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Subject: Come on Wolves, the Village is kicking your butt! rss

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We have had 15 completed games this year so far, 2 of which were not evil vs good.

Only 4 5 of the games were won by the wolves (27% 33%) and the remaining 9 were won by the Village (60% 53%).

So are the wolves just having bad luck, playing poorly, or are the games unbalanced? (Or is my sample size just too small to mean anything?)

edit: Found out I marked Elftown wrong.
 
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Jared Heath
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I think the latter is more common than people want to accept.
 
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Golden Lotus
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Sorry, been skewing the numbers by being a wolf a lot recently.

I am working on getting them back to an even-keel (see Exodus).
 
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Oh and for a comparison...

In 2005 we had 118 games played.
14 which were not evil vs. good (12%)

The wolves won 47 games (40%)
The Village won 57 games (48%)

That seems fairly even to me it probably is Village higher because of at least a few games that were unbalanced toward good.
 
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SH W
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About balance, I completed moderating 1 game so far.

In the case of the Wannabes, kuchick was an excellent evasive seer.

I cannot judge if the wolves played badly because it seems nobody else could guess who was the seer either.
 
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Chris B
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I'm happy to report that I did my part to give the Wolves a Victory early this year. Despite the fact that I was a villager.
 
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Golden Lotus
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Sybot: we worked well together that game.

I just checked my 2006 games. I actually won my first three (Shadows in the Dark, Scouring of the Shire and Elftown), though one of those I had little to do with it and the other 2 were wolf wins - and one of those was terribly weighted in favor of the wolves.

Since then I have lost 7, yes, SEVEN straight. shake

Hmm, did you say only 4 wolf wins? I was in all those games and two of them were quite weighted in favor of the wolves.

edit: just realized that one of my unlucky seven was my stint as producer in the behind the scenes game. Not sure if that counts.
 
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Jeremy Likens
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Well, does this mean I shouldn't make my games more balanced in the future ?

After all, my game was one of the few Wolf wins this entire year...


Nah, my future Telepath games shouldn't have this problem.
 
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shugyosha wrote:
Sybot: we worked well together that game.

I just checked my 2006 games. I actually won my first three (Shadows in the Dark, Scouring of the Shire and Elftown), though one of those I had little to do with it and the other 2 were wolf wins - and one of those was terribly weighted in favor of the wolves.

Since then I have lost 7, yes, SEVEN straight. shake

Hmm, did you say only 4 wolf wins? I was in all those games and two of them were quite weighted in favor of the wolves.


Well, I could have some of the data wrong. When figuring out who won, I try to skim the end of the thread and figure it out. Not all games are easy to figure out from the Moderator's text.

Was I correct in understanding that Elftown was a wolf win? I have that down as a village win. I also have Shadows in the Dark down as a village win. Is that a wolf win too?

For the record the 4 wolf wins I have are:
The Scouring of the Shire
Rome
Newbie/Short Game - MoonGoddess
Telepahts: Hide and Seek

So do I have an error in my Database?
 
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Brian Rasmussen
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Are you counting Elftown in your totals? I don't think it should count if you are...
 
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shugyosha wrote:

edit: just realized that one of my unlucky seven was my stint as producer in the behind the scenes game. Not sure if that counts.


Behind the Scenes game is counted as one that was not evil vs. good. (The other was Highlander)
 
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Brian Rasmussen
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Melsana wrote:
shugyosha wrote:
Sybot: we worked well together that game.

I just checked my 2006 games. I actually won my first three (Shadows in the Dark, Scouring of the Shire and Elftown), though one of those I had little to do with it and the other 2 were wolf wins - and one of those was terribly weighted in favor of the wolves.

Since then I have lost 7, yes, SEVEN straight. shake

Hmm, did you say only 4 wolf wins? I was in all those games and two of them were quite weighted in favor of the wolves.


Well, I could have some of the data wrong. When figuring out who won, I try to skim the end of the thread and figure it out. Not all games are easy to figure out from the Moderator's text.

Was I correct in understanding that Elftown was a wolf win? I have that down as a village win. I also have Shadows in the Dark down as a village win. Is that a wolf win too?

For the record the 4 wolf wins I have are:
The Scouring of the Shire
Rome
Newbie/Short Game - MoonGoddess
Telepahts: Hide and Seek

So do I have an error in my Database?


Heh, I suppose you could call Elftown a wolf win.
 
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Sean Tompkins
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I think as we've grown better at werewolf playing, the most improved role is the seer. Everyone is much better at providing "cover" for the seer, and it reduces the wolves identifying chances to essentially random. The seer and their reveal is the fulcrum of the game - if the seer can last long enough there is a safe pool and an initial wolf target to build vote histories off of. This means that the wolves HAVE to aim for the seer in their kills... with full role reveals if the wolves don't hit the seer by night 3 their fate is nearly sealed.

Now, I'm sure their are lots of instances of bad wolf play (look at any games I am in - suspected whether innocent or not) - but I find a significant balance issue. The bad news is if you JUST add evils to the mix, one stroke of bad luck in the form of an early seer kill will doom the villagers. There needs to be some form of diluting the seer's power...
 
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Sean McCarthy
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Elftown was a wolf win.

seanp, I think that the problem that the evil side is having with seers is that the supporting evils are not coming out as the seer in larger games. This certainly gives the seer a lot of power.
 
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Jared Heath
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seanp wrote:
I think as we've grown better at werewolf playing, the most improved role is the seer. Everyone is much better at providing "cover" for the seer, and it reduces the wolves identifying chances to essentially random. The seer and their reveal is the fulcrum of the game - if the seer can last long enough there is a safe pool and an initial wolf target to build vote histories off of. This means that the wolves HAVE to aim for the seer in their kills... with full role reveals if the wolves don't hit the seer by night 3 their fate is nearly sealed.

