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The Resistance: Avalon» Forums » General

Subject: Played first time, need some advice rss

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Roger Komesu
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Ok, I've read some articles here on the geek , but they doesn't seem to help on what I'm looking for

Yesterday we played 3 games of 6 players
All games the good guys won! With no chance to the bad side!

All went like

1 round, pick 2 players - > voting pass - > sucess
2 round, pick previously 2 players + 1 -> voting pass -> sucess
3 round, pick previously 3 players +1 -> voting pass -> fail
4 round, pick round 2 players -> voting pass -> sucess

so I was thinking

There is no real motivation to reject the first team

If you are on good side there is still 3 other good players that you don't know about
If you are on bad side what will you say? "I'm not on the team"? this isn't a strong motivation, and probably will pin you as a spy trying to disrupt things...

If they succeed there is no motivation to reject second team with those 2 players + 1

If you are on good side, those 3 could be the good players, and you don't have any way to say otherwise
If you are on bad side, you can say lot's of "what ifs" but there's no concrete prove to reject the voting

Now if those 2 are success, on the next round

If you are a bad guy, and there is no bad guys on the team, no one will have a good motivation to reject the team, and good will win!

if you are good , you know that the 4th guy is spy, then you reject, the 3 players that went first won't have a good reason to reject the vote, the 4th will accept, majority and the mission will fail


------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, on a 5 turns game, the three firsts really all that luck based for the spies??

Or there are arguments to use that I can't see?
 
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Chris Ferejohn
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You should always reject the first team. The reason is that more information is good for the good guys so the more teams you see people propose the more information you will see. It sounds like you got a little unlucky with the distribution.

One possible tweak is to only have the 4th mission need 2 fails to fail if the bad guys have already won 2.

Also, are you using Merlin? The bad guys should still have a chance to win...
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Clyde W
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Are you playing Avalon or Vanilla Resistance?

Spies got unlucky/played poorly if just Vanilla Resistance. If Avalon, you should expect to "lose" as a spy but in the process determine Merlin.
 
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Ian Toltz
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In a 5-player game...

Given that you are Good, and you're not on the proposed first mission, there's a 2/4 * 1/3 = 1/6 chance of the proposed team being both of the other good people.

I don't know about you, but I don't like those odds.

Just in general, choosing 2 people at random from among the 5, there's a 3/5 * 2/4 = 3/10 chance that both of the people selected are good.

It sucks, as an evil person, when they manage to get a first team without an evil person, but that's both uncommon (without shenanigans) and not insurmountable.
 
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Roger Komesu
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in a 5-player game I think it would make sense, in a 6 players not so much...


I guess I'll have to give the game another spin, but with another group... since my current didn't really like it =/
 
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Clyde W
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When introducing this game, you must play at least 3 times in a row. Ask the group to try again.
 
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Pasi Ojala
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Get the Imperial Assault Campaign module for Vassal from http://www.vassalengine.org/wiki/Module:Star_Wars:_Imperial_Assault
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(D*mn, lost the text to an errant keystroke.. I'll try to recreate it.)

In my opinion the group really makes the game. You have to dive in, explore the game, and discover how to play it. It takes only one game to understand the game mechanics, but you will be lost the first 5 or so games. This is where the group comes alive (or doesn't).

It is a challenge, and an intellectual exercise to start effectively from scratch.

You start to think how to convey information through talk and voting, and at the same time try to decide what the other players are trying to communicate to you, and if they are sincere, misdirecting or bluffing. What would I do if I were a bad/good guy, and does it match what I'm seeing from others? How do I veil my communication from the other team? I'm not Merlin, how do I distract the minions from guessing the actual Merlin?

Here the meta-game becomes part of the game, and exactly here the group decides how the game is played. With the wrong group the result falls flat. With the correct group the game really shines.

 
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Roger Komesu
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clydeiii wrote:
When introducing this game, you must play at least 3 times in a row. Ask the group to try again.


we played 3 times, all started and ended exactly the same!

The spies didn't felt like they had a good reason to reject votes!
 
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Dorkmaster Flek
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Well the spies have a good reason to reject the vote if the team doesn't have any spies on it. True, they don't want to out themselves as spies, but how do the good guys know that all the players on the mission are actually good?

