.
No coup or instability.
SVN loses 7 morale, at 133 now. (No more positive column shift for pacifiation.) "A" leaders gain 1 loyalty.
US loses 4 morale, at 291 now.
NVN gains 39 morale, at 1228, 39 commitment available.
ARVN buys 3 ac battalions. Supplies at 87.
NVN disbands 2 mechanized regiments, HQ and artillery. (1st division). This gives -13 commitment, used for 39 replacements.
NVN upgrades 4 regiments on the trail to mechanized (8). a VC HQ (6 supplies, 2 recruits) (1). 6 VC replacements (6 supplies, 2 recruits) (1). And 87 replacements (29). 5 supply conduits to harass ARVN movement from the II Corps to Saigon (10 supplies). NLF supplies at 9. 142 NVA replacements available. 3 commitment promised for trail supply for the next season. NLF draft is at 711.
Six regiments and a HQ exit the trail.
ARVN effectiveness (a roll of 4): IV corps, Chief of Staff and 8 divisions are effective.
ARVN Repl 185
VC Repl 6
NVA Repl 142
Air avail 136, total 136
VC patrols two regiments to slow down the retreat of the ARVN 25th division, the next target for massive bombardment and/or an attack.
The ARVN 25th division (with a regiment from the 1st division and two artillery units) decides to move towards Saigon, to avoid bombardment. And, to step on a VC regiment, it does it with a security operation.
25 ground + 32 artillery vs 6 ground + 28 artillery. 38 air and free fire push VC to 76 column, and give a +3 modifier.
43 vs 76 at +3: 3/10, the regiment evaporates, ARVN loses 3 replacements. [The large amount of air also guards against ARVN losses, because of the +3 modifier.]
The 25th division reaches the hex adjacent to the Gia Dinh border.
The ineffective 23rd division in Phu Yen moves to Khanh Hoa, it can't get further south because of VC in the roadsides.
The 7th division which is being bypassed by NVA in Tuyen Duc decides it needs to stomp on 3/711 and remain in that area, to actually block NVA from driving towards Saigon.
19+26 vs 7+23, 23 air and free fire means 31 vs 56 at +2: 4/5, a lost air point. Again: 2/6. Again: 4/5. ARVN decides to stop, and returns to the clear hex. It should have just strategically moved through the regiment, getting outside of bombardment range, it seems now.
The Marine division moves to the Gia Dinh border, and the 5th occupies the swamps within medium artillery range from Saigon. The 21st arrives adjacent to Saigon too.
The NVA 711th and 735th with artillery could bombard the ARVN 7th division for maybe 10 ARVN replacements. Or, they could drive past it through wooded rough - not getting very far, but getting between Saigon and the 7th division. If they drive forward, they might be able to contribute to the attack on Saigon for a couple of seasons. Should they now destroy 5% of the remaining ARVN replacements, or try to get maybe four turns of bombardment vs the Saigon stack?
~10 ARVN replacements is tempting. But, NVA will take the long term view. If it now does not bypass the 7th division, the 7th will move 4 or so hexes toward Saigon and block NVA again. There are 22 hexes to Saigon - NVA would run out of time.
It bypasses the 7th leaving it stranded. 3 artillery, HQ and 1 mechanized regiment drive through Bao Luc. The ARVN infantry battalion is not interested, it is ineffective.
Two more regiments and a HQ do likewise. And, two regiments, infantry and mechanized, attack Bao Luc.
15+18 vs 2+2RF+1 - ARVN does not commit air. 14 vs 14 at +4: 0/1. ARVN takes the battalion as a casualty. Not worth it to continue with mechanized pursuit starting soon.
NVA bombards the 25th division stack with 3 HQs: 9 ARVN replacements.
NLF attacks the 25th division stack: 4 mechanized regiments, 4 artillery and 7 HQs.
32 + 66 vs 25 + 37. 31 air points and free fire to push NLF to 100 column, 100 vs 76 at -1: 13/8, 1 air point. The 25th division stack retreats to the other side of Saigon to avoid another attack.
NVA pours in from Cambodia.
The remaining 44 air bombard NVA on the open terrain: 8 NVA replacements, 3 air points.
Long range artillery in Saigon bombards NVA in open: 4 NVA replacements.
Medium range artillery in Saigon bombards NVA in -1 terrain: 4 NVA replacements.
Short range artillery outside of Saigon fires at NVA in open: 6 NVA replacements.
The rest of ARVN artillery nearby fires at NVA in open: 2 NVA replacements.
Losses in the 1st turn: 53 NVA, 30 ARVN replacements, 1 VC regiment, 1 ARVN infantry battalion, 5 air points, 1 captured capital.
No holding or patrolling. ARVN 7th division moves towards Saigon through the coastal provinces, reaching Binh Thuan. The ineffective 23rd division reaches Binh Thuan too.
NVA/VC fires at Kiem Chuong 3 times: ARVN armored battalion and ac battalion destroyed. VC captures Kiem Chuong.
NVA fires at a regiment of the 5th 2 times: 1 ARVN replacement.
2 VC HQs fire at ARVN marines: 4 ARVN replacements.
7 NVA HQs fire at ARVN marines: 11 ARVN replacements.
NVA mechnized regiments fire at ARVN: 7 ARVN replacements.
NVA fires at Phu Cuong: 2 ARVN replacements.
VC occupation troops in 1st corps move to south, to re-educate the stubborn peasents in the not yet fully loyal provinces.
VC occupies Bao Luc. NVA 711th and 735th division with 3 artillery move to Bien Hoa.
Air strikes for 31 NVA replacements, 5 air points.
ARVN bombards for 35 NVA replacements.
Losses in the 2nd turn: 66 NVA replacements, 25 ARVN replacements, 1 ARVN armored battalion, 1 ARVN ac battalion. 5 air points, 1 captured capital.
Total losses in Summer 1974: 119 NVA, 55 ARVN replacements, 1 VC regiment, 1 ARVN infantry battalion, 1 ARVN ac battalion, 1 ARVN armored battalion, 10 air points, 2 captured capitals.
At the end of the season:
US Morale: 291
US Commitment: 307
NVN Morale: 1228
NVN Commitment: 1228
SVN Morale: 133
SVN Draft Level: 287
SVN Population: 249
NLF Draft Level: 711
NLF Population: 111
NLF Supply Pool: 9
ARVN supplies: 87
ARVN has 130 replacements left. 3 seasons, 6 turns, to go.
It's going to be close, I can't wait.