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Subject: Take London in two turns. Odds start at 56% and then go up rss

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wodan wodan
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The strategy that will be discussed allows Germany to take Great Britain the majority of the time. The odds start at 56%. That is if 2 of Germany's fighters are diverted to the sea battle, and 1 of them is destroyed by Russia, and 2 are shot down by AA guns, while the German Battleship misses, and Great Britain and Russia consolidate their fleets, and Great Britain builds as many infantry and tanks as it can it can.

Overall, the battleplan is quite flexible.


Heres the plan:
Turn 1
1. Germany Builds 5 Transports in the Baltic
2. Germany sends its Battleship and Transport off Southern Europe to attack the British Battleship off Gibraltar with support from the 2 nearest fighters and a bomber on Turn 1. Fighters land in western europe.
3. Remaining Fighters land in Western Europe. 2 Of the fighters may land in Eastern Europe,
4. At least 1 infantry and 1 tank (more is better) should be kept in Western Europe or Algeria, and between Western Europe and Germany (+ Algeria which should have no more than a tank and an infantry) there should be 7 Infantry and 7 Tanks
5. Remaining units may moved as needed to first, defend the fighters, and second, to defend against Russia.

Turn 2
1. Germany builds whatever it feels would be effective against Russia.
2. Battleship and Transport off Gibraltar moves to Sea Zone 7 off the southern coast of Great Britain, with Transport picking up a Tank and an Infantry from either Algeria or Western Europe
3. Remaining German Fleet moves to Sea Zone 6, along with the two fighters in Eastern Europe.
4. German transports in Baltic fill up with infantry and tanks from Western Europe and Germany.
5. German transports land 7 Tanks and 7 Infantry in Great Britain. The 4 remaining fighters and bomber join the attack, while the battleship fires a volley.
6. Great Britain falls, and with it the Allies.

Turns 3-End
1. Germany crushes Russia with its newfound resources, then turns its power to power to defeat America, who has been using their resources to fight Japan. Defeat is a matter of time.

There are many different scenarios for how many units of Germany's forces will join in the attack. The scenarios below are based on how many aircraft are destroyed either by AA guns or by the Russian attacks (which can destroy one with some effort and the other with extreme difficulty), and whether or not a transport is sunk, as well as the probability of the main naval battle (the odds for the battle off Gibraltar are unknown but probably in the high 90s). It is more important for fighters to survive than for the battleship to destroy an enemy unit. While the last unit Germany can afford to lose is its Bomber, not its tank, the change in probability this causes is relatively small.

Sea Battle odds (give up subs first, then fighters, then destroyer. If things go badly, a transport my be given up, the odds of needing to give up 2 are negligible).

British Battleship and Transport with Russian Sub 86%
British Battleship and Russian Sub 96%
Remaining possibilities are more or less 100%

Land Battle Odds 7 Transports 6 Transports
4 Fighters, Battleship hits 98% 96%
4 Fighters 94% 91%
3 Fighters 88% 80%
2 Fighters 75% 63%
1 Fighter 56% 41%

Alternate Scenarios: If Great Britain does not build 5 infantry and 3 tanks (its best build), and goes for fighters instead, the odds get worse for it. If it builds naval units, it would mean that more German Fighters are diverted to the sea battle, but there would be less British land troops to defend during the second phase of attack. Attacking the German Navy with its air force would cost Great Britain more than Germany (especially if the subs are given up first, with additional fighters sent for the sea battle). It the British fleet attempts to land troops in western europe, even with air support, they would lose more than Germany would and have less units to defend with, and Germany should have additional troops if possible in Western Europe anyway.

In short, this strategy will guarentee success the majority of the time, and if the allies make any mistakes, the odds get much better. The great majority of the time the axis will have 2-3 fighters left and 6-7 transports, meaning that their odds tend to be around 73-79% in a typical combat layout.

This strategy ignores the possibilities of weapons development, which in general would mean the Britain would have less troops even if their remaining troops are improved.

The main problem with this strategy is that it sucks all the fun out of the game, for it means that most of the time setting up the board is wasted, and could just simple roll a die and give axis victory on a 1-4 and allies victory on a 5-6. In effect it "breaks" the game, revealing that the initially functional game can become quite dysfunctional.

