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Subject: Statistical analysis of wizard hands rss

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Jason Webster
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Has anyone done an analysis of Wizard hands??

I.e.) for a 5 card hand what is the easiest bid, on average , to make? A 1 bid, zero bid, 5 bid, etc?
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Fraser
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Back in the days when there were less maps we played every map back to back
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Ooh a little higher, now a bit to the left, a little more, a little more, just a bit more. Oooh yes, that's the spot!
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Doesn't it rather depend on the what the five cards are? In which case you would need a statistical analysis for each and every possible five card hand (of which there would be a lot). My guess is "no" cool
 
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Actually... Jason isn't that far off.

I do indeed think that there is something of use in coming up with some baseline "golden rules" to have in mind. Althou it's true that those rules are far, far behind any situational consideration with a given hand, it can be useful in those cases you don't simply have wizards to rely on that guarantee the bet.

I've found it useful to simply divide the number of cards by the number of players, to have some orientation in what is there to be taken on average, and consider that with 3-4 players, you can calmly bet much higher, and the closer you are to 6 players, the tighter the bet should be.

Let's see what more insights folks have around here! I live wizard and the inactivity on the gamepage is a pitty for such a great game! Keep it going
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Jason Webster
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DarkS0uL wrote:
Actually... Jason isn't that far off.

I do indeed think that there is something of use in coming up with some baseline "golden rules" to have in mind. Althou it's true that those rules are far, far behind any situational consideration with a given hand, it can be useful in those cases you don't simply have wizards to rely on that guarantee the bet.

I've found it useful to simply divide the number of cards by the number of players, to have some orientation in what is there to be taken on average, and consider that with 3-4 players, you can calmly bet much higher, and the closer you are to 6 players, the tighter the bet should be.

Let's see what more insights folks have around here! I live wizard and the inactivity on the gamepage is a pitty for such a great game! Keep it going


I use the same calculation for the average bid too. Just wondering If there was a little more in depth analysis :-)
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Well, in that case some rules of thumb I like to have in mind:

When betting:

- Non trump: count only 11-13 from non trump colors and only one per color, unless you have some lower cards in that suit to keep them safe (or Ns for that matter) so that when that color was played and a wizard or trump has already claimed the trick you have cards to "block" and keep your high cards safe.
In case no trump card is in play (last round or when a N is trump) you might consider a string of 13 down (some holes are acceptable) as points to be made. Just keep in mind your score, if you are leading Wizards will surely be used to stop you, but when not in the lead, people might let you keep it going and racking up some nice points, saving their wizards for hindering the leader.

- Trump: Pretty much any trump card can take a trick, one has to consider how quick he can deplete another color while others might still have cards of that color, so when that suit gets played, you have an auto win. In other words: if you have some low value trump cards, consider betting them as points if you have very few, or better yet none, in at least another color. If you have several cards of all suits, your trump cards lose value and should not be counted on for taking tricks

- Wizards: Needless to say, all Ws are to be counted as wins.


When playing:

First thing is adding up the bets.

- If the total bets is lower than the tricks to be won: avoid winning bets by all means, newcommers might think "what the hell, how cool is that? im winning smoothly! Might as well take the tricks gladly as they come" But there WILL be at least one player losing big time. So don't fear wasting nice 13s, depending on how far off the bet total is, you will be winning with meager 3s in no time.
Well, there is more to it, but a newcommer should certainly keep in mind the fact that when bets are lower, you're playing a whole different game than usual.

So the correct way to play here is wasting away your "middle value" cards of each suit, so that you can still win your target bets with ease, but will be evading winning tricks you didn't order.

- If the total bets is equal than the tricks to be won: in theory everything will pan out just nicely, in practice... more often than not that is also the case! Think of it as a round where everyone judged their hand correctly, and the tricks asked for are exactly the ones to be had. If you find yourself behind, or simply want to risk a bit, you might want to try to steal a trick corresponding to another player with a wizard, and screwing the player after you in turn order by playing a N, forcing him to start. Obviosuly this is only a screw in case he already had met his bet. Generally, Wizards are the way to stir up the balance in these scenarios.

- If the total bets is higher than the tricks to be won: someone has overestimated his hand... pray it wasn't you!
To be honest this is the usual way it is, and also when Wizard is at it's most exciting.

I might expand further at a later point, but for now this must do.
Keep in mind play changes dramatically depending on number of players. 4 player games are much more aggresive, while a 6 player game is as conservative as you can get in wizard!
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