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Subject: Super Bowl XLVII - '12 NFL Season Replay Results - Data-Driven Football rss

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Ron Pisarz, Jr.
United States
Glen Allen
Virginia
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Saturday mornings are reserved for online Paydirt - Data-Driven Football style, and today was no exception! My friend Scott and I just completed replaying the '12 NFL Season. The format we use is each of us chooses four teams from a conference. We choose a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place team (one from each division), and we replay the entire schedule for those teams. My teams were BUF (4th), PIT (3rd), IND (2nd), DEN (1st). Scott had ARZ, DAL, MIN, ATL. All sixteen games for each of these teams were played head to head. In total we played 119 games of the 256 games on the schedule (almost 50% -- and all playoff games were played head to head regardless of team ownership). Let me share the Super Bowl results from today and to close I will highlight some statistics. The match-up arguably showcases the most likely conference representatives: my Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers.

Road to the Super Bowl
Many matchups were similar to actual playoff games, BAL vs NE, BAL vs DEN, SEA vs WSH, ATL vs SF, GB vs SF
AFC
Three of four division winners matched actual results (HOU 12-4, NE 11-5, DEN* 14-2) with the Steelers* winning the AFC North in lieu of the Ravens. Both AFC wild card slots were won by different teams. The Colts* ended 6-10 (quite possibly one of the worst 11-5 times of all-time) and lost their slot to the upstart Miami Dolphins who went 10-6 (+3 games over actual) due to outstanding defensive play. The Bengals under-performed and their wild card slot was taken by the 9-7 Ravens. So here is the AFC seeding:
1. DEN (14-2)
2. HOU (12-4)
-------------
3. NE (11-5)
4. PIT (11-5)
5. MIA (10-6)
6. BAL (9-7)

Wild Card Round
=========================
MIA 19 - PIT 20, Roethlisberger 25/37, 321 yds, 2 TDs, 0 Sacks, 0 INTs
BAL 34 - NE 19, BAL running game combined for 167 yds on 31 carries, 5.4 yds/rush

Divisional Round
=========================
BAL 17 - DEN 23 OT, Manning 30/51 337 yds, 3 TDs
PIT 31 - HOU 21, score was 28-7 with 12 min. remaining, PIT defense held HOU to 326 yds most of which came late

Conference Championship
=========================
PIT 7 - DEN 38, the Broncos came to play Manning 23/34, 204 yds, Roethlisberger 20/41, 134 yds, 4 INTs, 5 sacks, 0 TDs

NFC
Five of Six playoff teams were identical to actual results with all four divisions having the same champion. The 8-8 Vikings* lost their wild card spot to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here are the NFC seeds:
1. SF (14-2)
2. ATL* (12-4)
-------------
3. WSH (11-5)
4. GB (11-5)
5. TB (10-6)
6. SEA (10-6)

Wild Card Round
=========================
TB 28 - GB 34 OT, despite the close score GB dominated, 504 total yds, Rodgers 41/58, 430 yds.
SEA 9 - WSH 13, a defensive struggle with WSH scoring ten 4th quarter points to eek out the win

Divisional Round
=========================
GB 15 - SF 34, eerily similar to actual game, GB could not stop SFs running game 157 yds. on 38 att.; GB 281 tot. yds.
WSH 13 - ATL 25, Ryan 25/37 234 yds

Conference Championship
=========================
ATL 17 - SF 30, Ryan's worst game of the replay 24/47, 234 yds, 3 INTs; SF 397 yds. of total offense, 181 yds. rushing

Super Bowl XLVII
Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers
After guiding the Broncos to a 14-2 season my expectations were to win the Super Bowl. After Scott's Falcons just lost the conference championship I had the mental advantage since I'm sure he was not happy about the loss. The opening quarter has the 49ers dominating with an opening drive TD and a 32 yd FG late in the quarter, 10-0 SF. Manning's rhythm was not there and the Broncos offense was horrible. Manning finally got going in the 2nd quarter with an early 16 yd. TD pass, 10-7 SF. Both defenses continued to dominate not yield field position or points. My Broncos started gaining momentum as the game went on and just before halftime Manning is firing on all cylinders driving the length of the field to inside the 49er 10 yard line with :40 seconds remaining and disaster struck. A screen pass gone awry turns into a pick six, 91 yard INT return, 17-7, SF as the half concludes.