Now, I'm sure their are lots of instances of bad wolf play (look at any games I am in - suspected whether innocent or not) - but I find a significant balance issue. The bad news is if you JUST add evils to the mix, one stroke of bad luck in the form of an early seer kill will doom the villagers. There needs to be some form of diluting the seer's power...


I think sean's point here is the biggest thing that has happened. Safe lists have taken over recently.

I've been considering how a strong penalty to a seer who reveals for safe list reasons only and doesn't have a wolf would affect this phenominon...
 
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SevenSpirits wrote:
Elftown was a wolf win.

seanp, I think that the problem that the evil side is having with seers is that the supporting evils are not coming out as the seer in larger games. This certainly gives the seer a lot of power.

I know when I came out as uncontested Seer it certainly gave me a lot of power.

Shame I was the Sorceror.

Of course there was another game when I came out as uncontested Seer and got lynched, but perhaps we shouldn't mention that.

Oh yes, Melsana, Elftown was a 'wolf' win, as the minority team won the game. Shadows in the Dark was a village win, I just died first day.
 
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John McGeehan
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In face to face play with medium-sized games, generally the wolves win the vast majority of the games. The base game (WVS) is tilted towards the wolves in face to face play. I'd grant that in an online situation, where there is a definite record of everything said/posted to that point, perhaps the villagers might get a slight boost (although infinite wolf PMing could counterbalance that). Also, we have people that have gotten quite experienced at the game - but still, I don't feel like, if it were strictly vanilla, that things should stay that way.

That all said, if we're trying to say "We should have about the same number of wolf wins here as one does in F2F play" then it's not going well - in face to face play, a villager win is hard-earned. Here, a wolf win is. Villager wins are commonplace in comparison. I'd say that in most cases, the games played here are not well balanced - and adding more wolves isn't necessarily the way to balance them. The best way is generally to have fewer good roles, but if we did that we'd end up with just vanilla (or close) games and people would lose interest after a while.

Not sure how to deal with things - but it's an interesting question.

T.
 
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Yeah, after Lauramath came out with her safe list in the Invite Only game, I was sure we were doomed... only 3 places for 2 wolves to hide.. not good odds... but I was able to use my special power to cast doubt in that safe list and add a wolf to the safe list.

We probably could have won that game if Shugyosha wasn't honorable. If he had reniged his word and voted for 7ofAnn we would have won, but as it is... I was happy with the results of the game regardless. We played our best and that is what really matters. (But when it comes to the numbers it was still a village win.)
 
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Jared Heath
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SevenSpirits wrote:
Elftown was a wolf win.

seanp, I think that the problem that the evil side is having with seers is that the supporting evils are not coming out as the seer in larger games. This certainly gives the seer a lot of power.


This would help...it takes a very good player to play aux evil correctly. Too often they wimp out and don't want to get lynched when that is their sole job in the game.

The seer takeover can be attributed to several things:

1 - better seer play
2 - too much info being given to some seers (full role reveal is BAD)
3 - seers that can reveal and live for days due to potions/bodyguards etc.

The last one is the killer. I was in one game where the seer could have revealled Day 1 and lived for 6 days openly due to the bodyguard/deputy/doctor combo that could have been done.

I think moderators need to always fear the unkillable seer. Seers are supposed to find a wolf, reveal, and die. If they have any chance of finding more than one wolf they are not seers, they are super-seers and the wolves should have a counter-balance to off-set them.

I also think everyone should consider a forced seer reveal when they have a hit. In a big game if a seer gets a hit day 1 they freqently don't reveal and "Try For Two". If they get a second hit the game is over...broken really.


 
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Melsana wrote:
Behind the Scenes game is counted as one that was not evil vs. good. (The other was Highlander)

Yes, that one would be difficult to call to either side. I mean Bowman was good but his parrot was definitely vile evil.

So what are the good wins for the year?
 
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The good wins are

Shadows in the Dark
Werewolf Wannabes
Doomtown
The Slaughtered Lamb
Elysia 2
Everest
Invite Only
HMS Defender

Any mistakes there?
 
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Kirk Monsen
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rasattack wrote:
Are you counting Elftown in your totals? I don't think it should count if you are...


It was a valid game .. an unfair game .. but still valid ... and I agree it was lopsided. There should have only been one evil assistant, not two.

-Munch "Elftown 2 will be unfair as well " Wolf
 
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Of the ones I played in:
Shadows... looked very balanced to me.
Doomtown was a little unbalanced towards good.
The Slaughtered Lamb had a small issue come up with the Hunter which was corrected in other newbie/basic games.
Elysia 2 had a safe list problem (I could be biased), so I'd say that was in favor of good too.
Invite Only was if anything tilted towards evil but bad luck and good play gave the village the win.

The other three I didn't play or really look at so I can't comment. But we're not too far off from balanced. The wolves have been a little unlucky at times and time may correct this.
 
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Chris B
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Everest came down to the wire even though fully 1/3 of the starting players were evil in nature. It would have been a wolf victory save one thing that Kima noticed when going back over the voting record, which pointed out all three of the wolves left plain as day.
 
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I think it is very difficult to say whether a single game is balanced from just one run. We know quite well ho to balance plain vanilla games, but once the sprinkles start to come out..... well it gets tasty!

Jared & Tish's work is a great aid, but until the game is run and all the inter-dynamics of the various roles are seen (which cannot be done from a single play) you never really know.

Plus weird things happen and Lady Luck plays here part to the hilt.
 
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