You seem to be saying that you managed to get all 3 players on the first two missions to be good guys consistently. Picking two players out of six with four good guys to choose from, that gives you a 40% chance that the first leader will both a) be a good guy, and b) pick another good guy to go on the first mission with them. If the next leader is also a good guy, and they send the same two people, and they have a 50% chance of picking one of the two remaining good guys. That means the chance of getting all good guys on the first two missions in a six player game picking randomly is 20%.

The chances of this happening three times in a row is miniscule. If the first proposed team is getting approved, no questions asked, I would expect the spies to win most of the time! Rejecting teams and having more team votes should help the resistance because you get more information. Everything I know about this game says something is going wrong here. Are your spies really bad at bluffing?
 
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Clyde W
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badassbr wrote:
clydeiii wrote:
When introducing this game, you must play at least 3 times in a row. Ask the group to try again.


we played 3 times, all started and ended exactly the same!

The spies didn't felt like they had a good reason to reject votes!
They just need to make up reasons. The best reason is, "I don't trust you. I wanna be on this mission."

But I also find it hard to believe that the rebels were constantly picking clean teams each time. How'd they do that?
 
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Pasi Ojala
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clydeiii wrote:
They just need to make up reasons. The best reason is, "I don't trust you. I wanna be on this mission."


Everyone knows they are not bad guys, so everyone should want to be on a mission! If they don't protest (at least indirectly or discreetly), then they are poor rebels/loyalists or resigned spies/minions.

"I always vote down teams I'm not on." (Except the times I actually don't vote against.) is one tactic.

 
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Robert Stewart
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DorkmasterFlek wrote:
The chances of this happening three times in a row is miniscule.


0.8% - for every 125 six-player groups that play the game three or more times, you'd expect 1 of them to have that happen on their first three games.

So the chances of it happening to someone are pretty good, even though the chances of it happening to any given playgroup are pretty bad.
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Dorkmaster Flek
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Actually, I think it's even less than a 20% chance of the first two missions being all good guys. You also have to take into account the chances of the second leader also being a good guy, which is 3/5. So that figures a 12% chance overall that the first two leaders are good guys, and they pick all good guys for the first two missions. If this happens three times in a row, that's a 0.1728% chance. That's 1 in every approx. 579 groups.

My point is, math is fun. Also, the chances of this happening repeatedly are extremely low. If every team vote is getting approved with no questions asked, the spies should be winning most often.
 
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Robert Stewart
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DorkmasterFlek wrote:
Actually, I think it's even less than a 20% chance of the first two missions being all good guys. You also have to take into account the chances of the second leader also being a good guy, which is 3/5. So that figures a 12% chance overall that the first two leaders are good guys, and they pick all good guys for the first two missions. If this happens three times in a row, that's a 0.1728% chance. That's 1 in every approx. 579 groups.

My point is, math is fun. Also, the chances of this happening repeatedly are extremely low. If every team vote is getting approved with no questions asked, the spies should be winning most often.


Okay, 40% that the first two leaders are good guys. Given that they're both good guys, that they each send themselves, and that the second leader sends both people from the first mission, the chances of both missions having no spies between them are exactly the chances of the three on the second mission being loyal. That's 40% for the two leaders, times 50% that the third person is loyal, giving 20% overall.

All you're doing is going through a convoluted process to pick three out of six people at random, trying to avoid the two baddies - 4/6*3/5*2/4 = 1/5

If I were in a group that had it happen to them three times in a row, I'd be mildly suspicious that something was up; hearing that a group somewhere out there had it happen to them three times in a row is not at all surprising.

Something statistically significant at the 5% level when taken over an hour should happen to you most days; a 5% day will come up every few weeks, and most people will have 4-5 5% years in their life...


Now that a coincidence has been noticed with this group, we can start collecting statistically relevant data - if their next three games all end with the good guys winning the first three missions, then that'd be surprising.
 
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Alejandro F
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You didnt mention about Merlin. A clean team is very possible if Merlin is the leader. However, a blunt play like that, likely will finish with a sharp dagger in Merlin´s body. Are you saying that you pick a clean team three times in a row and Merlin didn't bought it al least one time?
 
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Alejandro F
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Friman wrote:

Exactly: either they are incredibly experienced spies that have silently coordinated and posses very talented acting skills, either THERE'S A SPY IN THE PROPOSED TEAM AND AT LEAST ONE OF THE TWO LEADERS IS A RESISTANCE MEMBER.


And, for the same price, the assassin knows (acting excluded) that neither of them was Merlin.
 
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Clyde W
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If we're playing Avalon, the rules of voting change completely.
 
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