The 49ers extend their lead to 24-7 on a 5 yd. TD run by Gore on their opening possession. From that point on it was all Denver. A FG late in the 3rd had the score 24-10, SF as the 4th quarter starts. The Broncos score 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter stealing all the momentum and send the game to OT. Manning marches down the field after winning the toss and throws the game-winning TD, 30-24 Denver! What a finish! Here is the box score:

2012 SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS 24 2012 DENVER BRONCOS 30

Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
2012 SF 10 7 7 0 0 24
2012 DEN 0 7 3 14 6 30

SF DEN
Total Net Yds 225 482
Total Plays 53 83
Avg. Gain 4.2 5.8

Net Yards Rushing 79 125
Rushes 23 30
Avg. Gain 3.4 4.2
Long 11 17
TDs 2 0

Net Yards Passing 146 357
Comp-Att-Int 17-25-1 31-52-1
Avg. Gain 4.9 6.7
Long 27 61
TDs 0 4
Sacked-Yards Lost 5-30 1-11

First Downs 17 30
Rushing 6 7
Passing 9 20
Penalty 2 3

Punts-Avg. 5-50.2 2-46.0
Inside 20 2 1

Return Yards 136 17
Punt Rets-Yards 0-0 3-10
Kick Rets-Yards 2-45 1-7
INT Rets - Yards 1-91 1-0
TDs 1 0

Field Goals Made-Att 1-1 1-2

Third Down Eff 5-12 5-16
Fourth Down Eff 1-1 5-5

Penalties-Yards 8-54 3-47
Fumbles-Lost 1-0 1-1
Time of Possession 29:10 36:50


SCORING SUMMARY
---------------- Quarter 1 ----------------
05:00 SF 1 yd. run TD 7 - 0

12:10 SF 32 yd. attempt FG 10 - 0

---------------- Quarter 2 ----------------
00:10 DEN 16 yd. pass TD 10 - 7

14:20 SF 91 yd. int ret TD 17 - 7

---------------- Quarter 3 ----------------
06:00 SF 5 yd. run TD 24 - 7

13:20 DEN 36 yd. attempt FG 24 - 10

---------------- Quarter 4 ----------------
03:20 DEN 4 yd. pass TD 24 - 17

11:40 DEN 12 yd. pass TD 24 - 24

---------------- Quarter OT ----------------
06:00 DEN 16 yd. pass TD 24 - 30


Let me highlight some final statistics using teams that we played all 16 games for:
Denver Broncos - Offense
Yards/Play Actual: 5.8 Replay: 5.7
Comp% - Actual: 68.4% Replay: 68.2%
TOP - Actual: 31:16 Replay: 31:22 --- yes 6 second differential! Amazing.
3rd down conversion - Actual: 96/213, 45% Replay: 105/215, 48.8%
Rushing - Actual 1832 yds/ 481 atts., 3.8 yds/att Replay: 1606 yds/ 431 atts. 3.7 yds/att.
Passing - Actual 4534 yds/ 588 atts., 37 TDs, 11 INTs, 21 Sacks Replay: 4308 yds/ 595 atts., 49 TDs, 9 INTs, 16 sacks

Most teams have similar statistical correlations. Just enough player influence to change outcomes while preserving realism.

From a points scored perspective here are the bottom three teams:
Actual:
32. Kansas City 211
31. Arizona 250
30. Jacksonville 255

Replay
32. Kansas City 236
31. Jacksonville 250
30. Arizona* 251

Final standings and statistics are available for download for those interested:
www.datadrivenfootball.com/downloads/2012Replay/Final/FinalS...
www.datadrivenfootball.com/downloads/2012Replay/Final/FinalS...

Another exceptional replay complete!

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Roger McKay
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Sounds like fun.

I love Paydirt, but haven't gotten to play in a long time. I actually bought another copy recently (with the 1980 teams), but it is so much easier to play something on the PC than set up a tabletop game and play both sides - even with the excellent solo systems I got out of All-Star Replay.
 
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Matthew Taylor
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The way it SHOULD have been!!! Thanks for this!
 
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Ron Pisarz, Jr.
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Glen Allen
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Yes, the PC game does provide many benefits. Being able to play against a friend or another opponent online is a key feature. The solitaire mode, time savings and statistics tracking improve the game. To play 119 head to head games would take forever. If I had opponents who were local I'd gladly play face to face but they are hard to find.

As a Ravens fan I'm not sure I agree our replay turned out the way it was supposed to be, but I will say Denver was probably the best team last year. I was able to go 14-2 with them and the Patriots were the only team that beat them handily. I think the score was 21-31, but the game was not as close as the score.
 
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