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Subject: How much luck? rss

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Billy McBoatface
United States
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KGS is the #1 web site for playing go over the internet. Visit now!
Yes, I really am that awesome.
I just did a quick analysis of galloping pigs. The move space is small enough that a computer can brute force through all possible moves in under a second, so analysis is fairly easy.

If your opponent moves randomly, most starting hands have a strategy that will let you keep your vegetables at least 80% of the time - being able to keep them 95% of the time is not unusual. Often the "best" pig to move is nonobvious. For example, if the pigs start with pig "A" in front and pig "E" in back, and your starting hand is AABCCCD, then your best starting move is actually pig B, which gives you an 86.8% chance of keeping your vegetables, and an average score (assuming you do keep your cards) of 4.90. All this indicates that a well-written computer player of galloping pigs should be quite good - I know that I don't keep my veggies anywhere near 80%+ of the time!

I'll try to do more analysis later, to see how this changes if your opponent moves intelligently. That will be substantially more difficult however, and I may run out of time/interest...we'll see.
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