[Comment: NVA lost 66 replacements in the second half of Summer 1974, just to air attacks and bombardments. And promised 3 commitment for supplies. It can only purchase 108 new replacements this season, if it uses the 36 free commitment left for replacements. That would be a total of 131 replacements, as 23 survived the last season.
This is bad. Some more luck in ARVN bombardments could easily be worth 140 NVA replacements in the Fall - meaning 9 regiments could die from single hits after NVA runs out of replacements. NVA has to withdraw more units for commitment, to be able to purchase more replacements. Just like the last season, but now all of these units to be withdrawn could actually have contributed to the fight. Unlike the already withdrawn 1st division, which was blocked by ARVN.
But first, just to record it, the no longer meaningful pacification.]
Binh Duong -5 (FF, NVA)
Hau Nghia -9 (FF, NVA, VC, CC)
Tuyen Duc -7 (FF, VC, CC)
Binh Thuan -1 (VC)
Kontum -6 (VC, CC)
Quang Tri -3 (VC, CC)
Long Khanh -1 (VC)
Phu Bon -3 (VC, CC)
Phu Yen -1 (VC)
Kien Phong -3 (VC, CC)
Quang Tin -13 (VC, CC)
Tay Ninh -4 (NVA, CC)
Dinh Tuong -1 (VC)
Bien Hoa -4 (NVA)
Chau Doc -6 (VC, CC)
Khanh Hoa -1 (VC)
Quang Nam -4 (VC, CC)
Vinh Long -1 (VC)
An Giang -4 (VC, CC)
Quang Ngai -3 (VC, CC)
Binh Dinh -5 (VC, CC)
Thua Thien -5 (VC, CC)
Hau Nghia lost 1, Tuyen Duc lost 1, Quang Tin lost 2, Vinh Binh gained 1, Vinh Long lost 1, Quang Ngai lost 1.
SVN lost 5 population, at 244. NLF population at 116.
No strategic war.
The disloyal marine leader (B2) is replaced by an A4, loyalty 10.
No coup or instability.
SVN morale drops by -7 to 126. "C" leaders gain a loyalty. (They are now all at loyalty 13.)
US morale drops by -4 to 287.
NVN morale rises by 39 to 1267. 39 commitment available.
SVN purchases an ac battalion and an armored battalion for 3 supplies. 84 supplies remain.
NVN withdraws 3 infantry regiments for -9 commitment. 48 commitment available. (3) is sent for 33 trail supplies, as promised. (45) purchases 135 replacements for a total of 158 replacements.
ARVN effectiveness roll is a 4. IV Corps, Chief of Staff and 7 divisions are effective.
ARVN Repl 130
VC Repl 6
NVA Repl 158
Air avail 126, total 126
Thieu decides that the safety of Saigon is the single most important goal for his government. IV Corps is stripped of the remaining garrisons (105 mm artillery, armor and ac battalions.) They start the long drive towards Saigon, abandoning capitals. A few of them reach Saigon this turn.
ARVN 7th division reaches Long Khanh. The roadsides are full of scary VC, slowing it down.
ARVN 23rd is too ineffective to enter the III Corps. But it relieves a 155 mm artillery, which enters Long Khanh.
ARVN 3rd, ineffeftive, still moves as far as it can.
ARVN Parachute division has HQ and two regiments in the III corps. They move to the capital of Binh Duong. This causes two incidental attacks against two moving stacks, with heavy NVA support.
After the smoke has cleared, 21 air points have been used, 18 ARVN, 9 NVA replacements and 1 air point have been lost.
Armor and armored cavalry from Saigon are distributed to the adjacent ARVN stacks, to absorb casualties.
A number of regiments and armored battalions occupy the road leading to the IV Corps, to prevent NVA from cutting off the reinforcements arriving from the south. [This is reasonably safe - the NVA artillery is not in range of them, and it won't follow, as it has targets in range.]
NVA bombards the 9th division in Bien Hoa. 9th has only a 50% chance of being effective (now it is not). It might not be able to reach Saigon - and if it is ineffective, it can't even bombard back. It is denied replacements. The entire division is destroyed.
Bombardment continues against the good 25th division: 5 ARVN replacements.
Attacking ARVN under the umbrella of the Saigon artillery base would be very expensive - and it would allow ARVN to avoid committing much air in the defense. Meanwhile bombarding is effective enough. More is coming.
20 more bombardment attacks destroy 2 armored battalions, 2 ac battalions, 1 infantry battalion and 30 replacements. A single attack does typically about 2 hits.
VC captures 9 more capitals, but cannot occupy more than 5 of them. VC battalions move towards Saigon. Two already held capitals are abandoned.
NVA allows operations to ARVN.
ARVN withdraws all uncommitted defending units which are more than 1 hex from Saigon adjacent to it, or to Saigon itself. This will allow a turn of less casualties, as some of the NVA artillery and HQs will then be out of range.
ARVN fires at NVA.
14 attacks: 20 replacements.
The remaining air strikes at NVA: 19 replacements, 7 air points.
Losses on the 1st turn: 48 NVA, 50 ARVN replacements. The entire ARVN 9th division, 2 ARVN armored battalions, 2 ARVN ac battalions, 1 ARVN infantry battalion and 8 air points. 9 captured capitals.
An NVA infantry regiment and a VC battalion patrol, otherwise the ARVN 7th division could hit an NVA artillery base with a Security Operation.
The reinforcements from the IV Corps arrive. The ARVN 7th division approaches close to Saigon.
VC 8th division HQ fires at Saigon. The Battle for Saigon has started! 2 armored battalions, 1 ac battalion destroyed. (Saigon is highly stacked now - the VC HQ was the only NLF unit in range to hit it with a bombardment attack.)
More bombardment follows.
12 attacks: 4 ac battalions, 1 armored battalion, 10 ARVN replacements. Not much - NVA needs to move forward, towards the ARVN guns, in order to be in range for Winter 1974. NVA does so.
VC captures 4 more capitals, reoccupies 3 and leaves 3.
27 bombardment attacks, 31 NVA replacements.
Air strikes, 31 NVA replacements, 6 air points.
Losses on the 2nd turn: 62 NVA, 10 ARVN replacements, 3 ARVN armored battalions, 6 ARVN ac battalions, 6 air points, 4 captured capitals.
Total losses in Fall 1974: 110 NVA, 60 ARVN replacements, the entire ARVN 9th division, 5 ARVN armored battalions, 8 ARVN ac battalions, 1 ARVN infantry battalion, 14 air points, 13 captured capitals.
At the end of the season:
US Morale: 287
US Commitment: 307
NVN Morale: 1267
NVN Commitment: 1267
SVN Morale: 126
SVN Draft Level: 287
SVN Population: 244
NLF Draft Level: 711
NLF Population: 116
NLF Supply Pool: 42
ARVN supplies: 84
ARVN has 70 replacements left. 2 seasons, 4 turns, to go.
Edits: wrong corps mentioned for paras, fixed NLF supply count.
- Last edited Sat Apr 13, 2013 5:52 am (Total Number of Edits: 2)
- Posted Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:37 pm
A photo finish.