I used the Axis and Allies probability calculator for my numbers, with some modifications fo special cases involving battleships.

Can you find any flaws in the logic of this plan, or is the classic truly cracked?

 
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Philip Thomas
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Yeah, I noticed the "America, which has been busy against Japan" clause...

Other point- why can't Russia sink some of the German fleet in the Baltic with its air units? Or even just fly straight to Britain from Karelia, every little helps.
 
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wodan wodan
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Re: Take London in two turns. Odds start at 56% and then go
Hmm, the russian move can be disrupted by using only air units to participate in the mediterranean battle, then the mediterranean fleet to move in the noncombat to sea zone 12, so that it can join in the sea battle the next turn, while the 2 fighters normally reserved for the sea battle would join the land battle instead.

On the other hand, neither fleet can block the 2 transports from sea zone 10. The win on second turn attack will fail if the allies are smart enough to disrupt.

That does not mean however, that this ploy is useless. Even if the attack on britain could be blunted, the German fleet can simply move to sea zone that can threaten both Washington DC and London simultaneously. Now America will also have to spend its hard earned money to blunt This will force both America and Great Britain to concentrate a substantial defensive force while their naval units are systematically sunk. An air attack would be blunted once the the battleship joins with the other fleet, and by the time an air force becomes a true threat, an assault could be conducted on one side or another. While this lacks the easy victory the first plan had, it should still have a solid chance of winning, depending on how well Germany can juggle its airforce between attacking Great Britain and defending against Russia.

With both countries preoccupied to some degree with the german fleet, Japan can busy itself with building 2 industrial complexes, churning out tanks, and attacking Eastern Russia, China, and India. Great Britain will be less able to place an industrial complex in India, and same for the US with China. This also takes some of Russia's pressure off Germany, who while a short of 96 ipcs spent on the invasion fleet, will still outproduce Russia by a large margin.

Its a crazy plan, but it just might work.

 
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Valdir Jorge
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Now you're talking!
Hi Wodan!

You wrote:
Its a crazy plan

Ah, now you're talking!

























Don't you just hate when people quote you out of context? shake
 
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Robert Bradford
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If the British suicide their airforce into the baltic fleet of destroyer, sub, sub, five transports, they can expect to leave you with a destroyer and 3 1/3 transports.

Coupled with an aircraft carrier/destroyer purchase in the North Sea (the carrier can be filled with Allied fighters), and fleet unification, and America moving troops to England, I think that the invasion of England is very low percentage indeed. There's just too much to do.

There are tactical gains in this approach, though. You do get to whack the English fleet, and you can even go battle the American fleet with your battleship and bomber if you feel up to it, although I don't like it much. The English are left with no navy, no air force, and no factory in India or Africa. I have my air force, likely no navy (I can keep my navy and lose my airforce, but I somehow expect that the Americans will have built some planes to send to England, and I can't get the navy out of range of them and still have it do anything useful).

The down side, of course, is that I'm giving the Russians a free turn and not doing anything to hurt the Allies in terms of production, which I would be if I were conquering Africa.

I tend to think that this approach is a losing one. Better, I think, to build a carrier and three transports in the Baltic, and then move planes up from Germany. The British have to respect the possibility of an invasion, and the fleet is much more maintainable.

I don't think this is the best Axis strategy, but it's certainly a reasonable one. Fleets are strong.
 
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Jack Kazumoto
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Re: Take London in two turns. Odds start at 56% and then go
fleets don't win you capitals.

if you want to build up a fleet, build nothing but destroyers. they pack the biggest bang for your buck. Once you have a stack, research combined bombardment. you want england to fall? build up a fleet of 8-10 destroyers and a transport, offload a single infantry into the uk, and bombard away. repeat, turn after turn, all the while building a transport and a destroyer. By the time you've emptied out england of both the UK forces holding it and any US reinforcements, you'll be able to walk in all of those land units, making your odds of holding london much more likely, considering that your fleet can blockade any US transports, you'll have the AA gun and a healthy amount of land units. Once you've got London secure, just crank out infantry there and use the rest of your IPCs against russia. The US will have only a few options: coming up through africa, trying a norway invasion, or going all-out on Japan.

the one thing to look out for is mother russia. limit yourself to one destroyer and transport per turn, and put the rest into tanks, which will help with the give and take on the eastern front. the trick is to keep russia occupied and at bay long enough to crack open UK's treasury, which you can then spend on dismantling the then menacing russian juggernaught of troops and tanks. it means being agressive with russia, slowly bombarding the UK to crap, and ignoring the US invasion of africa.
 
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cree dawg
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Re: Take London in two turns. Odds start at 56% and then go
Here is what i would do if that strategy would be applied to me.
On britain's first turn, I would buy 3 fighters, take the 2 fighters and one bomber and sink a good majority of your little warparty in the sea. Then i would move my remaining uk fleet in the way of your baltic fleet. On usa's first turn, I would take all eastern forces in my transport and drop them off in africa, now that will stop your battleship for one turn, buying me more than enough time to maneuver my reinforcements. My fighter from the east would move to uk for "just in case defence" but most of your transports have been sunk from the air assault. I would then move my bomber to uk and add insult to injury and proceed to bomb the hell out of germany.

You see, you must be careful on what you spend on the opening 2 turns, any missions you wish to launch must succeed or the money wasted could potentially cripple your forces for the rest of the game.
 
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wesley chang
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It's extremely easy to counter a 5 transport buy.

The UK purchases 5 inf 3 tanks, lands the tank from canada into London the USSR lands 2 fighters in London (they can reach from Moscow where they should be positioned), and the USSR sub goes to SZ12 so the battleship/transport in the Mediterranean can't offload into Britain on turn 2, the US lands 2 inf 1 tank 1 art into London and 1 fig 1 bomber into London.

End of story, your invasion has a low chance of succeeding, at best you could be pitting 6 inf 6 tank 6 fighter 1 bomber against 9 infantry 2 art 6 tank 5 fighters 2 bombers 1 aa gun. That's approximatley 99% for the defending forces to win. If the Russian fighters were out of position for some reason in Caucasus, the defenders still have about 92% to win. I just don't see your 54% for the Axis to win if the Allies are playing correctly. Building zero ground troops is going to hurt you very bad when Russia starts pushing in next turn. It doesn't matter that the UK didn't build their complex in India, a complex in India is a bad move in any case.

By the way, the UK shouldn't even bother to try to block the Baltic fleet from attacking in this scenario. It doesn't accomplish much.
 
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Jack Kazumoto
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Re: Take London in two turns. Odds start at 56% and then go
The only real way to take london early is if you're playing with:

1)long-range aircraft
2)immediate effect of tech.

the well documented method in this case is simply spending nearly all of your IPC's on long range aircraft tech, then using all of your fighters and anything else you can land there on turn one to take UK before it even gets a chance to play.

If successful, your possesion of london albeit brief thanks to the US is incredibly effective since it essentially delays the UK's involvement until the fourth turn, and anything you spend on the attack (IPCs for tech, land units, a plane or two) will be just about made up at the end of the turn with the extra 38 IPCs you've gained from taking merry old england.
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Don Carmichael
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And if that doesn't work, you can just go kill yourself because you won't win
Also, a single sub back behind the UK blows the whole plan since it has to be sunk first. The problem is that when you build the 5 transports, you might as well tell them you're going to invade, because it is SO obvious. Russian fighters, american fighters, sea units, US ground units, all kinds of British units, everything, will come. It is a possibility to consider, but you must find a way to make it more insidious.
 
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Ben Ibach
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BobbyChicken wrote:
It is a possibility to consider, but you must find a way to make it more insidious.
Actually, there is a way that is more insidious.

There are 28 pages of analysis of the Baltic over at Caspian Sub.
http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/Caspian_Sub/

Policy Papers 11, 12, and 14 deal with this move.

In short, here's how you set it up without overcommitting to the move:

1. R1 Germany builds 2 transports in the Baltic (3 transports depending on player)
2. If the UK goes KJF or some other odd strategy, THEN you build an additional 5 transports. That gives you at least 8 (and as many as 10) transports. This move is called the Land Bridge for obvious reasons.

If the circumstances aren't right for invading London, use the 2tra to suicide attack the Allied boats and buy a round or two for Germany.

If you play against a guy that regularly builds the IIC (India Industrial Complex), you will have a REALLY fun game.

Good luck.


 
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cree dawg
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Re: Take London in two turns. Odds start at 56% and then go
CrazyStraw wrote:


If you play against a guy that regularly builds the IIC (India Industrial Complex), you will have a REALLY fun game.

Good luck.



Are you saying that the India IC is a bad idea? Plus your talking about buying 5 transports, you don't think that will set you back a great deal on your Russian front? If someone is very skilled at playing with Russia, then you could have just shortened the game a lot buy doing what you are talking about. Forget trying to take UK unless you are at the point of making Russia stack up on infantry on Moscow, or else you might as well just let the Russians right in to berlin. I have seen uk taken before and not even phase the allies because germany poured so much money into it.
 
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Ben Ibach
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Quote:
Are you saying that the India IC is a bad idea?
Actually I'm saying that the IIC is a terrible idea. I've said it many times in fact

In a tournament game with points for victory cities it can be strong. But in a domination game it is a mistake.

Quote:
Forget trying to take UK
Well, last year at GenCon I took it twice in the Mega Tournament and in a third game I had 70%+ odds of taking it and got dice whipped. This year at Origins I took London in the only game I played as the Axis. So I have a few reasons to think that "forgetting" about taking London is bad advice. I suspect London falls far less often than it should because people don't know what to look for.

Go read some of the Caspian Sub stuff. And go get into the major tournaments. You'll have a lot of fun.

Peace
 
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cree dawg
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Re: Take London in two turns. Odds start at 56% and then go
I don't like the tourny rules and very few are up my way anyways, but playing with out of the box rules, IIC is still a great idea, if the USA doesn't help out in the Atlantic then I would say yeah, it is possible to take UK pretty easily, but you would be leaving your Russian front open or thin.
 
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Don Carmichael
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"Actually, there is a way that is more insidious."
Duh, my point was that this odds start at 56% and then go up strategy is BS.
 
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Seth
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Don't forget the two russian fighters that can be sent to the UK if really necessary! But I guess this "break" has been fixed, don't you?
 
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tim castro
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Lol.

Creative. But you must be basing this on playing a retarted allied player to doesn't know how to adapt and play team defense.
The allies have the edge, all they have to do is make the axis pay for whatever they chose to value less.

You cannot stop 2 russian fighters, 1 american fighter, and 1 american bomber joining the call to aid britain in defense (choosing to lose bombers first on defense). Add this to britain in the 1st round buying 10 men (better than 5 men, 3 tanks b/c requires more german hits while 5 allied fighters hit hard), making a total battle of:

Axis/Attacker: 7 men, 7 tanks, 6 fighters, 1 bomber
Allies/Defender: 12 men, 1 art., 2 tanks (1 from canada you can't top from coming over), 2 bombers (which will be lost first) and 5 fighters (2 russians can even make it from moscow).

Giving you the best odds for your idea, i.e. battleship hits man (I'm sorry, bomber) every time and no fighters are lost by antiaircraft -

Your odds come out to:

41.6% with pure luck . . . I'll beat you 3 out of 5 times, taking the series every time.

That's also assuming that you can figure out how to stop the american 2 men, 1 art., and 1 tank from landing on britain as well. Stick a sub in a way, and allies will force sub to submerge and then non-combat there way over to england.

then odds are:

4.4% . . .

That was an interesting idea though
Tim
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Terence Goh
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trihero wrote:
It's extremely easy to counter a 5 transport buy.

The UK purchases 5 inf 3 tanks, lands the tank from canada into London the USSR lands 2 fighters in London (they can reach from Moscow where they should be positioned), and the USSR sub goes to SZ12 so the battleship/transport in the Mediterranean can't offload into Britain on turn 2, the US lands 2 inf 1 tank 1 art into London and 1 fig 1 bomber into London.


just a point that the russian player would have to predict this german gamble to send its fighters to britain and they hadn't sent it somewhere else out of range during turn 1

i tried a variant of this strat against my friends and it worked superbly with a bit of luck. i agree with much of the criticism because it was really an all or nothing approach and it boiled down to a few lucky rolls e.g. my sub sinking the russian sub blocking my mediterranean force and his AA gun not shooting down a single one of my 7 fighters and 1 bomber. in the end, it's a game killer since everyone knows what's going to happen and how the game will end following the outcome. you might as well just start the game with the invasion if you're planning this.
 
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